Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 359 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15242697
I read a short news story about the Russian economy in a study conducted by Yale. Things are not looking great over there. :lol:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy

Abstract

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.

Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas

- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy

Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.


Yale study shows sanctions are crippling Russia's economy

Yale study

#15242700
Rugoz wrote:Those dumb lies have been debunked a million times over. At this point it suffices to say he's a freaking idiot.

No idea what your motivation for spreading this shit is. I guess you're still sour that your Greater Serbia wet dream didn't materialize.


Yeah, yeah...lies...idiots....lies...idiots....debunking NATO wet dreams....it hurts....lies ....idiots....

When you, out of blue, mentioning Serbia , i love this one :cheers:

User avatar
By Wels
#15242708
According to " Bloomberg ", European intelligence officers have reported arms shipments for Russia across the Bosporus strait.
According to the report, a commercial ship sanctioned by the U.S. is said to have sailed from the Syrian port of Tartus to Russia. On board: military vehicles for Vladimir Putin.

"The voyage of the "Sparta 2" to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk shows how the Kremlin is struggling to find new weapons and what difficulties the Kremlin leader is in with regard to the defense industry. It is unclear exactly which war vehicles are involved. However, at least eleven vehicles are believed to have been unloaded at the port. This is shown by satellite images available to intelligence officials, according to "Bloomberg."

Explosive: NATO member Turkey could have been involved in the transport, at least passively, since the weapons shipment was not stopped. Ankara had closed the Bosporus shortly after the start of the war on February 24, but only for warships. Merchant ships are allowed to pass through the strait. A Turkish official pointed out that such shipments would only be investigated if there were suspicions of wrongdoing."


Hard to believe Erdoghan knew nothing about this :hmm:
#15242712
Wels wrote:According to " Bloomberg ", European intelligence officers have reported arms shipments for Russia across the Bosporus strait.
According to the report, a commercial ship sanctioned by the U.S. is said to have sailed from the Syrian port of Tartus to Russia. On board: military vehicles for Vladimir Putin.

"The voyage of the "Sparta 2" to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk shows how the Kremlin is struggling to find new weapons and what difficulties the Kremlin leader is in with regard to the defense industry. It is unclear exactly which war vehicles are involved. However, at least eleven vehicles are believed to have been unloaded at the port. This is shown by satellite images available to intelligence officials, according to "Bloomberg."

Explosive: NATO member Turkey could have been involved in the transport, at least passively, since the weapons shipment was not stopped. Ankara had closed the Bosporus shortly after the start of the war on February 24, but only for warships. Merchant ships are allowed to pass through the strait. A Turkish official pointed out that such shipments would only be investigated if there were suspicions of wrongdoing."


Hard to believe Erdoghan knew nothing about this :hmm:


Turkey seems to be one of the rare NATO countries that is reasonable and put Turkey's interests before USA's.
By Rich
#15242715
Rodger Waters wrote:The Chinese didn’t invade Iraq and kill a million people in 2013,” Waters added. “Who have the Chinese invaded and slaughtered?

The Americans didn't kill a million people in Iraq, perhaps Sunni Muslim and Sunni Arab nationalist terrorists did. The removal of Saddam was a noble righteous, moral venture for which Bush, Blair and those of us that vociferously supported regime change from the start can feel justly proud. The Chinese Communist party which has now morphed from a Communist party with Chinese nationalist characteristics into a full blow national socialist party has invaded many lands. they are possibly responsible for more deaths than any other regime in history. The CCP, along with North Korea, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is one of the most evil regimes on the planet
#15242723
[quote="Independent_Srpska"]Beautiful interview.
Basically Roger Waters (Pink Floyd) addresses the issue the whole NATO club has, including the Fanboys here :"You guys need more reading to do."

Notable stoner and high school graduate Roger Waters lectures the rest of us on politics and morality. He is a world renowned expert on European affairs by his own account. Possessed of the monumental ego only a lot of money and screaming crowds can provide, he holds forth on issues other than music.

You are really searching for allies dude.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15242740
Wels wrote:According to " Bloomberg ", European intelligence officers have reported arms shipments for Russia across the Bosporus strait.
According to the report, a commercial ship sanctioned by the U.S. is said to have sailed from the Syrian port of Tartus to Russia. On board: military vehicles for Vladimir Putin.

"The voyage of the "Sparta 2" to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk shows how the Kremlin is struggling to find new weapons and what difficulties the Kremlin leader is in with regard to the defense industry. It is unclear exactly which war vehicles are involved. However, at least eleven vehicles are believed to have been unloaded at the port. This is shown by satellite images available to intelligence officials, according to "Bloomberg."

Explosive: NATO member Turkey could have been involved in the transport, at least passively, since the weapons shipment was not stopped. Ankara had closed the Bosporus shortly after the start of the war on February 24, but only for warships. Merchant ships are allowed to pass through the strait. A Turkish official pointed out that such shipments would only be investigated if there were suspicions of wrongdoing."


Hard to believe Erdoghan knew nothing about this :hmm:


Time to sink those ships.
#15242768
Rich wrote:The Americans didn't kill a million people in Iraq,

They killed at least 500,000 Iraqi babies. Former United States secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, claimed that the deaths of more than 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it.


:)
By Rich
#15242857
ingliz wrote:They killed at least 500,000 Iraqi babies. Former United States secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, claimed that the deaths of more than 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it.

Both China and the Soviet Union voted for Resolution 661. China did not seek to end the sanctions after the this claim was made. For what's its worth I was actually party of the ant war movement in 90/91 and opposed the sanctions from the start, as I have opposed the sanctions on Russia from the start. The removal of Saddam on the other hand was a good thing as is the expansion of NATO into Sweden and Finland.

The Russians have captured Zaitseve north of Horlivka. Again this is not back and forth movement. The Russians haven't controlled the village since 2014. They haven't controlled Zaitseve south east of Bakhmut since 2104 either, but for the time being this remains in Ukrainian hands.
#15242864
Wels wrote:https://misbar.com/en/factcheck/2022/03/26/us-sanctions-did-not-kill-500000-iraqi-children


Don't tell me the British financed organization is trying to debunk UNICEF's report on consequences of British committed horrors?!
#15242881
Independent_Srpska wrote:Don't tell me the British financed organization is trying to debunk UNICEF's report on consequences of British committed horrors?!

#15242893
Rancid wrote:Indeed, so be it. Russia started it.


Ehmm...no, USA started it, but that really wouldn't be of such importance after a nuclear winter.
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