Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 245 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15228436
Igor Antunov wrote:
Those pipelines have been under construction for years. The gas deal (not to be confused with oil) was signed back in 2016. And it's not stopping.

And no you threw your own economy off the cliff. Just came out EU is indeed trading euros for rubles directly which is driving up demand for rubles.




It's not going to help, and you know it. What's more, it will replace a tiny fraction of what Putin sent to the West, and for less money..

"What’s important about this second Russian setback is that it interacts with another big surprise: The remarkable — and, in some ways, puzzling — effectiveness, at least so far, of Western economic sanctions against the Putin regime, sanctions that are working in an unexpected way.

However, that can’t be the whole story, because Russia seems to have lost access to imports even from countries that aren’t imposing sanctions. Matt Klein of the blog The Overshoot estimates that in March, exports from allied democracies to Russia were down 53 percent from normal levels (and early indications are that they fell further in April). But exports from neutral or pro-Russian countries, including China, were down almost as much — 45 percent.

One final point: The effect of sanctions on Russia offers a graphic, if grisly, demonstration of a point economists often try to make, but rarely manage to get across: Imports, not exports, are the point of international trade."
#15228441
late wrote:Russia has a series of military problems.

And a series of socioeconomic problems, as usual. They're always at least half a century behind, maybe that's why they're warring with their modified/upgraded T-72s as if it's 1972 indeed.

However, the USSR also didn't collapse militarily, even Hitler couldn't achieve that and they'd have won a non-nuclear war in Europe anytime, they actually collapsed socioeconomically. If Putin wanted to mobilise Russia as much as it would be necessary to really win this war and take control over Ukraine, he should conscript a few hundreds of thousands of people and have a war economy, but what then? Could he even manage to do it, and if he could, could he also keep Ukraine in the long term or would Russia collapse as it did in the Cold War?

The current situation, however, is that Z-Rex believed his prey to be a lot weaker than it actually is, and after he failed to bring it down with a quick definite storm he's desperately struggling to keep hold of it.
#15228467
Igor Antunov wrote:Boom: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-05-19/

Pop:
Image


I mean and? Russia has higher inflation along with Turkey up there which also affects the rest of the world, at least the countries who don't cheat on those metrics. This is a direct consequence of the war, oil prices and food shortages especially for middle eastern countries and other massive importers like China.

The war severely damanged and hampered food logistics from Ukraine and Russia which will kill a lot of people in the middle east and other countries that import food in general. Not saying that exporters of food will not suffer due to higher prices but the impact is relatively small on Europe and US since we produce significantly more food than we actually need. Europe and US along with Latin America will feel a pinch of inflation but Africa, Asia and Middle East will literally starve in some places with 30%+ food inflation.
#15228470
I must admit I was starting to get a bit worried. The western media and many people on the forum seemed to be descending ever deeper into a pathetic fantasy world where Ukraine was going from strength to strength. As I have been documenting in the other thread currently Russia is advancing. It s advancing slowly, painfully slowly and its static on many points on the front, but it is still advancing. This is always dangerous, because when confronted with the collapse of their pathetic fantasy world, people tend to lash out at truth speakers like myself.

Anyway here' something from Jeremy Bowen of a somewhat different tone.
Is Russian firepower starting to show in Ukraine's east?

Jeremy Bowen

Reporting from Dnipro

Russian forces in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region have pushed forward and taken some ground, according to information in the latest Ukrainian military briefing.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the Russians for destroying the area.

That could be code for admitting the weight of Russian firepower is starting to tell.

These are not big advances – it’s mile by mile and village by village - but it looks as if the Russians are reaping their first tactical success in weeks from tried and trusted methods of advance behind heavy bombardments.

The Ukrainian military says the Russian army is advancing in the areas of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
A man walks past a residential building damaged during a shelling in Severodonetsk
EPA/STRCopyright: EPA/STR
A man walks past a residential building damaged during shelling in SeverodonetskImage caption: A man walks past a residential building damaged during shelling in Severodonetsk

The Ukrainians say a strategic highway between Bahmut and Lysychansk is blocked by Russian artillery placed five kilometres from the road.

In Bakhmut, a city that had a population of around 75,000 before the war, shelling and airstrikes have started fires.

Ukraine has its own artillery and is firing back. But it’s not clear how many of the modern 155mm howitzers supplied by the US have managed to reach battlefields in the east.

The surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol could also release Russian reinforcements for their offensive in Donbas.
User avatar
By Wels
#15228473
Igor Antunov wrote:Have you noticed Russia isn't was and is blasting all Ukrainian civil infrastructure, when it could?
It isn't was carpet bombing the capital, the government buildings, etc, when it could.
It isn't was and is hitting every bridge and warehouse in western ukraine, when it could.

^ Corrected this for you. Cluster bombs, phosphor, it is just happening again, they are now flattening all with artillery and move slowly forward. Donbas is a scrapyard, not only Mariupol :eh:

"But but but what about the US"
All things the US did and does in every war.

Ah there it is. "Russia does not want to fight Ukraine", it is a special operation, Blah :lol:
It only wants to remove the name and identity and kill some ten thousand civilians :eh:
Seeing this kind of warped reality i understand why Russia will still lose this war.
#15228480
Russia may well lose in the end. The long term geo-strategic outlook for Russia is not good, but in short term things are looking good, but not brilliant for them.

its always very difficult to really make a fair assessment of a General' s performance. Its difficult to tell how much of the Sever-Donets bridge head attempt loses were due to Dvornikov and how much to his subordinates, but so far he seems to have been a pretty effective general in using the forces at his disposal with the strengths and weaknesses that they possess.

Interestingly, contry to what you hear from the Liberal media, it may be the Ukrainian army that is suffering most from harmful interference by the civilian leadership. The forces in Mariupol put up an amazing defence, but think what those forces could have achieved if the high command had allowed them to retreat from Mariupol in time.

it seems pretty clear that Dvornikov chose to give ground in front of Kharkov, and this didn't herald the imminent collapse of the Russian invasion as so many seemed to think. Maybe it was Dvornikov who made the order to withdraw from Kiev and Sumy. Most Generals lack the ruthlessness to be willing to give up territory rather than continue to hold a front on unfavourable terms.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15228491
Patrickov wrote:@Rich , you are a closet Russia apologist, aren't you?


As Potemkin more or less say's @Rich, is basically a lunatic with a peppering of moments of extreme clarity and wisdom. :lol:
#15228492
Rich wrote:Russia may well lose in the end. The long term geo-strategic outlook for Russia is not good, but in short term things are looking good, but not brilliant for them.

its always very difficult to really make a fair assessment of a General' s performance. Its difficult to tell how much of the Sever-Donets bridge head attempt loses were due to Dvornikov and how much to his subordinates, but so far he seems to have been a pretty effective general in using the forces at his disposal with the strengths and weaknesses that they possess.

Interestingly, contry to what you hear from the Liberal media, it may be the Ukrainian army that is suffering most from harmful interference by the civilian leadership. The forces in Mariupol put up an amazing defence, but think what those forces could have achieved if the high command had allowed them to retreat from Mariupol in time.

it seems pretty clear that Dvornikov chose to give ground in front of Kharkov, and this didn't herald the imminent collapse of the Russian invasion as so many seemed to think. Maybe it was Dvornikov who made the order to withdraw from Kiev and Sumy. Most Generals lack the ruthlessness to be willing to give up territory rather than continue to hold a front on unfavourable terms.


Of course whenever Ukraine frees territory Russia "chooses to to give ground". :lol:

Either way, this is a war of attrition. Territorial gains aren't all that important (other than protecting civilian areas from bombardement). Ukraine needs to destroy Russian manpower and equipment until Russia realizes this just isn't worth it.
#15228494
Rugoz wrote:Of course whenever Ukraine frees territory Russia "chooses to to give ground". :lol:

Either way, this is a war of attrition. Territorial gains aren't all that important (other than protecting civilian areas from bombardement). Ukraine needs to destroy Russian manpower and equipment until Russia realizes this just isn't worth it.


Indeed, a lot of people are focused on map painting. From the Ukrainian side all they have to do is keep fighting. Even if they are defeated conventionally, they just have to keep fighting a partisan war.

People also keep forgetting that so far Ukraine has been wildly successful. People forget Putin thought he'd had a pro-Russian regime installed in Kyiv by now. Didn't happen. He thought he'd have everything east of the Dinipro. Hasn't happened. Putin thought he'd have Odesa by now, hasn't happened. Yes, RUssia is creeping slowly, but it's very possibly an unsustainable crawl of advancement. Russia does not have unlimited war fighting capabilities. Ukraine just needs to stack up more and more Russian bodies. More and more... more and more.

Another big failure is that Putin has yet to defeat Ukraine conventionally too.
User avatar
By Wels
#15228520
Patrickov wrote:Most of Russia knows, just that no one have enough ability, willpower or luck to overthrow the Putin regime.

I would not be so sure. It is not the russian people's way to protest publicly and hold useless speeches on soap boxes.

https://zaborona.com/en/explosions-and- ... -zaborona/

"The analyst calls the so-called domestic anti-war movement one of the possible perpetrators and initiators of such operations in the occupiers’ territory: “There is information that there is a large anti-war movement in Russia that is not about slogans or rallies (because slogans and rallies are not for Russia), but namely about sabotage.

We see that fires are taking place not only in the areas bordering Ukraine, for which we can be blamed, but also in the depths of Russia, including in Siberia and the Far East. I doubt that Ukraine has such long arms to bomb the Far East. That is, there is a sabotage and protest movement, and it can already be called guerrillas in Russia.”"


"If you [Russians] decide to massively attack another country, massively kill everyone there, run over civilians by tanks, and use warehouses in your region to carry out assassinations, sooner or later debts will have to be repaid,” said then adviser to the head of the President’s Office Mykhailo Podolyak.

“With such intensity and volume of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine it will not be possible for them to stay intact. That is why the disarmament of the Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses of murderers is a completely natural process. Karma is a cruel thing.”"


Like there's partisans in Melitopol and now other ukrainian territory trampled over by Russia.
#15228522
Rancid wrote:From the Ukrainian side all they have to do is keep fighting. Even if they are defeated conventionally, they just have to keep fighting a partisan war.

Time may work for them indeed, especially if Z-Rex is about to either get crippled or die sooner rather than later. I wonder if his successor would want to go on with this shit.
#15228525




Thank you, Erdoğan! The Swedish press is exploding and NATO looks dead in the water. I'm guessing he is working closely with Putin right now, but who cares? Fascists will look after each other in the end. :)
#15228535
Hello, guys.

I was at the seaside in the brotherly Croatia. :D
I was happily switched off for a few days.

So, what's new? Update me , please...

Did Russia collapse finally? Like rouble did?
Did Ukraine win? Zelensky turned into Hulk?
What about NATO bombing Moscow ?

Did Sweden and Finland open northern frontline yet? (Croatian president just today complained about fascists from northern Sweden who hate everyone who is a non-Swedish...not good development for the EU + NATO cause)

Azov resurrected?
Did @Rancid finally fly to Donbass to ethnically cleanse Russian Orcs from Europe??
#15228540
Rancid wrote:Reports are, Putin is now getting involved in decision making down to the tactical level. :lol:


Does @Drlee advise Putin?

I hope not...then Putin would be doomed
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