MadMonk wrote:Both sides believe they can break the other sides will to go on, before their own that is. Recent surveys in Russia puts war favourability at 25%, down from 80% in April. 55% favour peace talks.
Putin is delusional.
Ukrainians will fight as long as the West gives them weapons, that much is obvious by now.
The West will spend ~100bn on Ukraine this year (financial, humanitarian, military). That sounds like a lot, but the US spent ~50bn a year in Afghanistan, for 2 decades. Ukraine is much more important and not a single NATO soldier must die in Ukraine.
The sanctions won't stop if Russia annexes Ukraine, so they are bascially a non-factor. In fact the sanctions are more likely to be lifted in the forseeable future if Russia loses. On top of that, 10s of millions of refugees can return to Ukraine if Russia loses.
Bottom line, neither Ukraine nor the West will give up and Russia is fucked.