Rancid wrote:Serious though, where is the Russian air superiority? What excuse do our Putin dick suckers have on this one?
Russia does not have air superiority. Here is an excellent article about it.https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-superior-air-force-failing-him-ukraine-1706115
For those who do not want to read it:
Russia's in service rate is something south of 70%. This is very bad.
Russia is running out of precision guided weapons and sanctions make these difficult to replace.
Ukraine has a robust air defense system supplied by the west. Technology counts. Russia has to use unguided munitions which make their aircraft more vulnerable.
This is consistent with what the war has revealed right from the start. Russia's military is all show and no go. It is hollow. It is certainly pretty. It can parade quite well. But its performance has been abysmal.
As the article points out, it cannot even make its GPS system work. Or is afraid to reveal its vulnerabilities to the world.
One thing missing from the discussion is this:
Though the Russian military looks OK as a regional power on the books, it is not equipped to fight a two front war. Russia must keep in mind that it still has to defend itself. That means keeping sufficient forces in reserve to repel an attack by NATO. This war has made it perfectly clear that Russia cannot repulse a NATO attack. It is powerless to do it. How long would Russia's mobile forces last against western nations with air superiority? A week? That would leave Russia only one option. Nuclear.
I wonder if that is what is really on Russia's military mind when it threatens nuclear war....The fact that it knows that it cannot resist an invasion by NATO.
Remember when Putin said that a no fly zone would be an act of war? What was he really saying? He was acknowledging that his air and air defense sources are incapable of breaking an air blockade. Interesting.
So what do we have? We have a large paper tiger whose only defense against an existential threat is to risk destruction of large swaths of its own territory or even destruction of civilization. Not good choices.
So although Russia could still mobilize large ground forces and do tons of damage in Ukraine, the calculus has changed. Many experts now have concluded that Russia cannot win in Ukraine because it is not militarily strong enough.
Regarding Turkey and its dictator's insistence on kowtowing to Russia. This will not end well for Turkey. It is very near to being removed from NATO. My best case scenario is that we trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The Turks are not ready for democracy yet anyway. Better they align with a (one can't say power) country that will make them more comfortable with being under the heel of a dictator.