- 04 Jul 2022 11:19
First off I'm not opposed to sanctions in all circumstances, just this sanctions are a panacea pathology. For example the oil sanctions applied against Japan by Roosevelt were very effective. Sea blockading Kaliningrad most certainly could be considered an act of war, but given that we are in a proxy war with Russia, regardless of whether we are really trying to win, land blockading Kaliningrad not only seems reasonable to me, but should be a no brainer.
Now war as I've said before, is unpredictable. unlike so many others I've refrained from making medium or long term predictions about outcomes. Maybe the Russian offensive will grind to a halt this week and in August Ukraine will start making spectacular advances. Maybe not in August, maybe in September or perhaps October. But we should not base our policy on these endless promises of Ukrainian victories. The Russians have not only captured the Severodonets salient, they have been making modest advances in front of Kharkov. They are putting pressure along the Eastern Donets front and the southern and Kherson fronts are stable.
I doubt Russia wants a ceasefire at the moment, but just maybe it does, in which case we should therefore accept a ceasefire along the current occupation lines and an eventual peace treaty which accepts those borders and lifts the sanctions in return for Russia's acceptance of the complete sovereignty of the reminder of Ukraine, the legitimacy and inviolability of Ukraine's new borders and the right of Ukraine to become a member of the EU and member of NATO.
Cultural Marxism judgement of imagined guilty groups, "Whites", etc by completely unrealistic, absolute unchanging standards, while denying, minimising, excusing and relativising the "crimes" of so imagined innocent oppressed groups.