Election 2024 Thread - Page 14 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15208371
Doug64 wrote:I agree that there are probably a few Republicans that agree with Democrats that many of their voters are too stupid or lazy to jump through the few hoops needed to protect voter integrity. Why else would Democrats be so desperate to make permanent (and universal) the often unconstitutional "emergency" relaxation of voter integrity laws last time? Unlike some I don't think that Democrats see the relaxed rules they are pushing as an opportunity to cheat, I think they just don't care so long as it gives them a chance to win the presidency in 2024.


Honest question (not trying to be snarky): Why do you think either of the major parties cares about "voter integrity."
#15208378
Is civil society dying? My grandparents did not behave like this. They wouldn't even use profanity, and violence and nudity on TV offended their sensibilities. They were kind to their neighbours and weren't greedy. What exactly are we doing here?
User avatar
By colliric
#15208385
Unthinking Majority wrote:Is civil society dying? My grandparents did not behave like this. They wouldn't even use profanity, and violence and nudity on TV offended their sensibilities. They were kind to their neighbours and weren't greedy. What exactly are we doing here?


Caving in to woke madness. Go back to your country's traditional values and your country will recover.



... Next time accept the damn result when a Republican wins, no matter who they are.

Otherwise the Republicans will get REVENGE in your own party's next term.

Stop calling your political opponents Nazis when they're not. You're just being shown videos of the lunatic fringe, most Trump voters/supporters supported him because of his good economic and taxation reform policies which are needed. It had nothing to do with whitelash or racism for most of his voters.

Trump at least understands Wall Street and the IRS inside out. Gordon Gekko was literally based on him. Hillary was in their pocket.
#15208386
colliric wrote:... Next time accept the damn result when a Republican wins, no matter who they are.

Otherwise the Republicans will get REVENGE in your own party's next term.

Stop calling your political opponents Nazis when they're not. You're just being shown videos of the lunatic fringe, most Trump voters/supporters supported him because of his good economic and taxation reform policies which are needed. It had nothing to do with whitelash or racism for most of his voters.

I keep asking for evidence, links, of this supposed "steal". Nobody has ever provided them.

Trump is a con-man. Until I see evidence otherwise I believe you have been conned. Trump is gaslighting the entire nation trying to question the truth of their own reality.
User avatar
By colliric
#15208388
Actually that's what Jen Psaki just did, under the orders of her boss.

Why doesn't she just quit? Most Press Secretaries would have quit by now. Fuck that Marie Antoinette crap.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15208390
Unthinking Majority wrote:Is civil society dying? My grandparents did not behave like this. They wouldn't even use profanity, and violence and nudity on TV offended their sensibilities. They were kind to their neighbours and weren't greedy. What exactly are we doing here?


I think civility is seriously wounded. We can't underestimate the damage heated political rhetoric has caused. My guess is that I am probably about the age of your grandparents. And we did not behave like this. One thing for sure. Only the very rare party ideologues thought of the opposition as the enemy.

My mother was a Republican and my father a Democrat. My mother did not like Roosevelt or Truman and my father liked both of them. Nowadays they could not be married. They would likely not even associate with each other.

Congress can't pass a bill. Nothing except bills that cater to the very wealthy and those only because they have a constituency that matters.

I fear we have gone too far. Every decision by every leader is challenged in court. The government has no "room" to govern.

One thing we can say for Trump is that he simply ignored the press. He knew that their primary job was to sell soap. He knew that the more outrageous he was the more air time he got. And he is truly a mean man. He really does not care about others. (At least others he can't have sex with.)

We have not raised the minimum wage in decades. The middle class is disappearing. Prices are going up and housing is going up faster. In fact, private ownership is not growing. The value of my house has gone up 25% in less than a year. A new buyer would have to be in mid six figures to afford it and it is a nice but not over-the-top house. Two school teachers, both working full time, have trouble finding a house they can afford. In many markets, one entire salary would go to rent/payments and a piece of the child care.

Things are not good in the US and people are starting to speak easily about violence. The invasion of the Congress should have shaken all of us to our core. It did not. And those far right fanatics who did it are numerous and undeterred. The upcoming Republican landslide might mollify them for a time but they are still hankering for a dust up.

I do not envy young Americans. Things are going to be really rough fairly soon. Using the term fascist is not the problem. The problem is fascists. The problem is not vaccine mandates. It is people who think that being vaccinate has something to do with politics. (And that is all on the Republican side.) The Republican leadership decided that they could make hay with this issue and watched as a million Americans died needlessly right before their eyes. And here is the real problem. We are not outraged.

One third of the people want to kill one third of the people while the other one third of the people watches.

@Unthinking Majority
I keep asking for evidence, links, of this supposed "steal". Nobody has ever provided them.

Trump is a con-man. Until I see evidence otherwise I believe you have been conned. Trump is gaslighting the entire nation trying to question the truth of their own reality.


They have been conned for sure. The election was not stolen. People who actually believe that are not intelligent. I mean that literally. Unintelligent people tend to be highly suggestible. But many of the people who say they believe it don't really. They know that it is controlling their unintelligent pawns and so they play along.

What will Trump's second term be? Well better than any of the other likely Republican candidates. Oddly, it would be good for the rest of us, if a Republican has to win, that it be Trump. He is so inept and unfocused that it limits the damage he can do. He really does not give a shit about any issues at all. He is in this for the Helicopters and military sycophants.

I am a lifelong Republican, white male, affluent, regular person. He is not out to get me. If you are not like me, duck.
User avatar
By colliric
#15208396
He gives a shit about the IRS, the US Dollar and the well-being of the economy.

He is in fact an expert on those particular topics, which in a post Global Financial Crisis era is extremely important. Irrelevant that it's for pretty much the exact same reasons Jordan Belfort also is an expert on such topics.

Intelligent people who supported him, did so because he in fact a financial expert and Wall Street veteran.

Same reason many people supported Reagan back in the day. An expert in being in front of the camera due to his film and television experience, as is correctly noted in Back To The Future. It was actually extremely important he be an expert in presenting himself in front of the camera.

"No wonder your President's an actor, he's gotta look good on Television!"
User avatar
By Drlee
#15208398
Are you talking about President Trump?



Intelligent people who supported him, did so because he in fact a financial expert and Wall Street veteran.


No he isn't. Not either. He is a real estate investor and showman. Nothing wrong with that but he knows nothing about Wall Street.
#15208399
Drlee wrote:No he isn't. Not either. He is a real estate investor and showman. Nothing wrong with that but he knows nothing about Wall Street.


His NYC address is literally 40 Wall Street. He literally lives there when in New York. And everyone knows Gordon Gekko is based directly on Trump and the teldar "Greed is Good" corporate political speech is inspired by his 80s presidential aspirations, Oliver Stone's said that since the 1980s and so has Douglas.

In reality Wall Street draws individuals like Trump, he's basically the physical embodiment of 1980's yuppie-era Wall Street. Like most wall street investors, he's had successes and his Theranos-like crash and burn failures(Murdoch and a few others took a nice bath on that loss, Elizabeth Holmes might be safer in Jail at the moment).
User avatar
By colliric
#15208413
Unthinking Majority wrote:Huh?


My advice to everyone out there who's frustrated, sad, angry, pissed off, feel those emotions, go to a kickboxing class, have a margarita...


Classic "Marie Antoinette" Gaslighting. And as the press secretary she has in fact been instructed to say things like this.
By Doug64
#15208490
quetzalcoatl wrote:Honest question (not trying to be snarky): Why do you think either of the major parties cares about "voter integrity."

I think there's two groups of people that have major concerns about voter integrity--those that honestly believe that the 2020 election was stolen through traditional fraud, and those voters that really don't want a repeat of 2020 and see strengthening voter integrity laws as a way to restore public confidence. For who should be concerned about voter integrity? Anyone that votes in state and local elections, or even for the House of Representatives. Wikipedia keeps a list of tied and close elections that anyone who doesn't care about voter integrity laws should take a look at.

Drlee wrote:I think, at this point, the Democratic Party has little to no chance to take the presidency in 2024 unless:

I agree, in an "if this goes on" sort of way. Right now, with things the way they are, I don't see a single Democratic politician that could beat even Trump. Of course, domestically things are almost certain to improve (though not anywhere fast enough to save the Democrats in the House and maybe not fast enough to save the Democrats in the Senate).

The new Republican controlled House and Senate repeal Obama care or cut Social Security. These two things could cost them the 2024 election on their own.

The only way I see either of those happening is if Republicans win veto-proof majorities in both houses of Congress. And I think there's as much chance of that as flapping my arms and flying to the Moon.

The abortion bans do not favor Democrats because they are only happening in bright red states. The repeal of Roe V. Wade through allowing states broad leeway to limit abortions will also play into Republican hands. Women do not vote the issues it would appear and again, the states where this issue matters are already bright blue.

If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade it may well be a major issue in the election. The states where abortion is going to be a major issue at the state level are where public opinion is closely divided, and some of those are battleground states: Arizona (49% legal in all/most cases / 46% illegal in all/most cases), North Carolina (49% / 45%) Georgia (48% / 49%), & Ohio (48% / 47%).

Trump could lose the election for Republicans but I don't think he will run. If the Republicans run anything even remotely resembling a moderate they will take 2024 in a landslide. But for Trump to win he has to start playing elder statesman and mature politician. Yea Right.

If Trump runs he'll be able to point to his record in comparison to Biden's and ask if any other Democrat could do better, but he could well lose the primaries to, say, Ron DeSantis. He was able to win the primaries in 2016 because of a divided opposition, and that won't be as likely this time. Anne Coulter had an interesting column on that recently (though I don't necessarily agree with her on Trump's likely impact on the 2022 election), when she took a deeper look into a poll recently cited by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight:

The Message in the Polls: Trump’s Done
Our media are obsessed with Donald Trump, but Trump’s obsessed with Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. For months now, Trump’s been playing the aging silent film star Norma Desmond in “Sunset Boulevard” to DeSantis’ younger, prettier Betty Schaefer.

Amid the hourly, annoying group emails to Trump’s list — “YOU are one of my TOP supporters!” — there was one from Roger Stone on Nov. 2, 2021, denouncing DeSantis.

The insults sounded a lot like what Trump used to say about Stone: “Ron’s own piss-poor campaign …,” “without really delivering on his Trump-like rhetoric …,” “Governor DeSantis has failed …” and so on.

The title of this diatribe was: “WILL RON DESANTIS TAKE THE PLEDGE?” Can you guess what “the pledge” is? That is correct: not to challenge Trump for president in 2024.

Only because it was “from” Stone, a smart guy who sadly prostrated himself on the altar of Trump, did I open it. Then, I shook my head and deleted it.

Evidently, others on the Trump email list responded with more rancor.

One week later, Stone sent out a follow-up email frantically backpedaling, noting that “many” recipients of his recent email were “surprised” by his attacks on DeSantis. The crow-eating letter ended by pleading with Stone’s critics to “Please take a moment to read what I have actually said …”

That must’ve been some blowback!

No one wants Trump. He’s fading faster than Sarah Palin did — and she was second place on a losing presidential ticket. In case you don’t remember, for three years following that loss, Palin was packing stadiums with tens of thousands of Trump-like fans.

But by 2011, even she — a far smarter politician than Trump who did not spend her time whining about the last election, wallowing in self-pity or endorsing candidates because they once said something nice about her golf course — had faded. She was fun, but Republicans were starting to think seriously about the 2012 presidential election.

Trump is already two years ahead of Palin’s fade-out schedule. After his petulant endorsements this year deliver loss after loss in midterm elections that ought to be a blowout landslide for the GOP, he’ll be as popular as former Missouri Rep. Todd Akin.

As many Republicans will bitterly recall, Trump has already lost two Senate seats for Republicans in the 2021 Georgia runoffs. So far this year, he’s on track to lose — at least — another Senate race in Georgia, as well as the governor’s mansion.

Sure, thousands of people show up to his heavily advertised rallies, but they’re all the exact same people. His die-hard fans — or, as he calls them, “future Trump University students” — are like Deadheads, following him from venue to venue, dressing up in wild costumes and listening to the same songs.

Some conservatives who would never again vote for Trump wear MAGA hats, but that’s just an identity badge, like liberals wearing masks. Trump happens to be the last Republican president, and the media lose their minds over him. Wearing a “Trump” hat is the most efficient way to say, “Screw you, media.”

This is why the media’s neurotic fixation on Trump is baffling to normal people. TV hosts keep telling us that Trump is wildly popular — the 2024 nomination is his for the asking! — but facts on the ground suggest otherwise.

It turns out the media are using a sleight of hand to claim that Trump is popular with Republicans.

Nate Silver’s respected website fivethirtyeight recently announced: “Republicans remain loyal to Trump even after Jan. 6 attack,” citing a poll that shows Trump’s approval among Republicans at nearly 80%.

But there’s a lot more to the story. The poll allows readers to view Trump’s approval not only among all voters (-14%) but among specific subgroups of all voters: men, women, Blacks, Hispanics and whites, as well as any combination of these demographic subgroups. And get this: Trump doesn’t have as much as 25% net approval among any subgroup — other than “Republicans.”

Females have a negative 24% net favorable opinion of Trump. OK, fine, women don’t like him. Show me “men.” Men have a negative 3% net favorable opinion of Trump. That’s pretty much a full set. Who’s left?

I tried whites — the base of the Republican Party (and the demographic that decides every election, despite the unshakable beliefs of GOP donors). Whites have a meager 4% net favorable opinion of Trump.

We’re running out of demographics that might like Trump.

Maybe it was that massive Hispanic vote for Trump that I’ve been hearing so much about! Hispanics: negative 44% net favorable for Trump. Blacks? Negative 85% net favorable.

White men? Fourteen percent net favorable opinion of Trump. (That’s not even going to win you Alabama, Republicans.)

Non-college graduates? Negative 12% net favorable.

How about non-college-educated white men? The beating heart of the Trump base is only 23% net favorable toward Trump.

So how is it possible that 77% of “Republicans” — net — have a favorable opinion of Trump? There’s no other subgroup of the electorate that has even a third of that.

The only explanation is that an awful lot of Republicans are now calling themselves “Independents.”

Huh. Why might that be?

Maybe it’s because, day in, day out, the media tell us that the GOP is “the Party of Trump”! Apparently, this has led a lot of Republicans to conclude that they must not be Republicans, after all. (At least, among the Republicans contacted by these pollsters. I assume they didn’t have any respondents in Florida, where “Republican” has a much more favorable connotation.)

Thanks to the media’s lies, the only people calling themselves “Republicans” these days are the Trump die-hards. In other words, the blockbuster conclusion of this poll is: Trump die-hards like Trump!

Yes — and they’re the only ones who do. While Trump fanatics are indeed fanatical, everyone else is sick and tired of his nonsense.

Give voters a populist conservative who’s not a conman and a liar and they’ll be “Republicans” again. No wonder Trump hates DeSantis.
By Doug64
#15212816
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So most of the states have finished redistricting (though there are some lawsuits, including one targeting New York that IMHO actually has a chance). So here's where Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the House:

Safe Republican: 129
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 7
Toss-Up: 18
Leans Democrat: 10
Likely Democrat: 25
Safe Democrat: 135

Republicans (152): 157
Democrats (183): 178

So that still leaves 100 House seats that the Crystal Ball isn't predicting yet, but so far the edge goes to the Democrats--they've had some real success gerrymandering this census, maybe Republicans pick up a five seats (so far). But gerrymandering carries a risk, what if the election trends Republican? Then it could look something like this:

Republicans: 164 (+12)
Democrats: 171

And what if it's a Republican blowout? It could look like this:

Republicans: 172 (+20)
Democrats: 163

It'll be interesting to see how the last hundred seats play out.
By pugsville
#15212823
colliric wrote:Caving in to woke madness. Go back to your country's traditional values and your country will recover.



... Next time accept the damn result when a Republican wins, no matter who they are.

Otherwise the Republicans will get REVENGE in your own party's next term.

Stop calling your political opponents Nazis when they're not. You're just being shown videos of the lunatic fringe, most Trump voters/supporters supported him because of his good economic and taxation reform policies which are needed. It had nothing to do with whitelash or racism for most of his voters.

Trump at least understands Wall Street and the IRS inside out. Gordon Gekko was literally based on him. Hillary was in their pocket.


Really? There is only one party bitching and moaning about elections results and it;s not the dems.

It is Trump and many republicans carrying on about election results without being able to produce one shred of acceptable evidence. Who got their arses handed too them in court and still pissing and moaning,


Comeback to actual reality rather than this imagined fictional narrative.
By Doug64
#15212830
pugsville wrote:Really? There is only one party bitching and moaning about elections results and it;s not the dems.

Washington Post poll from October 2017:

Regardless of whom you supported in the 2016 election, do you think Donald Trump’s election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?

Legitimate: 57%
Not legitimate: 42%
No opinion: 1%

Axios|Momentive Poll, from just last month:

Do you accept Joe Biden as having legitimately won the 2020 presidential election?

Yes: 55%
No: 26%
Not sure: 16%
No answer: 3%
By pugsville
#15212834
Doug64 wrote:Washington Post poll from October 2017:

Regardless of whom you supported in the 2016 election, do you think Donald Trump’s election as president was legitimate, or was he not legitimately elected?

Legitimate: 57%
Not legitimate: 42%
No opinion: 1%

Axios|Momentive Poll, from just last month:


here one that says 74% thought the 2016 election legitimate,.




Do you accept Joe Biden as having legitimately won the 2020 presidential election?

Yes: 55%
No: 26%
Not sure: 16%
No answer: 3%


There lies, dammed lies and then there are polls....

though i skeptical of files downloaded from random palaces on the internet.



https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/74-call ... d=43491609


Hilary conceded the election,. Trump and his supporters are loudly declaring they won the election they lost, they were many law suits filed contesting the election. Almost all dismissed without any merit at all as not meeting the minimum standard of evidence,


If you claiming the demos cried harder and louder in 2016 that trumpists in 2020 you got reality dysfunction problems,


Jeeez can we have some basic honesty.
User avatar
By BlutoSays
#15213001
Drlee wrote:I think civility is seriously wounded. We can't underestimate the damage heated political rhetoric has caused. My guess is that I am probably about the age of your grandparents. And we did not behave like this. One thing for sure. Only the very rare party ideologues thought of the opposition as the enemy.

My mother was a Republican and my father a Democrat. My mother did not like Roosevelt or Truman and my father liked both of them. Nowadays they could not be married. They would likely not even associate with each other.

Congress can't pass a bill. Nothing except bills that cater to the very wealthy and those only because they have a constituency that matters.

I fear we have gone too far. Every decision by every leader is challenged in court. The government has no "room" to govern.

One thing we can say for Trump is that he simply ignored the press. He knew that their primary job was to sell soap. He knew that the more outrageous he was the more air time he got. And he is truly a mean man. He really does not care about others. (At least others he can't have sex with.)

We have not raised the minimum wage in decades. The middle class is disappearing. Prices are going up and housing is going up faster. In fact, private ownership is not growing. The value of my house has gone up 25% in less than a year. A new buyer would have to be in mid six figures to afford it and it is a nice but not over-the-top house. Two school teachers, both working full time, have trouble finding a house they can afford. In many markets, one entire salary would go to rent/payments and a piece of the child care.

Things are not good in the US and people are starting to speak easily about violence. The invasion of the Congress should have shaken all of us to our core. It did not. And those far right fanatics who did it are numerous and undeterred. The upcoming Republican landslide might mollify them for a time but they are still hankering for a dust up.

I do not envy young Americans. Things are going to be really rough fairly soon. Using the term fascist is not the problem. The problem is fascists. The problem is not vaccine mandates. It is people who think that being vaccinate has something to do with politics. (And that is all on the Republican side.) The Republican leadership decided that they could make hay with this issue and watched as a million Americans died needlessly right before their eyes. And here is the real problem. We are not outraged.

One third of the people want to kill one third of the people while the other one third of the people watches.

@Unthinking Majority
I keep asking for evidence, links, of this supposed "steal". Nobody has ever provided them.



They have been conned for sure. The election was not stolen. People who actually believe that are not intelligent. I mean that literally. Unintelligent people tend to be highly suggestible. But many of the people who say they believe it don't really. They know that it is controlling their unintelligent pawns and so they play along.

What will Trump's second term be? Well better than any of the other likely Republican candidates. Oddly, it would be good for the rest of us, if a Republican has to win, that it be Trump. He is so inept and unfocused that it limits the damage he can do. He really does not give a shit about any issues at all. He is in this for the Helicopters and military sycophants.

I am a lifelong Republican, white male, affluent, regular person. He is not out to get me. If you are not like me, duck.



Civility is wounded. Ya think?

Image




Are you sure about that, Drlee???




hxxps://www.reddit.com/r/ActualPublicFr ... ob_in_nyc/



Say it ain't so.
By Doug64
#15213169
Speaking of the growing divisions in the US, there's what Rhodes Cook calls "The Big Sort"--the growing number of counties that gave 80%+ of the vote to Republican or Democratic presidential candidates.

In the presidential election of 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush won the popular and electoral vote (the only Republican to do so in the last third of a century), less than 200 of the nation’s 3,100 or so counties (and independent cities) were decided by 80% of the major-party vote. By 2012, when Mitt Romney lost the popular vote to Barack Obama by 4 percentage points — roughly the same margin that Donald J. Trump lost nationwide to Biden in 2020 — the number of “super landslide” counties had crept up to nearly 300. But in 2016, the total of these counties exploded to more than 670, and by 2020 was approaching 700. That translates into 22% of all the nation’s counties.

To be sure, the blowout counties in 2020 cast just 8% of the national two-party vote (11.9 million of 155.5 million). But the trend line has been clear for decades now, with more and more of the country, both territorially and population-wise, living in “sorted” counties.”

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