Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 312 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By Beren
#15235936
Euronews wrote:And it seems the two Nordic nations have given in to Turkish demands, which included preventing recruitment, fundraising, and propaganda activities of the Kurdish PKK group.

Turkey also wanted the extradition of more than 30 people by Finnish and Swedish authorities -- some are alleged PKK activists, while others are alleged members of the so-called Gülenist movement which Erdogan believes was behind a 2016 attempt to overthrow him.

Turkey said it had “got what it wanted” including “full cooperation [...] in the fight against” the rebel groups.

Finland and Sweden set for invite to join NATO after Turkey drops opposition

Pretty much as it was expected. ;)

Also:

CNN wrote:(CNN) - White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian "victory" -- adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.


US officials emphasized to CNN that this more pessimistic assessment does not mean the US plans to pressure Ukraine into making any formal territorial concessions to Russia in order to end the war. There is also hope that Ukrainian forces will be able to take back significant chunks of territory in a likely counteroffensive later this year.

A congressional aide familiar with the deliberations told CNN that a smaller Ukrainian state is not inevitable.
"Whether Ukraine can take back these territories is in large part, if not entirely, a function of how much support we give them," the aide said. He noted that Ukraine has formally asked the US for a minimum of 48 multiple launch rocket systems, but to date has only been promised eight from the Pentagon.


And not everyone in the administration is as worried -- some believe Ukrainian forces could again defy expectations, as they did in the early days of the war when they repelled a Russian advance on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. National security adviser Jake Sullivan has remained highly engaged with his Ukrainian counterparts and spent hours on the phone last week discussing Ukrainian efforts to recapture territory with Ukraine's defense chief and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, officials familiar with the call told CNN.

The growing pessimism comes as Biden is meeting with US allies in Europe, where he will try to convey strength and optimism about the trajectory of the war as he rallies leaders to stay committed to arming and supporting Ukraine amid the brutal fight.

"We have to stay together. Putin has been counting on from the beginning, that somehow NATO and the G7 would splinter, but we haven't and we're not going to," Biden said Sunday while at the G7 summit in the Bavarian Alps.

The administration announced another $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine last week, including additional rocket launch systems, artillery ammunition and patrol boats. The US is also expected to announce as soon as this week that it has purchased an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system, called a NASAMS, for Ukrainian forces. Biden indicated in an op-ed earlier this month that he is committed to helping Ukraine gain the upper hand on the battlefield so that it has leverage in negotiations with Russia.

The mood has shifted over the last several weeks, though, as Ukraine has struggled to repel Russia's advances in the Donbas and has suffered staggering troop losses, reaching as many as 100 soldiers per day. Ukrainian forces are also burning through their equipment and ammunition faster than the West can provide and train them on new, NATO-standard weapons systems.

A US military official and a source familiar with Western intelligence agreed it was unlikely that Ukraine would be able to mass the force necessary to reclaim all of the territory lost to Russia during the fighting -- especially this year, as Zelensky said on Monday was his goal. A substantial counteroffensive might be possible with more weapons and training, the sources said, but Russia may also have an opportunity to replenish its force in that time, so there are no guarantees.


"Much hinges on whether Ukraine can retake territory at least to February 23 lines," said Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert at the Center for Naval Analyses. "The prospect is there, but it's contingent. If Ukraine can get that far, then it can likely take the rest. But if it can't, then it may have to reconsider how best to attain victory."

Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory

To me it seems the US administration doesn't really believe in a successful large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive, as well as doesn't mean to escalate, and rather expect and prepare for possible partial successes and then negotiations and compromises.
User avatar
By Szabo
#15235938
Beren wrote:To me it seems the US administration doesn't really believe in a successful large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive, as well as doesn't mean to escalate, and rather expect and prepare for possible partial successes and then negotiations and compromises.


Where has it been explicitly said by anyone with half a brain that Ukraine could retake all of its lands through sheer force?

Hasn’t Zelenskyy himself said like a million times that the war will end only through negotiations?

The idea from the Ukrainian perspective all along has been to resist hard enough and create sufficient enough losses on the Russian side to force them to negotiate on more beneficial terms for Ukraine.

If Ukraine is to regain all of its lands, it’s something that might take decades and only after the fall of Putin and his lackeys. It’s kind of how Germany was reunited after many decades or how Korea will probably also be reunited one day in the future as well.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15235945
The strategic failures for Putin are so high. Still, still, gaining the Donbas and land bridge is still a huge win for him. Especially since he controls the national narrative. It will be easy for him to make Russians forget about all the failures he's had so far.
#15235947
I think Putin would be mad to make peace without taking Odessa if he can. After the land bridge to Crimea, I think the rest of the Black Sea coast is Russia's most important objective. If he takes it, it will give him huge economic leverage over Ukraine. If he doesn't take it and he lifts the blockade it will be filled with all sorts of nasty anti ship weapons. I think the only reason that Odessa was not prioritised is that driving for Odessa without taking the Donbas would leave Russian forces exposed and in a strategic precarious position.

It is not politically possible for Ukraine to give up territory that it controls. Also Ukraine can not remain a democracy while giving Russia meaningful guarantees on joining the EU or NATO. This conflict will be decided on the battlefield. Negotiations at this stage area would be a complete waste of time.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15235948
Rich wrote:I think Putin would be mad to make peace without taking Odessa if he can. After the land bridge to Crimea, I think the rest of the Black Sea coast is Russia's most important objective. If he takes it, it will give him huge economic leverage over Ukraine. If he doesn't take it and he lifts the blockade it will be filled with all sorts of nasty anti ship weapons. I think the only reason that Odessa was not prioritised is that driving for Odessa without taking the Donbas would leave Russian forces exposed and in a strategic precarious position.

It is not politically possible for Ukraine to give up territory that it controls. Also Ukraine can not remain a democracy while giving Russia meaningful guarantees on joining the EU or NATO. This conflict will be decided on the battlefield. Negotiations at this stage area would be a complete waste of time.


If he manages to do that, it would be a massive win for him. Even though he's throwing so many bodies and resources, to him personally, all those dead Russians simply don't matter, and the Russian public will accept it even if they don't like it.
User avatar
By Beren
#15235950
Szabo wrote:Where has it been explicitly said by anyone with half a brain that Ukraine could retake all of its lands through sheer force?

It's a widely shared idea here on PoFo.
User avatar
By Beren
#15235953
Rancid wrote:Is it? Who?

You, Rugoz, JohnRawls seem to share it. But now you're going to turn out not to do so, I guess. :lol:
User avatar
By Rancid
#15235954
Beren wrote:You, Rugoz, JohnRawls seem to share it. But now you're going to turn out not to do so, I guess. :lol:


You haven't been paying attention. What I have been consistently calling for months is that NATO should send troops in. Then a bunch of you call me crazy because "OMGZ nukes" and then I say "Fuck Putin, call his bluff". That has been the pattern for me. Getting NATO in their is the only way to beat them back to 2014 or even pre-2014 borders.

At a minimum, they should send int special ops teams from the west too, but we're too pussy for that. It's time to smack PUtin in the fucking mouth. All he understands is violence and power, so let's show him what power looks like.

Fuck his stupid pussy ass little "I'm gonna nuke you" crutch. Fuck him.

I've been calling for the express addition of Ukraine to NATO, and then shoving it up his ass.
Last edited by Rancid on 28 Jun 2022 22:52, edited 2 times in total.
#15235958
Rancid wrote:Is it? Who?


It is mine.
#15235960
Beren wrote:It's a widely shared idea here on PoFo.


Indeed it is shared by me mostly. It goes from the same hole as that Ukraine wouldn't loose the microsecond the war starts.

This is not a question of having a brain or not. This is a simple logical deduction as of right now if nothing changes. There is no way out of the war for Russia and there is no way out of the war for Ukraine so the war will continue. If the war continues for years then my bet is that Russia will run out of resources in one way or the other faster than Ukraine which is supplied by the whole West. By resources i mean anything really, economic, political, diplomatic, equipment, etc etc. Russia will crack in some places and those cracks are going to widen and widen without the war ending until it won't be able to fight.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15235961
JohnRawls wrote:It is mine.


oh...

Well, fuck putin. It's time to give that son of a bitch the war he wants with NATO.

Given his shitty performance thus far, NATO would fucking mop the floor with Putin's shitty ass military.
#15235964
Rancid wrote:oh...

Well, fuck putin. It's time to give that son of a bitch the war he wants with NATO.

Given his shitty performance thus far, NATO would fucking mop the floor with Putin's shitty ass military.


Yes FUCK PUTIN. Finland and Sweden will join NATO shortly.
User avatar
By Beren
#15235968
Rancid wrote:What I have been consistently calling for months is that NATO should send troops in.

Then you're not just kidding around here.

'Proxy war, proxy war, what proxy war? Are you kidding me?' :eh:

:lol:
#15236022
NATO is only a threat to Europe and indeed the world. Sweden and Finland are non factors, they will just join the list for nuking.

As long as it exists Europe is at risk of being destroyed. Except this time the US would cease to exist alongside it. Maybe not a terrible outcome.

As for the US, they lost North Korea campaign, Vietnam, lost Iraq to Iran (Iraq's biggest weapons provider is now Russia), lost Syria to Russia, lost Afghanistan to Taliban and soon will be losing Ukraine. They've permanently alienated India and China. Those mutts are overrated and overblown. Anybody following them is going down with them.

The Russian Aerospace Forces delivered a strike with high-precision air-based weapons on hangars with weapons and ammunition received from the United States and European countries, in the area of the Kremenchug plant of road vehicles.

As a result of a high-precision strike, Western-made weapons and ammunition, concentrated in the storage area for further shipment to the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbas, were hit.

The detonation of stored ammunition for Western weapons caused a fire in a shopping center located next to the plant.



Typical, storing ammo next to schools, city parks, shopping malls, etc. Must have been America's idea. You can clearly see the precision strike on a warehouse complex later in the video.

Roscosmos released satellite images and coordinates of Western "decision-making centers supporting Ukrainian nationalists."
The Russian state corporation recalled that the NATO summit opens in Madrid today, at which Western countries will declare Russia their worst enemy.

"We give the coordinates of the objects. Just in case."

Image

Lisichansk commanders pulverized attempting to leave the city and their troops behind:
Russian artillery methodically and competently destroys the column with the command staff of the 10th mountain assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The commanders of the Ukrainian militants fled from Lysichansk, leaving their personnel behind.



The real representatives of the 'international community':
Image

Not to mention 90% of manufacturing capacity and the entire resource base is with BRICS. The west is becoming increasingly isolated.
#15236046
Rancid wrote:@Igor Antunov let me guess. That shopping mall that was hit was a super secret CIA arms depot?


It wasn't hit or targeted. It did catch fire. Hundreds would have died if it had been hit directly. The warehouse next to it was hit directly. And yes that was a NATO weapons depot. Makes sense to store the stockpiles there, but it is evil.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15236047
Igor Antunov wrote:It wasn't hit or targeted. It did catch fire. Hundreds would have died if it had been hit directly. The warehouse next to it was hit directly. And yes that was a NATO weapons depot. Makes sense to store the stockpiles there, but it is evil.



uh huh...
#15236050
mhm...
Image

Turns out storing weapons in large warehouses 250m from a mall can be hazardous. The missiles were heavy with 500kg warheads, explains the collateral. Explosions would have been at least 80m in radius.

And the cherry on top, before and after strike, take note of opening times:
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