* Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts on October 4.
* Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization is having more significant short-term impacts on the Russian domestic context than on the war in Ukraine, interacting with Russian battlefield failures to exacerbate fractures in the information space that confuse and undermine Putin’s narratives.
* Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in Ukraine.
* The Kadyrov-Prigozhin incident sparked a rift between the siloviki and the milbloggers, with the milbloggers defending Lapin.
* Fractures are emerging within the Russian milblogger community itself, moreover.
* The fragmentation of the Russian nationalist information space could have significant domestic impacts and could even affect the stability of Putin’s regime.
Sources behind the daily updates are listed below. A collection of UK-US military and Western MIC leaders.
Our Board Members
General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired), Chairman, Institute for the Study of War; President, GSI, LLC
Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Founder & President, Institute for the Study of War
The Honorable Kelly Craft, Former US Ambassador to UN and Canada
Dr. William Kristol, Director, Defending Democracy Together
The Honorable Joseph I. Lieberman, Senior Council, Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman, LLP
Kevin Mandia, Chief Executive Officer & Board Director, Mandiant
Jack D. McCarthy, Jr., Senior Managing Director & Founder, A&M Capital
Bruce Mosler, Chairman, Global Brokerage, Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.
General David H. Petraeus (US Army, Retired), Member, KKR & Chairman, KKR Global Institute
Dr. Warren Phillips, Lead Director, CACI International
Colonel William Roberti (US Army, Retired), Managing Director, Alvarez & Marsal
My analysis will follow in the first response.