Joe Biden greenlights Russian 'incursion' into the Ukraine - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15208869
Beren wrote:Besides the surrealism of the US directly warring with Russia for Estonia, the problem is that militarily speaking Estonia cannot be protected from Russia. It's an impossible commitment, an over-extension.


There are different levels of escalation. In an all-out war NATO would probably abandon the Baltics, but that's a rather unlikely scenario.
#15208879
Istanbuller wrote:Democrats always do it. Obama let Russia to invade half of Syria. Why not this time again? It is quite possible.


Syria is not a member state of Nato and is basically a hostile and dictatorial regime.
#15208882
JohnRawls wrote:Syria is not a member state of Nato

Neither Ukraine is a member of NATO.

and is basically a hostile and dictatorial regime.

He failed supporting pro-democracy opposition factions. As a result of these things, Europe's borders became much less safe than it used to be. Around 10 million refugees enetered Turkey and over a million ones entered Germany.
#15208918
JohnRawls wrote:Going in to unoccupied Ukraine itself where they don't have control is suicidal in the long term due to resistance. Sure, there is a chance that Russia will overwhelm the regular army in the East and may be even manages to take Kiev but what after that? There will be armed resistance non-stop even in Kharkiv and Odessa. Ukraine circa 2022 is not the same Ukraine circa 2014. It has a half-decent army now, the people are severely anti-Russia and anti-Putin and so on even if Ukranians are slavic, speak Russian and so on...


There will be NO resistance what-so-ever. As there was no resistance in 2014. 2 weeks were enough to just take those territories without much mess. They know it both in the U.S. and in Russia. So the temptation might seem to be a great one. But Russia may just wait for the Ukrainian puppet regime to collapse by itself, because their energetic, economic and political crises are evident.

Putin’s Munich speech was an important diplomatic warning to the United States and its allies that Russia’s patience with NATO’s encroachment was at an end. But in the years following, Western (especially U.S.) leaders continued to blow through multiple red lights. The shockingly arrogant meddling in Ukraine’s internal political affairs in 2013 and 2014 to help demonstrators overthrow Ukraine’s elected, pro-Russia president was the single most brazen provocation, and it caused tensions to spike. Matters have gotten steadily worse since then, with Washington pouring arms into Ukraine and treating that country as a military client.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/di ... sis-199845
#15208925
This. Again.

Putin wont invade Ukraine.

We get told he will do it any minute since 2013.

Guess what - it never happened.

And it never will. You can stop holding your breath for it. If Putin wanted to, he would have done it already.

The rest is stupid propaganda lies and they arent even creative about it, they keep telling us the same bullshit over and over and over.

Like since 2008 we get every once in a while there will be a BIG BIG BIG inflation. Never came. Never will.

And thats that. *shrug*
#15208949
Ivan_R wrote:There will be NO resistance what-so-ever. As there was no resistance in 2014. 2 weeks were enough to just take those territories without much mess. They know it both in the U.S. and in Russia. So the temptation might seem to be a great one. But Russia may just wait for the Ukrainian puppet regime to collapse by itself, because their energetic, economic and political crises are evident.


https://nationalinterest.org/feature/di ... sis-199845


This is not 2014 anymore. As corrupt as Ukraine is, it still managed to reform the army with Western help and get military experience to a large degree. It is not the best army and not the best equiped army for sure but it is 100 folds better compared to what it was in 2014.

As for resistance, it is very unlikely that there will be none. Ukraine overall is severely anti-Russia and anti-Putin after 2014 to an extent that it can be considered Russiaphobic in a bad sense. Not only the radicals will resist highly likely but the average joes also and any opinion survey kinda points to that. In 2014 Russia had clout and support in the Eastern Regions, now it doesn't almost at all. Basically this is a consequence of Donbass and Luhanks occupation along with 15 000 dead soldiers and civilians. When blood is spilled then it is much harder already to normalise any relationship.
#15208951
Negotiator wrote:This. Again.

Putin wont invade Ukraine.

We get told he will do it any minute since 2013.

Guess what - it never happened.

And it never will. You can stop holding your breath for it. If Putin wanted to, he would have done it already.

The rest is stupid propaganda lies and they arent even creative about it, they keep telling us the same bullshit over and over and over.

Like since 2008 we get every once in a while there will be a BIG BIG BIG inflation. Never came. Never will.

And thats that. *shrug*


While I want to say this is true since most people here do not understand why Putin is doing it but there is a but. I am not sure if I wrote this in this topic or the other but Putin is not achieving his goals without NATO concessions and there is no way for him to boost his internal rating any other way so ,as a though experiment, he has no other choice but to invade to keep power for his 5th?6th? term without going down the NK route which he probably can't.

It is a question of how much of his own propaganda got to his head of sorts. Invasion is unlikely but not 0.
#15208952
JohnRawls wrote:
While I want to say this is true since most people here do not understand why Putin is doing it but there is a but. I am not sure if I wrote this in this topic or the other but Putin is not achieving his goals without NATO concessions and there is no way for him to boost his internal rating any other way so ,as a though experiment, he has no other choice but to invade to keep power for his 5th?6th? term without going down the NK route which he probably can't.

It is a question of how much of his own propaganda got to his head of sorts. Invasion is unlikely but not 0.

Does his internal rating matter if he can squash it with corruption and force?
#15208953
Rancid wrote:Does his internal rating matter if he can squash it with corruption and force?


They do and also they don't. They do in a sense that if you don't want to become North Korea then you must have some sort of support among the population and having 25-30% among mostly old people and corrupt bureaucrats is already bad since you are falsifying as if you have 66%+. That is literally double of what you have in reality and there is no way that people won't notice this both physically and mentally.

They don't if you are okay with becoming North Korea and have enough money to pay your military and repression apparatus while your economy will be collapsing due to sanctions and other trade limitations. The question is that if Russian elite as a whole are okay with this, after all, they are used to stealing money in Russia and then spending it in Europe or US. In a sense that they won't be able to do it anymore after you turn in to NK. Probably Putin doesn't have a choice to become NK since other people will not be happy about this and will tell him to fuck off or put a bullet in his head.
#15208954
@Ivan_R

Ivan_R wrote:There will be NO resistance what-so-ever. As there was no resistance in 2014. 2 weeks were enough to just take those territories without much mess. They know it both in the U.S. and in Russia. So the temptation might seem to be a great one. But Russia may just wait for the Ukrainian puppet regime to collapse by itself, because their energetic, economic and political crises are evident.


You don't know that. I think you are under-estimating the Ukrainians. They are not the same army they were in 2014. It also depends what part of Ukraine Putin tries to occupy or if he attempts to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Eventually, Putin's gambling is going to go south in my opinion.
#15208956
JohnRawls wrote:
They do and also they don't. They do in a sense that if you don't want to become North Korea then you must have some sort of support among the population and having 25-30% among mostly old people and corrupt bureaucrats is already bad since you are falsifying as if you have 66%+. That is literally double of what you have in reality and there is no way that people won't notice this both physically and mentally.

They don't if you are okay with becoming North Korea and have enough money to pay your military and repression apparatus while your economy will be collapsing due to sanctions and other trade limitations. The question is that if Russian elite as a whole are okay with this, after all, they are used to stealing money in Russia and then spending it in Europe or US. In a sense that they won't be able to do it anymore after you turn in to NK. Probably Putin doesn't have a choice to become NK since other people will not be happy about this and will tell him to fuck off or put a bullet in his head.


I understand.

However, I just see that we are entering a golden age of where asshole strongmen call the shots for the entire globe.

Side point:
It's all good to celebrate the US's waning power across the globe. What is fucking mind boggling is all the morons on pofo that are celebrating the raise of shithole regimes to replace it. :?:
#15209053
JohnRawls wrote:This is not 2014 anymore.
It is worse. And unanalyzable. Their army has always been the epicenter of their corruption. What you say about their equipment is just a part of it. Plus tons of PR.

I remember almost all experts (even in Russia) said in 2008 that the Georgian Army would either prevail or at least make the Russian forces stick there for years. Because the Georgian Army was so very well equipped and trained by the West. 5 days were enough. So it’s too hard to believe in miracles, especially with Ukraine.

Rancid wrote:What is fucking mind boggling is all the morons on pofo that are celebrating the raise of shithole regimes to replace it.

That is because there are some non-US members here. And they can think and even speak…
That is called multiculturalism, AFAIR.
#15209057
Ivan_R wrote:It is worse. And unanalyzable. Their army has always been the epicenter of their corruption. What you say about their equipment is just a part of it. Plus tons of PR.

I remember almost all experts (even in Russia) said in 2008 that the Georgian Army would either prevail or at least make the Russian forces stick there for years. Because the Georgian Army was so very well equipped and trained by the West. 5 days were enough. So it’s too hard to believe in miracles, especially with Ukraine.


That is because there are some non-US members here. And they can think and even speak…
That is called multiculturalism, AFAIR.


Nobody said anything of the sort in 2008. :eh: Experts didn't predict much because nobody knew the war even started and the first couple of days it was confusion and it was over. I was obviously watching the stuff on TV at the time both Russian and European/English channels when you know, i still watched tv.

Majority of the people who support US "fall" so to speak are people living in the West, majority of our members from outside usually support most of US actions. There are exceptions though.
#15209074
Ivan_R wrote:That is because there are some non-US members here. And they can think and even speak…
That is called multiculturalism, AFAIR.


I would say, these people are fucking morons. I would also say "be careful of what you wish for". Last, I would say it's not inconsistent to both be happy of the "fall" of the US, and also be against the rise of shithole powers too. What is inconsistent is claiming to be anti-imperialist when talking about the US, but then support/be ok with whatever other shitshole nation is pursuing an imperialist policy. Most of our pofo morons fall in the latter. Hence, why I call them morons.
#15209080
Rancid wrote:Last, I would say it's not inconsistent to both be happy of the "fall" of the US, and also be against the rise of shithole powers too.


Sorry I think this belief is downright wrong.

There is an old Chinese idiom called "destroying one's own Great Wall" (自毀長城).
Being happy about the fall of the US is exactly this.

As you just said, be careful of what you wish for.
#15209083
Patrickov wrote:Sorry I think this belief is downright wrong.

There is an old Chinese idiom called "destroying one's own Great Wall" (自毀長城).
Being happy about the fall of the US is exactly this.

As you just said, be careful of what you wish for.


Agree agree, I would still say "be careful what you wish for" or "Don't throw out the baby with the bath water" with respect to the waning power of the US (really, the west, not just the US). However, it is at least a consistent position.
#15209084
JohnRawls wrote:Nobody said anything of the sort in 2008.
I read Georgian, Russian and Western analytics those days. The overall 'narrative' was quite similar to the present one.
Rancid wrote:I would say, these people are fucking morons. I would also say "be careful of what you wish for".

That is what I have never understood. U.S. citizens seem to get used to the idea that there are numerous minorities (national, cultural, gender, etc.) living in their country. That those minorities should be treated with respect and so on. Why cannot you just extrapolate this same principle to other minorities and even majorities living out there? That is a proper multiculturalism, I insist.
#15209085
Ivan_R wrote:That is what I have never understood. U.S. citizens seem to get used to the idea that there are numerous minorities (national, cultural, gender, etc.) living in their country. That those minorities should be treated with respect and so on. Why cannot you just extrapolate this same principle to other minorities and even majorities living out there? That is a proper multiculturalism, I insist.


Extrapolation on a limited set of factors is not always the right approach. For example, if we extrapolate humanity's ability to travel distances at speed over the last few hundred years. This would lead you to believe we should be traveling faster than the speed of light by now. :lol:

Anyway, one mistake you are making is treating Americans as some sort of monolith hive mind. We can ignore this for the moment though. Why must respect be given to regimes that commit human rights violations, or do things that goes against one's personal (or even "national") principles? Respect is not to be given, but is to be earned after all. If you behave like a shithead on the global scene, you should be called out as such. Same applies to the dumb shit the US does.

If people within the US act like shitheads, they must be called out as such as well. This extrapolation point you make doesn't make much sense really. It's too sweeping of a position. It's not a thoughtful enough position to take.

you're making this weird point that in America people just accept everyone's bullshit behavior willy nilly (which is wrong, obviously), and then you try to apply that to geopolitics. Doesn't make sense on both accounts.
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