JohnRawls wrote:May be, i will still go with conservative estimates in my mind. If they lost 3.3 trillion in a year with very good oil and gas prices while exporting everything, then the hole should be much much larger when the exports are cut, the prices are lower and the logistics cost severely more.
It doesn't mean that they won't try accounting and tax trickery to make it a bit better but there are limitations to this if they don't go to extreme measures like literally freezing accounts and taking money from the people. That in itself I guess is default with how many banks are state owned or semi-state owned.
Real monetary issues and measures will appear at the end of summer probably. Before that tax squeezing and accounting trickery probably will happen but that won't be enough with the monetary hole they are in. I don't think that the competent part of the Russian leadership will be able to fix this without course correction. You can find 100 billion there or a trillion here but you can't do that consistently, over years while the hole just keeps getting larger and larger.
dont forget about USA/Liberal order pressure , which works well Moscow produces 1 % of the world GDP, its Spanish size economy against all of us .
great post man