Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 479 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15257973
MadMonk wrote:Both sides believe they can break the other sides will to go on, before their own that is. Recent surveys in Russia puts war favourability at 25%, down from 80% in April. 55% favour peace talks.


Putin is delusional.

Ukrainians will fight as long as the West gives them weapons, that much is obvious by now.

The West will spend ~100bn on Ukraine this year (financial, humanitarian, military). That sounds like a lot, but the US spent ~50bn a year in Afghanistan, for 2 decades. Ukraine is much more important and not a single NATO soldier must die in Ukraine.

The sanctions won't stop if Russia annexes Ukraine, so they are bascially a non-factor. In fact the sanctions are more likely to be lifted in the forseeable future if Russia loses. On top of that, 10s of millions of refugees can return to Ukraine if Russia loses.

Bottom line, neither Ukraine nor the West will give up and Russia is fucked.
User avatar
By Rancid
#15257977
ness31 wrote:And I am happy to see how this plays out lol. I really have no problem saying I’m wrong if I’m wrong. Geez :lol:


You have been wrong through out this thread, which is fine, no issues there. However, the naivety you consistently display (here and other threads) is what is dangerous. The danger is that you give way too much credence to terrible and dangerous ideas and arguments.

All ideas/arguments are not equal, and your naivety tends to elevate bullshit/bad/dangerous ideas/arguments.

That's my core critique of you. It is not that you are wrong, or wrong most of the time, or wrong all the time (not saying you are always wrong, but even if you were wrong all the time, that's not the problem either). It's that you effectively support affirmative action on ideas (via your naivety), when shit ideas do not deserve to be elevated. This is how we get jewish space lazer morons.
#15257993
Rancid wrote:Peace is in the hands of Russia/Putin. All they have to do, is turn around go home.

THEY´D LIKE TO DO IT, the problem is, that Muscovy can´t be run as empire anymore but they can´t let it go
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#15257996
Rancid wrote:Peace is in the hands of Russia/Putin. All they have to do, is turn around go home.

They obviously won't do that. Some kind of truce should be made and then wait until Putin quits somehow.
#15258003
Rugoz wrote:Putin is delusional.

So are Western Liberals. Remember six months of sanctions was meant to destroy Russia's ability to fight and have Putin crawling to the West begging for peace. Remember when I suggested that China and India might not go along with Western sanctions, how the Liberals scoffed, they said China and india would be sanctioned into annihilation if they dared to not fully capitulate to western demands on sanction. So delusional were Liberals that at one point they seemed to even imagine that Iran would cooperate on anti Western sanctions.

Where are we now, not only have big energy importers like India and China not gone along with sanctions, but Saudi Arabia, our ally, has reduced oil production so as they can import Russian oil. Really you just couldn't make this stuff up.

The sanctions won't stop if Russia annexes Ukraine, so they are basically a non-factor. In fact the sanctions are more likely to be lifted in the forseeable future if Russia loses.

No the better Russia does on the battlefield, the stronger their position will be to negotiate alleviation of the sanctions. If Russia really were to lose all its 2013 Ukraine held territory, it might never get rid of the sanctions.
By ness31
#15258004
Rancid wrote:You have been wrong through out this thread, which is fine, no issues there. However, the naivety you consistently display (here and other threads) is what is dangerous. The danger is that you give way too much credence to terrible and dangerous ideas and arguments.

All ideas/arguments are not equal, and your naivety tends to elevate bullshit/bad/dangerous ideas/arguments.

That's my core critique of you. It is not that you are wrong, or wrong most of the time, or wrong all the time (not saying you are always wrong, but even if you were wrong all the time, that's not the problem either). It's that you effectively support affirmative action on ideas (via your naivety), when shit ideas do not deserve to be elevated. This is how we get jewish space lazer morons.


I have no idea what you’re saying. Wtf is a Jewish space laser?

I don’t know how you can say anyone has been right or wrong on this subject when no one gets proper information. It’s all propaganda and no, and that’s really NOT fine. I’m not naive, I just don’t believe the narrative being pushed in this thread or in the mainstream. I suppose I have to believe that ‘Pootin’ fell down the stairs and shat himself too, because that’s the type of stuff we’re fed.

People like you want to see Putin share the same fate as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Until I see George W Bush down a hole or with noose around his neck, I don’t EVER want to be involved in a narrative that endorses that kind of global vigilantism. The assassination of Putins character, a leader that rebuilt his country and helped to keep shit stable for most of my lifetime does not deserve that ignominy.

But give yourself a pat on the back Rancid, there aren’t too many people IRL that see it my way. It’s definitely your vision that they share.
By Rugoz
#15258007
Rich wrote:So are Western Liberals. Remember six months of sanctions was meant to destroy Russia's ability to fight and have Putin crawling to the West begging for peace. Remember when I suggested that China and India might not go along with Western sanctions, how the Liberals scoffed, they said China and india would be sanctioned into annihilation if they dared to not fully capitulate to western demands on sanction. So delusional were Liberals that at one point they seemed to even imagine that Iran would cooperate on anti Western sanctions.


Who are those "liberals"? I'm not one of them, so why should I care. :eh:

Rich wrote:No the better Russia does on the battlefield, the stronger their position will be to negotiate alleviation of the sanctions. If Russia really were to lose all its 2013 Ukraine held territory, it might never get rid of the sanctions.


That's not how it works. Sanctions are punishment for breaking the rules. If Russia annexes more Ukranian territory, there's no way the West will alleviate the sanctions anytime soon. If Russia loses and leaves Ukraine, the international order has been restored and sanctions are not necessary anymore. A regime change would make it even easier of course.
#15258014
Rugoz wrote:That's not how it works. Sanctions are punishment for breaking the rules. If Russia annexes more Ukranian territory, there's no way the West will alleviate the sanctions anytime soon. If Russia loses and leaves Ukraine, the international order has been restored and sanctions are not necessary anymore. A regime change would make it even easier of course.

:lol: You do have some fanciful ideas.



You see in this world there's two kinds of dictators / authoritarian leaders, those that sought for western liberal leaders approval, Saddam, Gaddafi, Milosovich and those that told western leaders to go fuck themselves, Assad, China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

If Putin chose meek compliance, trust me the western demands will never be sated. There will be reparations bill, that Russia can never pay off. There will be endless demands for ever more Russians to face ever more war crimes trials. Putin most certainly made a total ass of the military and diplomatic leadership, maybe he regrets starting this special operation, maybe he doesn't, but he needs to come out of the war with the control of as much natural resources as possible, as many ports as possible, as many strategic points of control on rivers, bridges, railways and major roads, and ideally he wants to have Kiev and Karkhov in artillery range, so he's got his boot on Ukraine's throat.

The more he controls, the more power he has, the more leverage he has the weaker the sanctions will be. Doesn't matter what western leaders say, look what happened with the Taliban. They certainly didn't play by western leaders rule. No Putin should listen to the wise council of Slim Charles.

Last edited by Rich on 05 Dec 2022 09:47, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By Beren
#15258015
Rich wrote:


Saddam

Putin should listen to the wise council of Slim Charles.


The Godfather was Saddam's favourite movie allegedly, it seems he should have rather been into Clint Eastwood. :lol: I'd bet Putin would also prefer Michael Corleone to Dirty Harry, let alone any African American gangsters from the ghetto.


:lol:
By ness31
#15258018
I just realized what Rancid actually said about me in his “core critique”. How excellent. God give me strength. I really don’t know how much humbler you’d like me to be in this life :knife:
By Rugoz
#15258031
Rich wrote:The more he controls, the more power he has, the more leverage he has the weaker the sanctions will be.


There will be a new "iron curtain" and sanctions that will last decades. You obviously don't understand how this works.
#15258033
Rugoz wrote:There will be a new "iron curtain" and sanctions that will last decades. You obviously don't understand how this works.

Sanctions are essentially a form of virtue signalling. To be truly effective, to change the target nation’s behaviour, sanctions would have to be escalated into a blockade, which would be an act of war. The West won’t do that. It wants to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, not to the last Westerner. The strength of sanctions is therefore inversely proportional to the cost of those sanctions to the West, which in turn is directly proportional to the success of Russia in its war against Ukraine.
User avatar
By litwin
#15258036
putin´s Communist deputy suggested sending stray dogs to Ukraine, teaching them to blow up tanks


I believe mobiks are slightly more intelligent, and with a lot of training are able to run under Ukrainian tanks instead of their own.


User avatar
By Beren
#15258037
Russian Communists - Once the ruling party of the USSR, now just a joke. Meanwhile, the Wagner Group is the new vanguard.

“But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first.” (Matthew 19 : 30)

A great invention of Putin's post-Soviet fascism is that he still can be buddies with the commies and call them comrades, so they don't have to be deported to Siberia. :lol:
User avatar
By litwin
#15258039
Wonderful Monday news


BREAKING : In Saratov colony , DEEP INSIDE MUSCOVY , an Ukrainian drone attacked a military airfield, damaging two Tu-95 strategic bombers. :lol:




User avatar
By litwin
#15258040
Beren wrote:Russian Communists - Once the ruling party of the USSR, now just a joke. Meanwhile, the Wagner Group is the new vanguard.

“But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first.” (Matthew 19 : 30)

A great invention of Putin's post-Soviet fascism is that he still can be buddies with the commies and call them comrades, so they don't have to be deported to Siberia. :lol:

#15258046
Russian oil embargo starts today along with the oil price cap for Russian oil. If you buy over that cap then Western transport companies and insuranes companies are not going to work with you along with financial institutions and markets.

Russian economy is gonna feel this along with dead gas export.
By Rugoz
#15258048
Potemkin wrote:Sanctions are essentially a form of virtue signalling. To be truly effective, to change the target nation’s behaviour, sanctions would have to be escalated into a blockade, which would be an act of war. The West won’t do that. It wants to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, not to the last Westerner. The strength of sanctions is therefore inversely proportional to the cost of those sanctions to the West, which in turn is directly proportional to the success of Russia in its war against Ukraine.


Sanctions obviously impose a cost, in this case much more so on Russia than on the West. Whether they are successful in triggering regime change is another question.

Russia was successful in Crimea, yet the West didn't lift the sanctions imposed afterwards in 8 years.

The West won't lift the current sanctions if Russia grabs more territory. It's politically infeasible, at least in the forseeable future.
#15258064
Potemkin wrote:Sanctions are essentially a form of virtue signalling.


Disagree. They actually have impact. The Russian economy has in fact shrunk.

It's a political tool, and can be effective depending on the circumstances. In the case of Russia, it's a fairly useful tool. It's not a silver bullet, but it's an effective tool.

That said, I say we give Russia the war against NATO they keep saying they are fighting.


A virtue signal would be the UN vote to condemn Russia.

Sanctions are real. To run a war you need blood and treasure. Ukraine is imposing the blood cost to Russia, while the west is helping to impose the treasure cost.
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