[JB70]

Taiwan's birth rate in May 2022 fell by 23.34% compared to May 2021.
I explained that in terms of statistics, the change in Taiwan is an unthinkable 26-sigma event of enormous magnitude.

Like most people would, I was hoping, despite evidence from other countries, that this is a data fluke.
Well, it is not, and the data for June was just released in Taiwan. I am very upset.
June Birth Rate Cratered by 27.66%!

Compared to June 2021, birth rate in Jun 2022 is down by -27.66%."


https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/taiwa ... ed-2766-in

[JB70]

Can it be more obvious? Depopulation.

"The result? An “impossible” birth rate drop of -27.66% is basically a slow death sentence for the population of Taiwan, if it continues, especially combined with a 26% increase in deaths."

The numbers are on the government site.

[Godstud]

The vaccines weren't out when most of the women would have gotten pregnant so you're full of shit, as usual.

Hmmmm... Not true.
The current birth rate for Taiwan in 2022 is 8.394 births per 1000 people, a 0.1% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Taiwan in 2021 was 8.402 births per 1000 people, a 0.08% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Taiwan in 2020 was 8.409 births per 1000 people, a 0.1% decline from 2019.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/T ... rom%202019.

Also, if you use some critical thinking, you'll realize the drop in fertility rates is something else, entirely.

Taiwan is racing to fix its plummeting fertility rate, but experts say the problem may be embedded in cultural and economic life
Projections show Japan and Taiwan are set to experience the biggest drops, with expected declines of around 13 per cent on current numbers by 2050.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-13/ ... /101137970

The numbers that your idiot blogger posted, were false. It's also not related to vaccines.

The numbers are on the government site.

No link because it's false information that somebody fabricated.


All your posts end up in Conspiracy Theories for a reason.

[JB70]

The vaccines weren't out when most of the women would have gotten pregnant so you're full of shit, as usual.

Hmmmm... Not true.
The current birth rate for Taiwan in 2022 is 8.394 births per 1000 people, a 0.1% decline from 2021. The birth rate for Taiwan in 2021 was 8.402 births per 1000 people, a 0.08% decline from 2020. The birth rate for Taiwan in 2020 was 8.409 births per 1000 people, a 0.1% decline from 2019.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/T ... rom%202019.

Also, if you use some critical thinking, you'll realize the drop in fertility rates is something else, entirely.

Taiwan is racing to fix its plummeting fertility rate, but experts say the problem may be embedded in cultural and economic life
Projections show Japan and Taiwan are set to experience the biggest drops, with expected declines of around 13 per cent on current numbers by 2050.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-13/ ... /101137970

The numbers that your idiot blogger posted, were false. It's also not related to vaccines.

No link because it's false information that somebody fabricated.


All your posts end up in Conspiracy Theories for a reason.

I post in the conspiracy forum because it is a conspiracy.

From https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/en/2120

4. There were 10,943 babies born in June 2022 which decreased 27.66% compared with the same month last year. The average showed that a baby was born about every 3.9 minutes. The annual crude birth rate was 5.74‰.

5. There were 21,033 deaths in June 2022 which increased 26.41% compared with the same month last year.

[JB70]

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/depop ... medium=web

"I inputted historical birth rate data from Macrotrends for the years 2009-2021, and added the year 2022 as year 2021 adjusted down by 23.24%. Obviously, 2022 is not over and the number of Taiwanese babies to be born this year (or during the next 12 months) is unknown. So the chart below is an illustration of what would happen in the next 12 months if the 23.24% drop stays constant."

[JB70]

Copying an explanation someone posted. About the probability for this happening.



A 26 sigma event is proof that this is not natural and is not a coincidence. There has to be some incredibly massive man made event that has impacted the entire population of women that are of child bearing age.



A 2 sigma event would be one day in 44.

A 7 sigma event would be one day in 3 billion

A 26 sigma event would be one day in a period that is much, much longer than the 13 billion years since the big bang.

[Godstud]

It's MADE UP. It's not real.

You'd have one day represent a year and in any kind of statistical analysis that makes no sense.

[late]

This is a global problem, and it's been coming for a long time.

After WW2, there was a global Baby Boom. The way countries dealt with recovering from WW2 is coming back to haunt most of those countries.

China is one of the worst off, thanks largely due to it's One Child policy. Korea is even worse, a lot of Asian countries focused so hard on economic growth that things like having families suffered.

They are trying family friendly policies now, but it's too little, and far too late. France has had generous family policies for a while, but the economic reality has limited their effectiveness.

Economies are driven by consumption. The young get married, buy houses, bigger cars so they can carry the kids, washing machines, they buy everything. That is a crucial part of an economy, but also the need for one generation to replace itself. That hasn't been happening. American policies have been pretty bad, in that regard.

However, as the strongest economy, we can attract what we need, immigrants.

Who the hell would want to immigrate to China or Russia?? There were people moving to China before Xi, but between their crap economy and hostility to outsiders, it ain't that way no more...

So what we're looking at is a nearly global competition to attract immigrants, esp. the talented ones.

And that's when things start looking bad for a LOT of countries.

[Igor Antunov]

I wouldn't call fewer people a problem, if you already have over a billion. Recall the resources are finite.

It's a problem for small and medium sized countries that have already reached peak economic development. It means they have to import migrants and that brings with it all sorts of problems as migrants in such numbers are more likely to be uneducated and a burden on the economy and ultimately impossible to integrate. It works for places like the UAE because those places are filthy rich and highly segregated. The migrant residents are treated as 2nd class humans and this is strictly enforced. Imagine if Germany's or Japan's population was 85% ex-pats from developing countries 30 years from now and they kept their current form of government? Political, social and economic collapse.

If you want to re-distribute the global population, authoritarianism and race based discrimination will need to make a major comeback. Perhaps even chattel slavery.

[late]

I wouldn't call fewer people a problem

But anyone with a clue would..

[Igor Antunov]

But anyone with a clue would..

You clearly sound like someone that's never seen a city of 35 million. Your inability to comprehend the scale of the problem is obvious. An aging population without support simply dies off. Huge numbers of young uprooted migrants cause revolutions.

[late]

You clearly sound like someone

You sound like someone that is out of their depth in a cracked teacup.

[Igor Antunov]

You sound like someone that is out of their depth in a cracked teacup.

Nooo my favourite youtube grifter is filling me with agenda you can't deny the social science we must keep growing our economy at all cost it's all about the gdp!

[JB70]

Recent study.

"one of the great early misapprehensions about mRNA vaccines is that they would not have widespread, systematic effects, instead remaining relatively localized. this was rapidly debunked and early studies showed widespread penetration of organs with a particular and perhaps unfortunate preference for concentration in ovaries and testes.


post day 150, sperm concentration was -15.9% vs baseline, lower even than in the 75-120 day period. average time post vaxx for T3 collection was 174 +/- 26.8 days so we’re talking about 6 months post vaxx with NO recovery in sperm concentration."

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/pfiz ... tal-motile

[late]

Nooo my favourite youtube grifter is filling me with agenda you can't deny the social science we must keep growing our economy at all cost it's all about the gdp!

You babble.

But don't worry, in a year or two even you will be able to understand it.

[JB70]

Perhaps this gets closer to the real number.

Hungary:

"You can see that the five least vaccinated counties experienced only a 4.66% drop in birth rates between Q1 of 2021 and Q1 of 2022. At the same time, five most vaccinated counties experienced a 15.2% drop in birth rates! "

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/hunga ... d-counties

[late]

Perhaps

Perhaps not.

Have you considered going to college and learning how to do that properly?

[AFAIK]

Japan seems to be doing ok with it's stable economy with minimal inflation. It's still developing high tech toys and appliances and upgrading its infrastructure. It still enjoys a low crime rate and high social cohesion. And it's still investing in developing countries to improve their infrastructure and enhance their supply chains.

[Godstud]

Declining birthrates are expected in countries that are now rich or wealthy. You don't need a ton of kids, and affording them isn't easy, either.

[Igor Antunov]

You babble.

But don't worry, in a year or two even you will be able to understand it.

Me: Global population growing by 80 million/year

You: Wahhh but muh demographic crisis!

Come on now you know you're reaching.

A population crash in developed economies is a godsend. I can only imagine how much better my life would be if 50% of the population in my city was eliminated overnight.

You: muh but jerbs in brick and mortar service economy!

Too bad, should have picked a more viable work from home digital career. The global market is your oyster there.