[Rich]

So its been two weeks since I opened this thread. I guess none of the outcomes have been completely ruled out, although I think another significant advance by the Ukrainians in 2022 is not going to happen. For the first time the fall of Kherson, I feel confident enough to ascribe an advance and say that

The Russians have captured Ozarianivka north of Horlivka.

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Kurdymukivka north of Horlivka.

I wonder how many of you have come across this guy.

To be honest I couldn't be bothered to check his earlier stuff. He seems to be a proverbial pro Russian stopped clock. For ever predicting an immanent Ukrainian collapse. The fact is that the Russians haven't been able to make a rapid advance since March. In fact according to my memory, correct me if I'm wrong but the Russians haven't proved capable of making a moderate speed advance since March. At the Russian pace it would take along time even to regain the territorial area that they lost around Kherson. The advance I documented above is of the order of a square Kilometre.

So there is certainly no reason to panic. And after Kherson its only reasonable that Ukraine's armed forces be given time to see what else they can pull off after their stupendous victories around Izium and Kherson. However I do feel some clarification by the western Liberals of what they are promising us would be helpful. As I understand it they have promised us that Ukraine will recapture all of its lost 2013 territory. Do they have any kind of timetable for this?

[Rich]

So as far as I can make out at some point the Russians at some point captured Blahodatne, Volodymyrivka and Solodke, all lie to the south of Marinka. Does anyone have an opinion on this?

[Negotiator]

You mean the way you are doing now?

I do no such thing. I complain people believe Comical Ali.

Was.

I'm not aware that Russia has recently changed.

For ever predicting an immanent Ukrainian collapse.

No idea who you talk about - but that sounds like the usual ukrainian source on the war, just in reverse.

Comical Ali is easy to spot - just check if a source always and consistently says one side is all bad and the other is all good.

Meanwhile Russia aint fighting Ukraine. Ukraine ran out of their military resources in May or something like that. Ever since Russia is fighting NATO.

[Potemkin]

For ever predicting an immanent Ukrainian collapse.

Imminent, @Rich. The word is "imminent". I'm sorry, but this is one of my bugbears.

[late]

I do no such thing.

There used to be a tv show called Fantasy Island. A lot of your posts read like they came from Fantasy Island...

The big surprise, since the start of the war, has been the extent of Russian weakness. When their initial lunge at Kiev failed, you could hear jaws dropping all over the planet.

You say everything was planned. You don't have thousands of hungry soldiers walking away from a major offensive unless things went straight to hell.

Things have been going straight to hell since the beginning.

Now that Putin is focusing heavily on civilian infrastructure, Ukraine is doing the same. But Russia is still Russia. They don't have a highly developed road system the way the other developed countries do. So if Ukraine attacks train infrastructure, Russia is kinda screwed. Sanctions means when a power station gets hit, they will be limited in how many parts they can replace.

What I am saying is that Russia, ironically, is even more vulnerable to attacks on civilian infrastructure than Ukraine is. That's mostly because we will be sending replacement parts.

Let you in on a little secret. Propaganda has to be at least vaguely plausible. You are laughable, not plausible.

[Potemkin]

The big surprise, since the start of the war, has been the extent of Russian weakness. When their initial lunge at Kiev failed, you could hear jaws dropping all over the planet.

I imagine that jaws were dropping in the Kremlin too....

[Beren]

I imagine that jaws were dropping in the Kremlin too....

[Rich]

So it seem the Russians have captured Novoselivske north west of Svatove.

Russian advances since the fall of Kherson have been extremely limited. However this has to be set against the fact that so far we've seen essentially nothing from the Ukrainians and they seem to be cutting it fine if they want to be in Crimea by Christmas.

[Rich]

It seems at some point the Russians captured Odradivka south of Bakhmut.

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Yakovlivka north east of Bakhmut.

What I found interesting is that the western sources map reported this very promptly. I could be wrong but I believe this is the first loss they've reported since the fall of Kherson. The fall of small settlements can be left unmentioned and the average western liberal is not going to notice if the map is silently updated later. It seems that the future options that I laid out at the start of the thread have now been determined. I'd say the answer was between 3 and 4. 3.5 if you like. Yes the Russians have made some grinding advances, but they're so small, that its pretty close to being a stale mate.

Even if the Russians finally do capture Bakhmut, it has no great strategic importance. If anything I'd say that Marinka is more important as its capture would help secure the land bridge.

Why are Liberals so stupid? Why are these cretins presented as experts? Damages to infrastructure effect military capability. So many western liberals seem to want to live in a pathetic fantasy world where the Ukrainian military will be unaffected by attacks on infrastructure. Even if the Ukrainians could shoot down every missile, it would still reduce front line capability. In fact the main effect of the early allied bombing campaign against Germany in WWII was to pull resources back from Russia into Germany. While no war winner on its own it was vital to easing the pressure on the Soviet Union, during the critical period when the outcome was in doubt and we were worried that the Soviet front might collapse or that Stalin might sue for a separate peace with Hitler.

[late]

Why are Liberals so stupid?

Why are you nuts?

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Bakhmutske north east of Bakhmut.

Now I'm pretty certain that I'm right in saying that Russia hasn't captured a 50k settlement since it took Lysychansk at the beginning of July. I don't think they've even managed to capture a 10k settlement since then. That's six months. During that time of cause Ukraine has taken two major advances in territory.

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Bilohorivka, Nahirne and Berestove north east of Soledar.

The Russians have essentially captured Soledar north east of Bakhmut

The Ukrainians may have a foothold in the north west of the municipal boundary of Soledar, but I called this one for Russia just because of the very elongated boundary of the official settlement. This a notable advance for the Russians and certainly put into doubt the claim by some western liberal military experts that Ukraine will have recaptured all of 2013 Ukrainian territory by the summer. However it really doesn't warrant the excitement of the pro Russian fanbois, by my calculation Russia still has not captured a 20k settlement since the beginning of July.

The Russian speed of advance may have increased recently from incredibly slow to really slow, but a new operation Bagration this is not.

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Optyne south of Bakhmut.

So while it might be nice to have a more mathematically grounded characterisation, I think my previous statement is still useful. That there has been a notable increase in the speed of the Russian advance from incredibly slow to really slow. And the West seems to have responded to this with a significant increase in equipment, particularly in the quality of weapon supplies. There are strong indications of a pattern here. When Ukraine does well, support is run down, when Russia does better, support is increased. This correlates with the proposition that western leaders are not trying to get Ukraine to total victory.

I believe Russia will have liberated Crimea by the summer.

Let's see whose predictions turn out to be accurate. Note he doesn't say "probably", he doesn't say even say "almost certainly" and he doesn't say "most of Crimea". All of Crimea by the summer. All of Crimea in the time line of this thread, the fall of Kherson to 30th June 2023.

[Rich]

So it looks like the Russians have captured Bilohorivka, north East of Soledar.

The Ukrainians may well still be in control of the Sol railway station and Mine 7 on the eastern outskirts of the Soledar municipal boundary. The capture of Soledar turned into quite a significant media event. The liberal media just can't seem to stop lying. A commentator on Sky News even claiming that Soledar was just a small village. Other liberal commentators claimed that it was the first Russian advance in months. The funny thing was that there was no need for these lies. Soledar is barely a 10K settlement, all of the Russian advances over the last two months put together don't make up for the Russian loss of Kherson and the west bank of the Dnieper, let alone the even bigger territories they lost in September.

On balance it is still Russia that must prove that they are capable of defending the territory they control over the medium term

[Rich]

The Russians have captured the Sol railway station on the far East of the Soledar municipal boundary. I'm not sure about the current status of Mine 7.
The Russians have captured Pidhorodne north east of Bakhmut.
The Russians have captured Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut.

[MadMonk]

Ukraine should focus on preparing offensive, not Bakhmut battle: US official

According to the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity and not being quoted verbatim, time favors Russia in Bakhmut, given its greater artillery resources and sheer numbers of troops.

However, the official said Russian victory there would not result in any significant shift in the war, because Ukrainian forces would retreat to well-defended positions.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby echoed this, telling reporters at the daily White House briefing Friday that the notorious Russia private military company Wagner was "pouring, just literally throwing bodies into a meat grinder" to capture Bakhmut and another town, Soledar.

"Even if they are successful, in Bakhmut and Soledar, it's not going to strategically change the dynamics on the battlefield. It's not going to set the Ukrainians back to a degree where they're all of a sudden on the back foot and they’re losing," Kirby said.

Der Spiegel: German intelligence concerned about Ukraine's Bakhmut losses

The Ukrainian army is losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day, the BND told a group of Bundestag lawmakers focused on security at a secret meeting this week, Der Spiegel reported.

The BND also warned that the capture of Bakhmut by Russian forces would have significant consequences, as it would allow Russia to make further advances.

Although Russian losses are considerably high as well, the report said this plays no role in the war tactics of the Russian army leadership as it is acting mercilessly around Bakhmut and throwing soldiers forward like cannon fodder.

[Rancid]

So as far as I can make out at some point the Russians at some point captured Blahodatne, Volodymyrivka and Solodke, all lie to the south of Marinka. Does anyone have an opinion on this?

Which is the opinion you want people to have?

[Rich]

Russia has captured Krasnopolivka north east of Soledar.

Ukraine should focus on preparing offensive, not Bakhmut battle: US official

I agree that Ukraine can certainly afford to lose Bakhmut as long as it can build up reserves launch an offensive in the south and drive through to the Azov Sea in the spring. However I suspect the motive in this media intervention is not so much to affect Ukrainian strategy at this late stage in the battle for Bakhmut, as to aid in the western media management of its loss. I saw yet another General on Sky news describe Soledar as a tiny village. This should be extremely concerning to even the most softened western liberal sheeple that our generals should be engaging in this pathetic puerile behaviour.

Der Spiegel: German intelligence concerned about Ukraine's Bakhmut losses

Some months back @Rugoz basically said I was a retard because of my focus on territorial gains. That smart people would be relying on the analysis of the western liberal and cuckservative military experts. In fact of course I'm aware that territorial gains are not a leading indicator. They can however I believe be made into a reliable one. I have no interest in becoming a sheeple for Russian propaganda either. I place little credence in the casualty claims of either side until I see them translated into territorial advances.

In this thread and the one I did in late spring last year I've been trying to get an objective grip on developments. To lay down some kind of empirical record of the course of the war as a basis for analysis of future prospects and policy choices.