[Beren]

Russia Warns of Escalation As Germany Greenlights Leopard Tanks for Ukraine

► Show Spoiler

No nuclear threats, nothing to take seriously this time.

[Politics_Observer]

Well, it's good to see we are sending our M1 Abrams tanks, and the Germans are sending their Leopard 2 tanks. This will help further Ukraine's aim of taking back the land stolen from them by Russia and ending the war on their terms.

US President Biden announced Wednesday that he plans to send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, reversing the administration’s longstanding resistance to requests from Kyiv for the highly sophisticated but maintenance-heavy vehicles.

Biden said in White House remarks that this US support is about helping Ukraine "defend its sovereignty" and that sending tanks does not mean it is an "offensive threat."

Biden's announcement came after Germany confirmed earlier Wednesday that it would send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine from its own stock. The two nations had appeared to be in standoff as German officials indicated Berlin would only send their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine if the US sent the M-1 Abrams tanks.

If you are just reading in, here's what you need to know about today's developments:

Why this is significant: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “At This Hour” Wednesday that the tanks "will significantly strengthen" Kyiv's combat capabilities. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently asked Western allies for modern tanks as his country prepares for an expected major Russian counteroffensive in the spring.

With both the US and Germany pledging to send tanks to Ukraine, other countries, especially those with the German-made tanks, have also announced contributions to the front lines. CNN cannot confirm the total number of Leopard 2 tanks to be delivered, but pledges made by multiple countries so far mean the Ukrainian military is in line to receive dozens of the tanks. Germany’s main governing party said on Wednesday that Ukraine’s Western allies will send the country a total of around 80 Leopard 2 main battle tanks.

Why send tanks now: Sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine will provide Kyiv’s forces with a modern and powerful military vehicle ahead of a potential Russian spring offensive. It will also come as a blow to the Kremlin, which has seen a growing campaign to equip Ukrainian troops with high-tech fighting systems as Russia’s ground war nears the one-year mark.

Speaking ahead of Biden's announcement, senior US officials framed the decision as an investment in Ukraine’s “longer term capabilities,” an indication the administration sees the now 11-month-long war extending well into the future. Ukraine hopes the new tanks can help it retake territory seized by Russia, including in the Donbas. That could also include Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... 6b335e396a

[Szabo]

Hey fellas, anyone got any ideas on how long it will be before Ukraine starts getting western fighter jets? That would be the day. I say eight months from now, hopefully when everything’s liberated but the grand prize, crimea.

[litwin]

[Rich]

So lets be generous to Ukrainian prospects and make September 1st 2022 our reference point. September 1st was near as dammit the high water mark of Russian advances. The Ukrainians have made significant net territorial gains over the last nearly five months. But even assuming they can sustain that rate of advance, by my rough estimates its going to take over three years to recapture all 2013 Ukrainian territory. I would suggest therefore that committing ourselves to regain all territory lost is folly. Many things may happen in three years, who knows what unforeseen crisis will appear in the next three years that demand our attention and focus.

There is also the question of the problems that complete victory may bring. When we got complete victory in Afghanistan with the soviet's withdrawing, we were of course able to forget about Afghanistan. I know Afghanistan was to cause some problems later, but for many years most people in the West could forget the country had ever existed. I very much doubt a defeated Russia will prove to be so benign as Afghanistan did. It would certainly be nice to control Crimea. Sevastopol would make a fantastic Naval base for the United States and NATO allies and there are Black Sea oil and gas fields we may want to exploit.

But to pacify Crimea a significant amount of ethnic cleansing will be necessary. The Azov movement will have to be unleashed to commit a reign of terror against any that don't want to embrace a return to Ukraine. This will not do much for Crimea's economy, that presumably will be wrecked by its war of "liberation". Ukraine will require massive amounts of money after the war even without having to reintegrate a recalcitrant Donbas and Crimea. Even the American public renowned for its very long attention spans may start to tire of supporting Ukraine.

So why not start addressing the pursuit of a compromise peace now?

[Rancid]

So why not start addressing the pursuit of a compromise peace now?

Because your assessment of what the future holds is likely astronomically wrong.

[Rancid]

I don’t understand why the Russians are bitching so much about tanks being sent

Because Putin is a cry baby, and he can't match it. The best weaponry he can receive from his shithole allies are minimal in capability. So minimal that he can only use them to commit acts of terror as opposed to hitting actual military targets. All he's getting are Iranian drones (to terrorize civilians), and shells from North Korea.

Both of which only embolden the cause against Putin.

Queue "but but but.. nuclear weapons"...

[Wels]

Russia Warns of Escalation As Germany Greenlights Leopard Tanks for Ukraine

Russia talks about escalation?

^ re Rancid: Seems one new plan is to hunt down the "Wagner" group. The US said they will "pursue" the recently outlawed mercenary group with "every appropriate tool". Ned Price, a spokesperson for the US Department of State, said the US will hit the groups operations in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/wa ... 0d4e32961d

[Rich]

Because your assessment of what the future holds is likely astronomically wrong.

You wish!

I have been wrong, like when I predicted Hilary would get 350 - 400 EV upon her assumption of the nomination in 2016. But I do try and learn from my errors. I now defer to Nate Silver on US election predictions.

The eternal sunshine of the spotless liberal mind.

When it comes to international conflict, I would suggest that my assessments have far outstripped the Liberal and Cuckservative so called experts. In Syria years before the Syrian conflict broke out when it was still a hypothetical I predicted that Israel would veto the removal of the Assad regime. In the months before the 2003 Iraq war I was arguing in favour of the war with a friend. The big concern on the left at that point was not that it would be seen as a failure but that victory would open the way to Tehran and Damascus. I said to him "Don't worry no one will be thanking America for invading Iraq. I also stated categorically that the US would not go on to Tehran or Damascus. This train terminates in Baghdad. Assessments that have stood up well over the last two decades.

But perhaps most pertinent is Afghanistan. I wanted to support the Northern Alliance as well as overthrow Saddam prior to 9/11. But I remember when they demanded that the Northern Alliance not enter Baghdad. I said I wash my hands off this nonsense. Supporting the Northern Alliance was quite viable if it followed my criteria.

1 The primary enemy is Pakistan, not the Taliban or Al Qaeda which are just their oily rags. No operation in Afghanistan must be dependent on Pakistan it must be operate from the north.

2 There must be no attempt to occupy or administrate Afghanistan, that must be left to local allies.

3 While we can support our allies with arms, supplies, intelligence, air power special forces and even even regular ground troops for particular operations, our forces must not be holding territory or engaged in anything remotely related to policing.

4 None of our people, military or civilian in Kabul without control of the Panshir valley. There was no excuse for the debacle of trying to withdraw thorough Bagram Airbase. Our troops should only operate from a secure friendly land border in a country without a coast. If we need to pull out we withdraw through that land border, taking all out equipment with us.

It took 20 years for me to be completely vindicated on Afghanistan. Could I say I was 100% certain that the Liberal / Cuckservative toy town nation building project in Afghanistan would fail. No as I can't say 100% that Ukraine won't regain all its territory, no but I ould say then as I can say now our professed strategy is cretinous.

[Rugoz]

But to pacify Crimea a significant amount of ethnic cleansing will be necessary.

A silly Russian fantasy. There were small protests in 2014, but nothing that would suggest a mass uprising. The Russians simply took it by force.

[QatzelOk]

A silly Russian fantasy.

I like the introduction of a "silly fantasy" meme in this thread.

Like, how is NATO going to "win" a war against nuclear Russia? By getting some of its own cities nuked or otherwise destroyed?

How does destroying Western cities HELP Western oligarchs?

Does it provide a cover for all the Western oligarchs' lies and thieving that are coming to the surface? Will it allow our bankrupt banks to seize "dead by Russian nuke" properties all over NATOstan?

[JohnRawls]

So lets be generous to Ukrainian prospects and make September 1st 2022 our reference point. September 1st was near as dammit the high water mark of Russian advances. The Ukrainians have made significant net territorial gains over the last nearly five months. But even assuming they can sustain that rate of advance, by my rough estimates its going to take over three years to recapture all 2013 Ukrainian territory. I would suggest therefore that committing ourselves to regain all territory lost is folly. Many things may happen in three years, who knows what unforeseen crisis will appear in the next three years that demand our attention and focus.

There is also the question of the problems that complete victory may bring. When we got complete victory in Afghanistan with the soviet's withdrawing, we were of course able to forget about Afghanistan. I know Afghanistan was to cause some problems later, but for many years most people in the West could forget the country had ever existed. I very much doubt a defeated Russia will prove to be so benign as Afghanistan did. It would certainly be nice to control Crimea. Sevastopol would make a fantastic Naval base for the United States and NATO allies and there are Black Sea oil and gas fields we may want to exploit.

But to pacify Crimea a significant amount of ethnic cleansing will be necessary. The Azov movement will have to be unleashed to commit a reign of terror against any that don't want to embrace a return to Ukraine. This will not do much for Crimea's economy, that presumably will be wrecked by its war of "liberation". Ukraine will require massive amounts of money after the war even without having to reintegrate a recalcitrant Donbas and Crimea. Even the American public renowned for its very long attention spans may start to tire of supporting Ukraine.

So why not start addressing the pursuit of a compromise peace now?

Your wrong. Russia will collapse economically before it collapses militarily by the looks of it and even military collapse is not far away out of range of unthinkable.

Did you know that Ukraine had a battle pass and it just needs to achieve enough points to unlock all of its potential:

[Szabo]

Did you know that Ukraine had a battle pass and it just needs to achieve enough points to unlock all of its potential…

I can’t wait till we get one of these:

[XogGyux]

Your wrong. Russia will collapse economically before it collapses militarily by the looks of it and even military collapse is not far away out of range of unthinkable.

Did you know that Ukraine had a battle pass and it just needs to achieve enough points to unlock all of its potential:

Let's just give them nukes

[litwin]

bad news for the horde, Finally leopards will see real action on the battlefield not just sitting in Germany on a training field

Western tanks will 'overmatch' the horde's on the battlefield

'European Security Research Fellow at Royal United Services Institute, Ed Arnold said the supply of the American M1 Abrams, the British Challenger 2 and the German-made Leopard 2 could be key in pushing horde´s forces out of Ukraine's occupied territory.

[Rancid]

You wish!

Hubris.

[litwin]

Hubris.

The bottom line: Putin has drastically accelerated Russia's decline to the point of chaos in the near future.

[litwin]

[JohnRawls]

I can’t wait till we get one of these:

B2 is impossible. It is strategic aviation packed with classified technology which takes insane of amount of money to maintain and the most experienced pilots to pilot. It doesnt even bring even any benefit for Ukraine to use them. At best they can bomb Russian cities with it for no reason whatsoever which is basically useless for the amount of money they will need to maintain, train and so on with the plane.

Classical case of detrimental equipment. Kinda like challanger 2. You cant just send 14 challanger 2 tanks and think that it is good. I get it with Abramses and Leopards because Ukraine will get already 100s of leopards and probably 100s of Abramses so creating a logistics and maintanence chain is a okay but still expensive. On the other hand 14 challanger 2 tanks or b2 bombers are just stupid if there is no volume. And with B2 there cant be any volume by default since even us has them in double digits. And I think the number is in low double digits.

[QatzelOk]

B2 is impossible. It is strategic aviation packed with classified technology which takes insane of amount of money to maintain and the most experienced pilots to pilot.

So this isn't the right plane for the job?

Interesting talking politics and human survival with motor vehicle fetishists.

For politics, one need look elsewhere like James Kunstler:

...our country is right now deeply involved in a war between a Biden family client, Ukraine, and its angry relative, Russia.

The USA has pumped more than $100-billion into Ukraine just this past year. That’s quite a return-on-investment for the million or so Hunter Biden grifted out of the Burisma gas company.

It is alleged that Ukraine has operated as a gigantic international money laundry, especially since our State Department and Intel Community overthrew Ukraine’s government in 2014 and put in a series of errand boys.

Is the Biden family corrupt enough to start a nuclear war to cover up its scams? Or is the Biden family just one of the many corrupt officials in the US government who need a nuclear war to "clear their records?"