[litwin]

U. needs tanks and jets , EU/NATO must give them to U. !! Moscow horde must be stopped !

[Potemkin]

The "brotherhood of republics" was never a thing. The SU crushed uprisings in those republics throughout its entire history.

Russian chauvinism was always a thing though.

Silly Stalinist.

Russian chauvinism existed, but was suppressed. I once had a Russian tutor who told me about one of her lecturers at Leningrad State University who gave a lecture on the question of whether Ukrainian was a separate language or was merely a dialect of Russian. His conclusion was that Ukrainian was merely a dialect of Russian. By the following week, he had been fired from his job. The reason for his dismissal? “Great Russian chauvinism”. As I said before, Lenin hated what he called “Great Russian chauvinism”, and deliberately set up the Soviet Union so that it would officially be a partnership of equals. Ironically, this later made it possible to break up the Soviet Union with relative ease in 1991. They didn’t even have to hold a referendum. But the Soviet state, from its beginning to its end, always acted to suppress Russian chauvinism. Putin would likely have been arrested in Soviet times for claiming that Ukraine has no right to exist as a separate republic, but should actually just be part of Russia. He wouldn’t just have lost his job; he would likely have ended up chopping down fir trees in Siberia.

[ingliz]

if heaven forbid Crimea is lost (!)

It would be a foolish act for the Ukrainians to attempt to take Crimea when Russia can always escalate.

Total war is not pretty. A war that is unrestricted in terms of the weapons used, the territory or combatants involved, or the objectives pursued, one in which the accepted rules of war are disregarded, is not something to be courted.

[Rugoz]

Russian chauvinism existed, but was suppressed. I once had a Russian tutor who told me about one of her lecturers at Leningrad State University who gave a lecture on the question of whether Ukrainian was a separate language or was merely a dialect of Russian. His conclusion was that Ukrainian was merely a dialect of Russian. By the following week, he had been fired from his job. The reason for his dismissal? “Great Russian chauvinism”. As I said before, Lenin hated what he called “Great Russian chauvinism”, and deliberately set up the Soviet Union so that it would officially be a partnership of equals. Ironically, this later made it possible to break up the Soviet Union with relative ease in 1991. They didn’t even have to hold a referendum. But the Soviet state, from its beginning to its end, always acted to suppress Russian chauvinism. Putin would likely have been arrested in Soviet times for claiming that Ukraine has no right to exist as a separate republic, but should actually just be part of Russia. He wouldn’t just have lost his job; he would likely have ended up chopping down fir trees in Siberia.

Well it wasn't very successful. The people in charge in Russia today were educated in the SU. A country doesn't fundamentally change in 2 decades, certainly not culturally. The SU sent in the tanks multiple times but didn't in 1989. That's why it fell apart*.

*I don't want to act contrarian here, of course you are right to some degree. The SU didn't attempt to create a centralized unified state.
*Obviously the cost of keeping it together would have been much higher in 1989 than before.

It would be a foolish act for the Ukrainians to attempt to take Crimea when Russia can always escalate.

Total war is not pretty. A war that is unrestricted in terms of the weapons used, the territory or combatants involved, or the objectives pursued, one in which the accepted rules of war are disregarded, is not something to be courted.

LoL, Ukraine just took Kherson, officially Russian territory. Russia didn't nuke anything. Ukraine needs to take Crimea because then it has something that Russia desperately wants, something it potentially would be willing to leave Ukraine in peace for.

[ingliz]

Ukraine needs to take Crimea

OK, we will see what happens if or when they try.

I, for one (it seems), hope they settle before it comes to this 'trying' otherwise many more innocent lives will be lost.

[JohnRawls]

OK, we will see what happens if or when they try.

I, for one (it seems), hope they settle before it comes to this 'trying' otherwise many more innocent lives will be lost.

Crimia will fall in 2023-2024 either through diplomatic means or militarily. It is question of when by now.

[litwin]

[QatzelOk]

Indeed he was, but once he was safely ensconced in power, he took the opportunity to launch a revolution from above, which revived Russian nationalism and restored a quasi-Tsarist absolutist system.

How else to get rid of the un-elected oligarchs who are ruining so many nations on the planet?

Perhaps Putin didn't want his sons running bio-labs in foreign countries, while working with FTX?

Russian chauvinism existed, but was suppressed.

We should examine our own national chauvinism before picking apart the politics of other countries. American and British chauvinism, by the way, means that you believe that your country is the essential country, the best of the best, while you wait in a line of SUVs for five hours at a foodbank because you went bankrupt after a urinary tract infection.

Or... if your British, you come back from your fifth war for gold for London Banks, and realize that you have no teeth whatsoever and live in a bedsitter with nasty neighbors.

Or... you jump and cheer at a football game until your voice cracks, and then drive two hours back to your bungalow to watch TV since there is absolutely nothing better to do in the community-less expanse of suburbia that was designed by car and oil companies.

And it's all going to go bankrupt because it is too dependent on imported resources, so your government tries to figure out a way to eliminate your income and give it to corrupt insiders with family members working in banks and engaing in pharma scams, among others.

Too many pharma scans and laws not being respected? Time for a war with Russia to distract all the Western chauvinists with a scapegoat for their inner racist to target.

(narrative)

[Drlee]

It would be a foolish act for the Ukrainians to attempt to take Crimea when Russia can always escalate.

Total war is not pretty. A war that is unrestricted in terms of the weapons used, the territory or combatants involved, or the objectives pursued, one in which the accepted rules of war are disregarded, is not something to be courted.

Exactly what is Russia going to "escalate" with? Nukes? Not likely. Russia is back on its heels. The last thing they want is to have NATO join in the fray. And a massive escalation on their part would probably trigger it. NATO air power would overwhelm them in days if not hours. Their only hope would be either to sue for peace or initiate a general nuclear exchange. They will not do the later. A bullet for you know who is more likely than that.

Maybe they could get China to bail them out with an attempt on Taiwan but I think that they would be miscalculating two things in that regard. The first is the USA's commitment to Taiwan and the other is our ability to fight a two front war.

Much as you like to troll this thread @ingliz with dire consequences the fact is that Russia is getting its ass kicked in a big way. And this is not because of any imagined restraint on their part. As for their deciding to disregard the "accepted rules of war"? They are already doing that and have from the very start. They are striking Ukrainian civilian targets. They are destroying the civilian infrastructure. Their troops are looting, raping and murdering with no consequences from their own leadership.

Meanwhile the Russian economy is crashing. It is officially in recession with the third quarter figure down 4%. Their economy has been propped up by firm oil prices. This is not holding. Diesel inventories are trending up. Chinese oil demand is going down rapidly on Covid cases dampening demand. Russian crude is trading below market and more importantly below Russia's target price. US inventories are growing and EU demand is down as well. Russia has no parachute. Much of its gold and currency reserves are frozen due to sanctions.

Russian car manufacturing has virtually stopped. It can't make stuff without semiconductors. Even its washing machine factories can't make washers. Production down to 1/6 of what it was before the war. Visa and Mastercard have virtually ensured that Russians can't use their currency overseas and China has not allowed them into its system. Russia is the third largest producer of oil behind number one, the USA and number two, Saudi Arabia. Russia has lost its access to western oil technology and investment. US companies have pulled out. China is just a consumer and has no capability of helping in this regard. The winter is well begun without the dire predictions of disaster in the EU playing out.

India relied on Russia for half of its considerable military procurement budget. That is over. They have seen just how 'good' Russian stuff is. And with Russia using 1970's weaponry in Ukraine because it has no newer technology to use nor the manufacturing capacity to replace it, that relationship is over. It was a really good source for ready cash. (FWIW India backed the wrong horse. Their inevitable move to purchase US and EU weaponry will come with cables not strings attached.)

In other words Ingliz, Russia is going to start looking like Cuba in a few years. In the very best case scenario where everything was turned back on tomorrow they have set their economy back years if not a decade or more, and their military back 30 years. With each grieving parent the ground under Putin's feet crumbles just a little more.

My guess is that Putin will, very soon, if he is not already doing it, enter secret talks with Ukraine to try to get his ass out of trouble. If he perseveres with what he is doing the best he can hope for is that Ukraine will administer his 'death by a thousand cuts'.

[litwin]

[ingliz]

@Drlee

Humans are not rational agents.

What will be, will be.

[litwin]

[Rancid]

Crimia will fall in 2023-2024 either through diplomatic means or militarily. It is question of when by now.

It is shocking that this is an actual possibility.

Russia needs to be handed a Crimean defeat so that it has a chance to address its own history and politics in a deeper and more self-reflective way.

Russia also needs to finally accept their atrocities in Crimea and accept that Crimea wasn't always Russian, and is not required to "always be Russian". This "giving Crimea to Ukraine was a historical mistake" bullshit also needs to die. The real mistake there was the cultural and ethnic genocide which has been washed away by Russian (Empire, soviet, and the current federation) propaganda. This also needs to be acknowledged and understood. The ways of imperial thinking need to die.

Defeats are good for aggressor states, especially imperial powers and aspiring imperial powers. It's the only thing that would prevent further aggression.

[Rancid]

Where's @Igor Antunov?

[Drlee]

Where's @Igor Antunov?

His mom sent him to a reeducation camp. He will meet a lot of nice new friends.

[Rancid]

Where's the war map?

[Potemkin]

Where's the war map?

[Szabo]

Where's the war map?

[Szabo]

Putin would likely have been arrested in Soviet times for claiming that Ukraine has no right to exist as a separate republic, but should actually just be part of Russia. He wouldn’t just have lost his job; he would likely have ended up chopping down fir trees in Siberia.

Putin also would have likely been shot in the back of the head for canonizing the very same royal Romanov family that had Lenin’s brother executed.

[Potemkin]

Putin also would have likely been shot in the back of the head for canonizing the very same royal Romanov family that had Lenin’s brother executed.

Indeed. It’s a fair bet that Lenin would not have approved of the career of his pastry chef’s grandson.