Russia returns to her natural boundaries in the 2020's. - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15208422
noemon wrote:Is that supposed to make it ok? :knife:


Nope. I'm just being realistic. Same with Taiwan, I think it's highly likely the CCP will get their way there eventually now. It's not what I want to happen though.

Edit:


Ukraine - We need guns, soldiers, naval, air and land military support right now! Putin is doing an Abe Lincoln on us!

Trudeau - Here's a $120 million dollar taxpayer funded loan for "economic resilience and development"

Typical Canadians. My dad worked buying military parts for the RAAF, they always bought shit from Europe(Germany, they bought lots of stuff from Germany especially), Russia (yep!) and the USA for a reason, never from Canada.

"Internal Commonwealth politics, Canada is our main rival, they can't be relied on for support. They didn't send any help to us fighting the Japanese in Papua New Guinea during WW2".
#15208463
colliric wrote:Nope. I'm just being realistic. Same with Taiwan, I think it's highly likely the CCP will get their way there eventually now. It's not what I want to happen though.


The two cases couldn't be more different. Ukraine has largely decoupled itself economically from Russia.

Ukraine, exports of goods by destination, % of total goods exports, 2012-2018:
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While for Taiwan Mainland China and Hong Kong are more important than ever.

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On top of that, China's growth potential is far higher than Russia's.

All signs point towards Russia's decline, externally and internally.
#15208609
Beyond the Ukraine invasion (which is a given-only question is are we looking at partial annexation + puppet or total annexation) the rest is unpredictable at this point.

I think Russia would not go further than Moldova - but if Romania, Poland and Bulgaria keep piling on hostile American led forces then anything could happen. The Baltics are utterly exposed, it would be the quickest, cleanest deletion connecting kaliningrad with Russia and belarus. US and British troops in NATO bases would be surrounded then kindly evacuated with Russian assistance.

NATO would be stuck sitting there looking stupid facing a global nuclear exchange over useless little republics that brought absolutely nothing to the alliance. I think Putin's circle has done the math.

Finland is ripe for the taking too - if it starts moving toward nato. I think the fins will sooner oust their government than allow that to happen, for obvious reasons. Finland has cordial relations with Russia, any move toward nato would be purely US based pressure on the finnish regime and highly unpopular with the public in finland. And even if the propaganda turns public perception around in record time, Finland would be liable to deletion by Russia long before it formalized any sort of meaningful US overlordship.

Then going beyond that we have some dramatic but nonetheless possible scenarios as to how Russia could divide and conquer NATO in real-time should they come to limited conventional blows and especially if Turkey went full Ottoderp. Eg. offer Poland western Ukraine (Lviv). Offer Romania Moldova. Offer Greece Istanbul....suddenly NATO loses Poland, Romania, Greece...

And Germany has been dragging its feet all this time. It really does not want a conflict with Russia. Certain Russian sweeteners could arise to cement this stance and get it out of NATO too. How about 10 years of free gas?

Now...how about those massive 'covid' riots in Brussels, the EU capital. Government buildings smashed, no signs of it ending. Coincidental timing am I right?

Rugoz wrote:All signs point towards Russia's decline, externally and internally.


Uh...the opposite. All signs point to a period of rapid expansionism. With that comes tens of millions of fresh subjects, lands, resource bases. As we've learned with covid 99% of people even in the most self proclaimed individualistic societies are sheep and will play ball as long as you feed them and give them something to do.

All signs point to Russian incline, internally and externally. Cutting Russia out of Swift for example would further hasten the end of the international dollar system-China and others would redouble their scramble for the already existent alternatives, the largest of which is Chinese. US would be hastening its own decline just to temporarily hurt Russian international trade to the west. Russia's trade is already basic and easily de-dollarfied/bartered. Gas and oil. And all the goods it could ever need from China, bought directly with gas, rubles and yuan.

Also mandatory:
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#15208939
Just to state the bloody obvious: a state is an artificial construct and thus has no natural boundaries. At best one could say if people share a language, maybe sharing a state is a good idea as well. Then again because of the global village we all start to share a language - english. The only other criterion is natural borders, but thats already a lot less clear, unless we talk an island state.

Crimea wanted to rejoin Russia with overwhelming majority, over 90% in the referendum and in any poll ever since. The basis for them joining Ukraine in the first place was arbitrary, a random decision of a dictator.

Putin shows no sign of wanting to attack anyone, and I strongly doubt he will be still be in power at the end of the 2020's, anyway. He's been in power for ages, after all. What his successor does is everyones guess.

I find the opposition of the west ironic, because Putin is super friendly towards the west.

The return of the soviet union sounds like fear mongering to me. The first problem - when exactly would Russia have returned to the soviet union, anyway ? Thats a lot more vague than people seem to believe because the soviet union has massively violated its own ideals. For starters, it was supposed to be a democracy.

I doubt the original soviet union, as it was, would have sufficient support from the russian public.


colliric wrote:[...] Basically a Capitalist Pro-Russian Orthodox Church version of the USSR.


Eh ? Why would ANY russian government NOT be pro-russian ? :?:
#15209005
Igor Antunov wrote:You are spouting babbys first western propaganda on a subject you know nothing about. Muscovy is not even a direct predecessor to modern Russia. Recall the capital has moved around, as has the cultural core.

I should have warned you, I just had four coffees in a row. Hold on to your seat.

Rus' was founded by Varangians, Slavic and Finno-Ugric tribes in what is now northwestern Russia. The founder of Rurikid ruling dynasty of Rus', you know Rurik, was from Novgorod. Earliest Rus' cities were Novgorod, Ladoga, Izborsk, Beloozero, Rostov, Murom and Polotsk - all in modern Russia and Belarus. Kiev and Ukrainian territories were conquered by Rus' from Khazars. All written in the most important Rus' source - The Primary Chronicle.

The so called "Kievan Rus'" is purely a historiographical term coined in 19th century in the Russian empire. The country was called simply Rus' or Russkaya Zemlya (Russian land). The term was used to refer specifically to Kievan principality during the feudal fragmentation of Rus'. Among with such terms as Suzdalian Rus', Novgorodian Rus', Cherven Rus' and so on. Later the term started to being to refer to historical timeframe of Rus', when Kiev was the capital. But again Rus' didn't start in Kiev and it didn't end with it.

Now as for "Muscovites". The city of Moscow was founded by Rurikid prince in 12th century, even before the Mongols, unlike Lvov for example. And it was of course part of old Rus' land. The Moscow principality was the successor of Vladimir principality, one of main Rus' principalities during feudal split. Which in turn was the successor of Rostov-Suzdal principality. Again as already mentioned, Rostov is one of the earliest Rus' cities.

As for Mongol yoke, many like to throw around, like it makes Russia non-Rus' forcsome reason. Ukrainian territory was fucked by Mongol invasion the hardest and whole of it was under Mongol yoke too. Even more! Galician-Volyn principality raided Poland together with the Horde. Yes, the yoke ended earlier, simply because Ukraine was partitioned by Poland and Lithuania. But it's ironic, because Mongol yoke helped retain Rus' spirit much better than Polish rule.

The Rus' Orthodox metropolitan seat was moved from Kiev to Vladimir and then Moscow, by Constantinople itself. Mongols didn't fuck with the Church, in fact strengthened its position by exempting from taxation. Mongol didn't settle Russian principalities, they lived far in the steppes together with their Tatar subjects. They really didn't even intervene into internal matters much, they simply wanted tribute.

The fact that Rus' principalities continued to exist and Rurikids to rule them. And Rus' culture, language, faith and identity were retained in the north. And in the end those principalities consolidated by Moscow got their independence from Mongol-Tatars on their own. And right after started to revive the Byzantine tradition, on which ancient Rus' was based. That's where the Tsar title comes from, the Third Rome idea, marriage of Ivan the Great (no not the Terrible, his grandpa) to niece of last Byzantine emperor.

And of course the common people never refered to themselves as "Muscovites" as ethnicity and the state was not called "Muscovy" - purely Latin exonym. Grand Princes of Vladimir and then Moscow had the title "of all Rus'", same for Orthodox metropolite. And then the title "Tsar of Russia" was adopted and finally "Emperor" by Peter the Great. People called themselves "Rusin", "Rusak" and commonly used today "Russkiy". There are plenty of native official documents, literature and notes made by European travelers.

But those southern principalities which fell under Poland and Lithuania were completely liquidated along with Rurikid rule. They were turned into provinces. They got polonized, latinized, catholicized. Poles Admin Edit: Rule 3 Violation were colonizing those lands, basically occupying and making up the majority of all cities, while Rusin Orthodox population marginalized in rural areas. What does this have to do with Rus'? Cossacks were resisting though and eventually turned to Russia.
Oh , it's an even crazier story than that .
#15209010
colliric wrote:Not their war. Americans thank goodness remember Afghanistan, Iraq(both times), Vietnam and Korea.... Not one winning campaign since WW2.


This is different because they are directly facing a big bully.

Wrong choice if I have to say. Before they know it they will find either rogue state forces at their doorsteps or whatever they care annihilated by enemy hostility (e.g. nukes)
#15209024
Patrickov wrote:This is different because they are directly facing a big bully.

Wrong choice if I have to say. Before they know it they will find either rogue state forces at their doorsteps or whatever they care annihilated by enemy hostility (e.g. nukes)


America is the bully. It's being a bully on Russias border and backyard.

When Russia places military bases in Cuba with missiles right next to Florida I hope you don't complain. You know, in the interests of not being a total hypocrite.
#15209025
They were technically fighting the same bully by proxy in their losing campaigns in Vietnam and Korea.

That's why it was called the Cold War. No reason to believe it won't happen again.

I wish Kennedy hadn't died, about the only Democratic President that understood Russia and delt with them effectively. He gave them what they wanted but also negotiated that the deal remained secret so they didn't make him publically look weak.
#15209026
Igor Antunov wrote:When Russia places military bases in Cuba with missiles right next to Florida I hope you don't complain. You know, in the interests of not being a total hypocrite.


Cuba bullies its own people and imposes dictatorships in the name of socialist revolution. The United States is indeed being weak of not conquering Cuba outright, but if they think they are being benevolent I won't challenge them either. After all, they missed you back in 1999 or so.

EDIT 1: Unlike Russia, whose neighbour's people keen to reject, people in the United States' backgarden are keen to enter the United States. Speaks a lot on which countrt is more preferrable.

EDIT 2: Rogue states like Russia or China deserve no backgarden.
Last edited by Patrickov on 27 Jan 2022 01:46, edited 1 time in total.
#15209031
Patrickov wrote:In neither of them the Americans fought Russians directly. This time Russia is directly involved.


The Russians have allies throughout the entire region and in the middle east and at least two major allies in Asia.

It's a suicide mission. Last two famous foreign military leaders that took Russia to war on its home ground both lost bad. Ukraine is technically within the purview of "home ground advantage".
#15209035
Patrickov wrote:Cuba bullies its own people and imposes dictatorships in the name of socialist revolution. The United States is indeed being weak of not conquering Cuba outright, but if they think they are being benevolent I won't challenge them either. After all, they missed you back in 1999 or so.

EDIT 1: Unlike Russia, whose neighbour's people keen to reject, people in the United States' backgarden are keen to enter the United States. Speaks a lot on which countrt is more preferrable.

EDIT 2: Rogue states like Russia or China deserve no backgarden.



Ukraine bullies its own people (banned russian language even though 30% only speak Russian, went against multiple independence votes in crimea, sent army to attack and kill ethnic russians and pro-russia ukrainians in east and south ukraine) and imposes military occupation and opression in the name of neoliberal revolution. Russia is indeed being weak not conquering ukraine outright. Crimea was too little. But that's about to change.
#15209037
Igor Antunov wrote:Ukraine bullies its own people (banned russian language even though 30% only speak Russian, went against multiple independence votes in crimea, sent army to attack and kill ethnic russians and pro-russia ukrainians in east and south ukraine) and imposes military occupation and opression in the name of neoliberal revolution.


Nowadays being pro-Russian in its neighbours without actually moving into Russia undermines their own people's integrity, and I won't be surprised if they are seen by their fellows as traitors.

By the way, I see pro-Beijing Hongkongers in similar lights. You, as a pro-Russian pro-China Australian, is also the same.
#15209038
Personally my mum is HK Cantonese(Kowloon), and her family all moved here in the 70s because they didn't want to live constantly under threat of CCP invasion.

It's quite sad, she no longer views Hong Kong as her childhood city, "It's changed too much". 1950s-60s HK is "gone" to her. Blames the communists of course. But she also accepts it was inevitable they'd take over after 1997.

I put on Enter the Dragon and she's nearly crying when 70s HK appears in the opening title sequence.

Unfortunately reality is these two countries are getting more politically powerful again.
#15210026
Err ... the point of US wars is to legitimate their exorbitant spending on the military, not to actually win any war.

Even back in the 2000's the US generals leading the occupation in Afghanistan pointed out publically they had no clue what the heck they would be supposed to do there. There was no actual military goal in Afghanistan.

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