[Rancid]

Serious though, where is the Russian air superiority? What excuse do our Putin dick suckers have on this one?

[Istanbuller]

Absolutely. The same needs Germany - the good and stable relations with Russia.
That also needs the whole EU.

But, Germans are surprisingly spineless in this crisis. They allowed themselves to be absolute Biden’s puppets. It is amazing. All the moves they draw are against their own interests. Basically, suicidal for German and EU economy.

Europe is prosperous when Germany and Russia have good relations. If we add Turkey and France to equation - Europe is safe.

Anglo-Saxon (USA-UK) troublemaking and warmongering axis would be isolated and left to bark on EU borders.

Nor Turkey neither Germany and France will cut gas export from Russia. No worries.

[Skynet]

Cheap Russian gas is one of the reasons why not the hole industry got exported to China, like those of the US.

Russia never used its gas business as weapon during the cold war but now they commit mistakes.




In the Donbass was assumed to have a lot of fracking gas.

[Drlee]

Serious though, where is the Russian air superiority? What excuse do our Putin dick suckers have on this one?

Russia does not have air superiority. Here is an excellent article about it.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-superior-air-force-failing-him-ukraine-1706115

For those who do not want to read it:

Russia's in service rate is something south of 70%. This is very bad.

Russia is running out of precision guided weapons and sanctions make these difficult to replace.

Ukraine has a robust air defense system supplied by the west. Technology counts. Russia has to use unguided munitions which make their aircraft more vulnerable.

Opinion:

This is consistent with what the war has revealed right from the start. Russia's military is all show and no go. It is hollow. It is certainly pretty. It can parade quite well. But its performance has been abysmal.

As the article points out, it cannot even make its GPS system work. Or is afraid to reveal its vulnerabilities to the world.

One thing missing from the discussion is this:

Though the Russian military looks OK as a regional power on the books, it is not equipped to fight a two front war. Russia must keep in mind that it still has to defend itself. That means keeping sufficient forces in reserve to repel an attack by NATO. This war has made it perfectly clear that Russia cannot repulse a NATO attack. It is powerless to do it. How long would Russia's mobile forces last against western nations with air superiority? A week? That would leave Russia only one option. Nuclear.

I wonder if that is what is really on Russia's military mind when it threatens nuclear war....The fact that it knows that it cannot resist an invasion by NATO.

Remember when Putin said that a no fly zone would be an act of war? What was he really saying? He was acknowledging that his air and air defense sources are incapable of breaking an air blockade. Interesting.

So what do we have? We have a large paper tiger whose only defense against an existential threat is to risk destruction of large swaths of its own territory or even destruction of civilization. Not good choices.

So although Russia could still mobilize large ground forces and do tons of damage in Ukraine, the calculus has changed. Many experts now have concluded that Russia cannot win in Ukraine because it is not militarily strong enough.

Dangerous times.

Regarding Turkey and its dictator's insistence on kowtowing to Russia. This will not end well for Turkey. It is very near to being removed from NATO. My best case scenario is that we trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The Turks are not ready for democracy yet anyway. Better they align with a (one can't say power) country that will make them more comfortable with being under the heel of a dictator.

[XogGyux]

Russia does not have air superiority. Here is an excellent article about it.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-superior-air-force-failing-him-ukraine-1706115

For those who do not want to read it:

Russia's in service rate is something south of 70%. This is very bad.

Russia is running out of precision guided weapons and sanctions make these difficult to replace.

Ukraine has a robust air defense system supplied by the west. Technology counts. Russia has to use unguided munitions which make their aircraft more vulnerable.

Opinion:

This is consistent with what the war has revealed right from the start. Russia's military is all show and no go. It is hollow. It is certainly pretty. It can parade quite well. But its performance has been abysmal.

As the article points out, it cannot even make its GPS system work. Or is afraid to reveal its vulnerabilities to the world.

One thing missing from the discussion is this:

Though the Russian military looks OK as a regional power on the books, it is not equipped to fight a two front war. Russia must keep in mind that it still has to defend itself. That means keeping sufficient forces in reserve to repel an attack by NATO. This war has made it perfectly clear that Russia cannot repulse a NATO attack. It is powerless to do it. How long would Russia's mobile forces last against western nations with air superiority? A week? That would leave Russia only one option. Nuclear.

I wonder if that is what is really on Russia's military mind when it threatens nuclear war....The fact that it knows that it cannot resist an invasion by NATO.

Remember when Putin said that a no fly zone would be an act of war? What was he really saying? He was acknowledging that his air and air defense sources are incapable of breaking an air blockade. Interesting.

So what do we have? We have a large paper tiger whose only defense against an existential threat is to risk destruction of large swaths of its own territory or even destruction of civilization. Not good choices.

So although Russia could still mobilize large ground forces and do tons of damage in Ukraine, the calculus has changed. Many experts now have concluded that Russia cannot win in Ukraine because it is not militarily strong enough.

Dangerous times.

Regarding Turkey and its dictator's insistence on kowtowing to Russia. This will not end well for Turkey. It is very near to being removed from NATO. My best case scenario is that we trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The Turks are not ready for democracy yet anyway. Better they align with a (one can't say power) country that will make them more comfortable with being under the heel of a dictator.

I found it both hilarious and frightening reports of russians sticking consumer grade GPS to their SU fighters . I guess if VW ever goes back to russia, they might be able to advertise that their VW GOLF comes with standard navigation system that is as sophisticated, robust and reliable as those used on russian fighter jets .
What a focking joke. Seriously, if this goes for much longer Russia will be NK 2

[Istanbuller]

Russia does not have air superiority. Here is an excellent article about it.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-superior-air-force-failing-him-ukraine-1706115

For those who do not want to read it:

Russia's in service rate is something south of 70%. This is very bad.

Russia is running out of precision guided weapons and sanctions make these difficult to replace.

Ukraine has a robust air defense system supplied by the west. Technology counts. Russia has to use unguided munitions which make their aircraft more vulnerable.

Opinion:

This is consistent with what the war has revealed right from the start. Russia's military is all show and no go. It is hollow. It is certainly pretty. It can parade quite well. But its performance has been abysmal.

As the article points out, it cannot even make its GPS system work. Or is afraid to reveal its vulnerabilities to the world.

One thing missing from the discussion is this:

Though the Russian military looks OK as a regional power on the books, it is not equipped to fight a two front war. Russia must keep in mind that it still has to defend itself. That means keeping sufficient forces in reserve to repel an attack by NATO. This war has made it perfectly clear that Russia cannot repulse a NATO attack. It is powerless to do it. How long would Russia's mobile forces last against western nations with air superiority? A week? That would leave Russia only one option. Nuclear.

I wonder if that is what is really on Russia's military mind when it threatens nuclear war....The fact that it knows that it cannot resist an invasion by NATO.

Remember when Putin said that a no fly zone would be an act of war? What was he really saying? He was acknowledging that his air and air defense sources are incapable of breaking an air blockade. Interesting.

So what do we have? We have a large paper tiger whose only defense against an existential threat is to risk destruction of large swaths of its own territory or even destruction of civilization. Not good choices.

So although Russia could still mobilize large ground forces and do tons of damage in Ukraine, the calculus has changed. Many experts now have concluded that Russia cannot win in Ukraine because it is not militarily strong enough.

Dangerous times.

Regarding Turkey and its dictator's insistence on kowtowing to Russia. This will not end well for Turkey. It is very near to being removed from NATO. My best case scenario is that we trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The Turks are not ready for democracy yet anyway. Better they align with a (one can't say power) country that will make them more comfortable with being under the heel of a dictator.

Do you really want us to believe Western propaganda which is not even coherent? For months, Western media tell that Russian army is a garbage. If it is a garbage, then why does Sweden and Finland rush to become NATO members?

Norway and Finland cannot join NATO any time soon without Turkey's approval. First, Turkey's concerns should be adressed and then we may think about accepting their bids.

NATO's air defence systems are very bad. US Patriots are just joke. They do not work properly. However, Russian s-400s are proven to be efficient and tested by many times in warzones. That is why Turkey did not buy your shit patriots, instead acquired world's number one air defence system.

[Rancid]

Russia does not have air superiority. Here is an excellent article about it.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-superior-air-force-failing-him-ukraine-1706115

For those who do not want to read it:

Russia's in service rate is something south of 70%. This is very bad.

Russia is running out of precision guided weapons and sanctions make these difficult to replace.

Ukraine has a robust air defense system supplied by the west. Technology counts. Russia has to use unguided munitions which make their aircraft more vulnerable.

Opinion:

This is consistent with what the war has revealed right from the start. Russia's military is all show and no go. It is hollow. It is certainly pretty. It can parade quite well. But its performance has been abysmal.

As the article points out, it cannot even make its GPS system work. Or is afraid to reveal its vulnerabilities to the world.

One thing missing from the discussion is this:

Though the Russian military looks OK as a regional power on the books, it is not equipped to fight a two front war. Russia must keep in mind that it still has to defend itself. That means keeping sufficient forces in reserve to repel an attack by NATO. This war has made it perfectly clear that Russia cannot repulse a NATO attack. It is powerless to do it. How long would Russia's mobile forces last against western nations with air superiority? A week? That would leave Russia only one option. Nuclear.

I wonder if that is what is really on Russia's military mind when it threatens nuclear war....The fact that it knows that it cannot resist an invasion by NATO.

Remember when Putin said that a no fly zone would be an act of war? What was he really saying? He was acknowledging that his air and air defense sources are incapable of breaking an air blockade. Interesting.

So what do we have? We have a large paper tiger whose only defense against an existential threat is to risk destruction of large swaths of its own territory or even destruction of civilization. Not good choices.

So although Russia could still mobilize large ground forces and do tons of damage in Ukraine, the calculus has changed. Many experts now have concluded that Russia cannot win in Ukraine because it is not militarily strong enough.

Dangerous times.

Regarding Turkey and its dictator's insistence on kowtowing to Russia. This will not end well for Turkey. It is very near to being removed from NATO. My best case scenario is that we trade Turkey for Sweden and Finland. The Turks are not ready for democracy yet anyway. Better they align with a (one can't say power) country that will make them more comfortable with being under the heel of a dictator.

According to @Igor Antunov Russia isn't going to open up a new front with Finland. Instead, they are going to place missiles on Cuba and Venezuela. Mainly because it's cheaper and funnier.

[Beren]

ISTANBUL, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.

He's also Erdogan's chief foreign policy adviser.

Kalin said the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union - was fund-raising and recruiting in Europe and its presence is "strong and open and acknowledged" in Sweden in particular.

"What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said.

"NATO membership is always a process. We will see how things go. But this is the first point that we want to bring to the attention of all the allies as well as to Swedish authorities," he added. "Of course we want to have a discussion, a negotiation with Swedish counterparts."

Since Sweden has been odd even within the EU in this regard, I guess this horse is rather cheap.

[Istanbuller]

The US should make an offer. The price tag is actually skyrocket high.

[XogGyux]

According to @Igor Antunov Russia isn't going to open up a new front with Finland. Instead, they are going to place missiles on Cuba and Venezuela. Mainly because it's cheaper and funnier.

And you think they would allow for this to happen? Anyhow this is unnecessary. Both countries have the capability of annihilating their opponent with nuclear weapons launched from their mainland. Putting additional weapons on proxy islands is completely unnecessary. Is like having a house full of mouse traps of all types, full of poisone, baits everywhere and wanting to get a handgun in case you see a mouse... Unnecessary and mostly useless.

However, your statement reminds me of something... how come the US still keeps this stupid embargo/sanctions on Cuba.... Seriously? We are treating our neighbors not much different than the likes of NK, Russia and Iran? Way to make friends US. Ridicule Mexican immigrants, embargo Cuba, ignore Puerto-rico and all other Latin american countries that nobody cared to learn the names in high school?

I don't think Cuba (and for that mater Venezuela) would repeat a missile crisis fiasco but my concerns would be on China increasing their interests/influence around the area. While the Russians have the subtlety and finesse of a napalm enema, the Chinese have demonstrated a far more patient and strategic approach.

[Beren]

The US should make an offer. The price tag is actually skyrocket high.

Sure, maybe they'll offer to screw your economy a bit and tear down your currency if you ask for too much.

[Istanbuller]

Sure, maybe they'll offer to screw your economy a bit and tear down your currency if you ask for too much.

They already claimed doing that. What can else they do?

The US can't even directly ask Turkey to switch its side on Ukraine war. Instead, they make Zelenskyy talk about it. We will only accept a deal which will send shock waves in Washington.

[wat0n]

Honestly, I won't be surprised if the US will regard the Turkish demand regarding the PKK to be valid. I mean, the US itself considers the PKK to be a terrorist organization.

[Istanbuller]

It may be combination of some things like F-35 deliveries, withdrawal of US from Northern Syria, billions of free cash etc.

[Beren]

We will only accept a deal which will send shock waves in Washington.

They must be already shocked that you want to negotiate with the Swedes on the PKK.

It may be combination of some things like F-35 deliveries, withdrawal of US from Northern Syria, billions of free cash etc.

[Rancid]

And you think they would allow for this to happen? Anyhow this is unnecessary. Both countries have the capability of annihilating their opponent with nuclear weapons launched from their mainland. Putting additional weapons on proxy islands is completely unnecessary. Is like having a house full of mouse traps of all types, full of poisone, baits everywhere and wanting to get a handgun in case you see a mouse... Unnecessary and mostly useless.

However, your statement reminds me of something... how come the US still keeps this stupid embargo/sanctions on Cuba.... Seriously? We are treating our neighbors not much different than the likes of NK, Russia and Iran? Way to make friends US. Ridicule Mexican immigrants, embargo Cuba, ignore Puerto-rico and all other Latin american countries that nobody cared to learn the names in high school?

I don't think Cuba (and for that mater Venezuela) would repeat a missile crisis fiasco but my concerns would be on China increasing their interests/influence around the area. While the Russians have the subtlety and finesse of a napalm enema, the Chinese have demonstrated a far more patient and strategic approach.

That's why I find what Igor said funny. He is assuming Cuba and Venezuela would even allow it to begin with.

I agree that the US should stop the cold shoulder with Cuba and Venezuela. Technically they have warmed up a bit with Venezuela already. That's for another thread though.

[Istanbuller]

They must be already shocked that you want to negotiate with the Swedes on the PKK.

We are already negotiating some of these things. What is new here is Turkey gets the upper hand.

[Beren]

We are already negotiating some of these things. What is new here is Turkey gets the upper hand.

You should decide if you mean to be a somewhat serious horse-dealer or a troll.

[Istanbuller]

You should decide if you mean to be a somewhat serious horse-dealer or a troll.

Does it become "a troll" when you hear something you don't like?

Don't you like the idea that old senile Biden faces trade offs?

[Beren]

Don't you like the idea that old senile Biden faces trade offs?

Biden will have to convince the Swedes to give some concessions to Turkey on the PKK, and that's it. As a matter of fact Sweden's and Finland's NATO-membership is a marginal issue, so you horse-dealers can't ask for much for your consent to it.