Is the economy good, or bad? In a word: Yes. - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15238699
"Is the economy good, or bad? In a word: Yes.

If recent economic headlines have been giving you whiplash, you’re not alone. The economy has been sending lots of mixed messages. Every few days, a new report appears to give a wildly different impression of where things stand — and whether Americans should be basking in the boomtimes or battening down the hatches.

In fact, both narratives could be right. There’s really good stuff happening in the economy, implying we’re probably not in recession yet; but there are also some extremely worrying signs, suggesting recession might be imminent.

So what to make of these confusing signals?

One possibility is that some of these trends will stop contradicting each other once more data come in and past numbers get revised.

The employment numbers, for instance, can be subject to huge revisions — especially around times of turning points in the economy. Not because anyone is cooking the books. It’s genuinely difficult to measure hiring patterns in real time, especially when more businesses than usual are shuttering or opening.

This is why markets are, again, freaking out. It’s also why there is a growing threat of recession in the next year. I don’t mean “recession” the way laypeople sometimes use the term, to mean “something feels bad in the economy.” I mean “recession” as economists define it: a significant contraction in economic activity spread across the economy, usually showing up in incomes, jobs, GDP and other key metrics.

As lousy as Americans feel about the economy now — when some metrics still look quite good! — the months ahead could feel a lot worse."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... r-bad-yes/

Some of our posters believe in magic. It's goofy as hell, but true.

You never get perfect information, matter of fact, the bigger the decision, the worse the quality of information tends to be. Like in war, you have to guess the intent of the enemy, which is always problematic.

I think the Fed is doing what has been it's usual thing since Reagan, running the country for the benefit of the rentiers.. And if you don't know what a rentier is, it's long past time to learn. (Price of Inequality, your library can get you a copy)

I think that's a bad mistake, and I've done a number of threads explaining why. On top of Covid and war, the global economy is facing fundamental changes. This is new, which means economists that are driving with the rear view mirror are asking for trouble.
#15242774
BlutoSays wrote:
Words redefined..



Every administration plays up good economic news, and plays down the bad.

It's like complaining water is wet, part of any president's job is projecting confidence.

The rest is utter BS, and even you know it. You love BS, and run away from the obvious like it was trying to kill you.

That's called cognitive dissonance; you have an extremely low tolerance. Which explains why you almost never respond on point..
#15242787
late wrote:Every administration plays up good economic news, and plays down the bad.

It's like complaining water is wet, part of any president's job is projecting confidence.

The rest is utter BS, and even you know it. You love BS, and run away from the obvious like it was trying to kill you.

That's called cognitive dissonance; you have an extremely low tolerance. Which explains why you almost never respond on point..



This president is definitely not projecting any confidence. That you believe he is shows just how fucked in the head you are.



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#15242802
BlutoSays wrote:
This president is definitely not projecting any confidence. That you believe he is shows just how fucked in the head you are.




I'll give you this much, Biden is crap at speechifying. But he tries. Donnie Deutsch is a retired advertising guy. He has a good take on this, Biden is good at getting things done, terrible at selling his accomplishments. I know what you will say, but seriously, how the hell would you know?

And yes, I know you don't understand most of what I say, the interesting bit is that you don't even try to understand.

It's the cognitive dissonance..
#15242804
late wrote:I'll give you this much, Biden is crap at speechifying. But he tries. Donnie Deutsch is a retired advertising guy. He has a good take on this, Biden is good at getting things done, terrible at selling his accomplishments. I know what you will say, but seriously, how the hell would you know?

And yes, I know you don't understand most of what I say, the interesting bit is that you don't even try to understand.

It's the cognitive dissonance..



But he tries? That's your answer? :lol:



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#15242806
BlutoSays wrote:
But he tries?



Anyway that knows politics has known Biden is not great at public speaking. That was on full display during the Obama years.

He wasn't elected because he was eloquent. He was elected because he wasn't psychotic...
#15242860
ckaihatsu wrote:
The Car Market Bubble Is Collapsing



Like my title said, is the economy good, or bad...?

The answer is still yes.

In my distinctly unhumble opinion, the Fed is overreacting to the apparent strength of the economy. I am more worried about the Fed blundering than I am of the car bubble collapsing.

Lower car prices are a good thing. This is a good example of why the financial sector needs tight regulation.

But is it enough the crash the economy, or implode the banks like what happened in the crash of 2007?

Doubt it.

But there's a lot of things about this situation that are weird. So I'm always hedging my bets.
#15242863
late wrote:
Like my title said, is the economy good, or bad...?

The answer is still yes.

In my distinctly unhumble opinion, the Fed is overreacting to the apparent strength of the economy. I am more worried about the Fed blundering than I am of the car bubble collapsing.

Lower car prices are a good thing. This is a good example of why the financial sector needs tight regulation.

But is it enough the crash the economy, or implode the banks like what happened in the crash of 2007?

Doubt it.

But there's a lot of things about this situation that are weird. So I'm always hedging my bets.



Sorr', brah, but it doesn't take AI on a quantum computer to extrapolate the trend here, since 2000. Please remember that there's been almost *no* growth since the 2000-era dotcom crash, and the U.S. economy's been running on *government debt* since then, or 'nationalist scrip', as I call it.

Image


*Yeah*, this is going to be 2008-2009 all over again, but *bigger*, as the data / graph suggests. Auto loans is a *leading indicator*.
#15243097
late wrote:"Is the economy good, or bad? In a word: Yes.


In one word: Dumb.


late wrote:If recent economic headlines have been giving you whiplash, you’re not alone.


According to Glenn Greenwald a month or two ago, 8 out of 10 US americans live from paycheck to paycheck. They have no financial reserves, they spent every last cent they earn in a month in that month. Any increase in price means they have to either lower their consumption - or accumulate debt. Debt they have no chance to ever pay back.

Add to that the high inflation because of the US sanctions on Russia, and the bottom line for 8 out of 10 US americans is: f*** those "economic headlines" from people who have no financial woes.
#15243116
Negotiator wrote:
In one word: Dumb.




According to Glenn Greenwald a month or two ago, 8 out of 10 US americans live from paycheck to paycheck. They have no financial reserves, they spent every last cent they earn in a month in that month. Any increase in price means they have to either lower their consumption - or accumulate debt. Debt they have no chance to ever pay back.

Add to that the high inflation because of the US sanctions on Russia, and the bottom line for 8 out of 10 US americans is: f*** those "economic headlines" from people who have no financial woes.



The past two decades have been fixated on 'Keynesian'-type economics, or massive government deficit spending ('printing-money'), to fund virtually *all* economic activity in the U.S., particularly for bailing out debt-ridden companies like Enron and Worldcom, and then for bailing out the entire economy itself, in 2008-2009, and in 2020.

The 'radical' 'libertarian' response to this was to simply look at money supply *only*, as from the Fed, and they invented Bitcoin as a response to the 2008-2009 meltdown. Yet we had March 2020 nonetheless, with an *even larger* bailout, at public expense, which had *nothing* to do with money supply -- it was about providing *liquidity* to fill-in monumental pits of bad debts, just to keep the *entire capitalist system* from collapsing under its own weight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_bank

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_bank

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_company


Libertarians *love* to imply that the world is all a big blank slate, or level-playing-field, and that a little turn of a bolt here or a new widget there will 'fix' the situation -- it really reminds me of the counterculture hippies of the 1960s.


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