Igor Antunov wrote:Never going to happen. Neutral ukraine is all Russia will accept, with no possibility of NATO or EU and no coastal boundaries because Odessa in Russia is deemed Russian clay.
In the same way that ever promised great Ukrainian counter offensives keep failing to happen so does the great Russian break thorough promised by the Russian fanbois. Aside from the first week of the war, the Russian campaign has been characterised by grinding slow progress, punctured by the odd humiliation like the sinking of the Moskva and the loss of Snake Island. The Liberal media may be grossly overplaying the loss of Snake Island to cover for the abandonment of the Severo-donets salient but its still a significant set back. There is some truth to the jibe that Putin is doing a very good job at demilitarising Russia.
Wars have strong tendencies to unpredictability and instability (in the mathematical / systems theory sense of the word). The western focus on the Western front in WWI has given a false perspective of the stability of the First World War, when in reality it was conflict with many twists and turns. Smaller powers repeatedly misjudging their entries into the war, when the outcome seemed assured. But after the withdrawal from Kiev and Sumy this conflict has shown remarkably stability. Every time it seems that Russian offensive power has completely exhausted itself, they start advancing again and every time it appears like the Russians might finally be getting some real momentum their offensives promptly stall.
At the current rate of progress it will take a long time just to capture the whole of Donets oblast let alone capture Odessa and link up with Tranistria.