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#15250005
"Meteorologists tell us that global warming has created new problems for forecasters. Not only are hurricanes getting stronger, they’re also intensifying more rapidly than they used to, making it difficult to issue early warnings for communities in their path. Notably, officials in Florida’s Lee County waited for definitive evidence that they would be hit hard by Hurricane Ian before ordering evacuations — and by then it was too late for many people.

Part of the problem is that the Fed hasn’t done what it’s doing now — drastically tightening money to fight inflation — for a long time, indeed since the early 1980s. And some analysts, perhaps including people at the Fed, may have forgotten one important lesson from monetary policy in the bad old days. Namely, it takes a significant amount of time before higher interest rates translate into either an economic slowdown or a drop in the inflation rate.

And add in the risk of financial crisis. Britain’s recent bond-market mess was homegrown, but it may nonetheless be a harbinger of the potential mayhem from rapidly rising interest rates.."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/opin ... rates.html

To borrow a saying, winter is coming.
#15250072
late wrote:"Meteorologists tell us that global warming has created new problems for forecasters. Not only are hurricanes getting stronger, they’re also intensifying more rapidly than they used to, making it difficult to issue early warnings for communities in their path.

I find it amusing how your kind feels like it needs to constantly add global warming into everything.

Just admit the issue that you're talking about has very little actually to do with global warming.
#15250073
late wrote:Part of the problem is that the Fed hasn’t done what it’s doing now — drastically tightening money to fight inflation — for a long time, indeed since the early 1980s.

Yes, if a Central Bank holds interest rates down for too long, it can lead to the growth of an economic bubble.

Oh well, wonder if anyone will learn their lesson. Probably not.
#15250080
Puffer Fish wrote:
I find it amusing how your kind feels like it needs to constantly add global warming into everything.

Just admit the issue that you're talking about has very little actually to do with global warming.



For one thing, it's about timing, not warming. It's an apt metaphor.
#15250081
Puffer Fish wrote:
Yes, if a Central Bank holds interest rates down for too long, it can lead to the growth of an economic bubble.

Oh well, wonder if anyone will learn their lesson. Probably not.



Once again, your inability to focus leads you astray. The discussion is about the degree and timing of raising interest rates.

What the Fed tries to do is strike a balance, and that is really hard to do when a lot of the inflationary pressure is exogenous.
#15250092
late wrote:
raising interest rates



Bad idea -- intentionally *crippling* the economy like that.


Puffer Fish wrote:
I find it amusing how your kind feels like it needs to constantly add global warming into everything.

Just admit the issue that you're talking about has very little actually to do with global warming.



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Energy transition

Aside of inflationary pressures, the 2021/22 energy crisis has also increased the use of coal in energy production worldwide. Coal use in Europe already increased by 14% in 2021, and is expected to rise another 7% in 2022. Soaring natural gas prices have made coal more competitive in many markets, and some nations have resorted to coal as a substitute for potential energy rationing in winter 2022/23. With demand for coal increasing in Asia and elsewhere, global coal consumption is forecast to rise again by 0.7% in 2022 to 8 billion tonnes. Burning coal or petroleum products emits significantly higher amounts of carbon dioxide and air pollutants compared to natural gas. The return to coal slows the transition to greener and more sustainable energy sources. Both the United States and Russia are top exporters of natural gas and coal.[26][27]

Europe has been historically leading with regard to global climate policy, pledging to cut emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels in the next 8 years. But sanctions on Russia are crushing global supplies of fossil fuels with drastic price increases. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 risks unravelling decades of hard work to reduce emissions on the European continent. After a long period of optimistic projections on reducing Europe's carbon footprint, governments there aren't keeping anything off the table, including reopening coal-fired power plants or upping oil imports, as well as prolonging the phase-out for nuclear energy.[28]



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%8 ... transition
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