[Puffer Fish]

saw this commentary from an alternative news commentator
we are in great danger (video link)
we are in danger (part 2)

What do you think? I know this is an important issue, but are they exaggerating about its importance?
This does seem like the type of stuff that sets the prelude for future conflicts. Are we in danger of some sort of WW3 ?

here's a transcript from the video:

"What I'm about to show you is arguably the biggest story in the world right now, in my opinion, but it's being totally ignored by the mainstream media.
Of course they don't want you to know about it because it will upend the global order.
The U.S. just announced that they're getting ready for war with China and Russia simultaneously.
The U.S. is quickly losing power.
This week defense secretary Lloyd Austin announced their new 2024 military budget which aims directly at China. It includes a 40% increase in spending to be able to address the Chinese military threat. The Pentagon recently said China is "the most comprehensive and serious challenge to the U.S. national security strategy.
video of Lloyd Austin speaking: 'This is a strategy driven budget, and one driven by the seriousness of our strategic competition with the People's Republic of China.'
So U.S. national security is under attack because China is becoming an economic superpower.
video of General Mark A. Milley speaking: 'Right now the international system is under stress. For the first time in the nation's history, the United States is facing two major nuclear powers, whose vital national security interests are in competition with the United States.'
They're calling it their 'Pacific Deterrence Initiative'.
We're going to deter China and Russia by provoking them in their backyards. The United States this week announced four new military bases will be built in the Philippines. The goal of these bases is for war with China. The Chinese war minister Qin Gang warned earlier this month that if the U.S. doesn't change its course on its military buildup in the Asia Pacific and other policies aimed at China, it will lead to conflict and confrontation.
The U.S. is not going to back off for the following reason - and this is the most important part - Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are about to alter the international power structure, and the monetary system.
This is why we're getting ready for war.
The biggest story in the world happened this week in Moscow and your mainstream media ignored it. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin signed 14 documents in their face to face meeting. The biggest had to do with trade and currency. The media wants you distracted from the U.S. banking crisis and the decline of the U.S. dollar."​

"Saudi Arabia openly talked about settling their oil trades in the Chinese currency, yuan. This would replace the U.S. dollar."​

Then they talk about how that will make it harder for the U.S. to put sanctions on other countries, and also how Saudi Arabia and Mexico are getting ready to join the BRIC alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

[Puffer Fish]

I remember years ago an Economics teacher telling us that if the world ever dumped the U.S. dollar, it would lead to some serious inflation problems.
Not only that but it would make the dollar experience twice as much inflation when they print more money than it does now.

The U.S. wouldn't be able to get away with printing so much money (to maintain the U.S. national debt) if the rest of the world didn't want U.S. dollars.

If the dollar were no longer the "world reserve currency", it would probably force the U.S. to have to make some big budget cuts.
With big economic implications for Americans and American global military dominance.

[ingliz]

Is the PetroDollar on its way out?

China Settles First LNG Trade in Yuan in Latest Hit to Dollar

30 March 2023

TotalEnergies SE, a French multinational, purchased 65,000 tonnes of natural gas from China via the Shanghai Petroleum & National Gas Exchange.

[JohnRawls]

Is the PetroDollar on its way out?

China Settles First LNG Trade in Yuan in Latest Hit to Dollar

30 March 2023

TotalEnergies SE, a French multinational, purchased 65,000 tonnes of natural gas from China via the Shanghai Petroleum & National Gas Exchange.

I will always facepalm at statements like this. Just ask yourself, how will anything suplant Euro or Dollar if the currency you suggesting is not freely convertible, not freely flowing and also fully under the whim of X government so who the hell would use it or trust it.

For all the shit Euro or Dollar gets, they are freely convertible, free flowing besides sanctions and relatively non controlled by the government besides policy/interest rates.

Ruble or Yuan are not even allowed to be freely converted inside their own countries with serious capital controls on flow while the government's use them as a manipulatory tool for trade. This doesn't produce confidence nor anyone would want to use them as reserve currencies unless they are under sanctions and have no other choice.

[Fasces]

To be fair, the objective of the Chinese central bank isn't to supplant the Euro or Dollar, but to be one of many currencies used globally. But yeah. Ain't happening.

[JohnRawls]

To be fair, the objective of the Chinese central bank isn't to supplant the Euro or Dollar, but to be one of many currencies used globally. But yeah. Ain't happening.

And that is totally okay for export driven countries since you regulate exports to a degree this way and make adjustments to price of manufacturing.

The simplest idea is that Russia exports X Gas and X Oil which is sold in dollars so if they make the rubble cheaper then they get more Rubles for that export by devaluing their currency to cover whatever budgetary concerns they have. Same goes for China just for more products. They also regulate the cost of manufacturing and exports this way to a lesser extent. Perfectly legit practices to regulate your economy unless it pisses somebody off and causes a trade war but that is a different subject all together.

Those actions conflict though with the "reserve currency" idea which most people do not understand and keep hammering that it is the end of Euro/Dollar reserve currency status.

[late]

What do you think? I know this is an important issue, but are they exaggerating about its importance?

This does seem like the type of stuff that sets the prelude for future conflicts. Are we in danger of some sort of WW3 ?

1) If you want to know, you need to learn.

2) They are not exaggerating it's importance.

3) Yes; but I have lived with the possibility of WW3 for over 70 years, I may wait a bit before I panic.

4) The dollar is trending down as the reserve currency. But at this rate, you will be an old man before it gets dumped. And the ways things are going, we will suffer the least from this crisis. Which means the dollar stays safer than the alternatives for a generation, or more.

You love goofballs, you should do something about that.

[Puffer Fish]

To be fair, the objective of the Chinese central bank isn't to supplant the Euro or Dollar, but to be one of many currencies used globally. But yeah. Ain't happening.

I think they want to start eliminating their use of the dollar, wherever possible. That still makes up a big chunk of the world economy because so much of the world's trade is with China.
China holds huge reserves of U.S. dollars, but I think in more recent years they've begun to see the writing on the wall and are deciding not to increase those reserves.
There is some danger that they might decide to suddenly dump it all if they see inflation going up high enough.

[Fasces]

They don't want that, it's a security guarantee against the US. They want more countries to accept Yuan (in addition to the dollar) because they want to insulate their exports from US pressures. If you're sitting on a few hundred billion of RMB that will become worthless if hostilities break out you're less likely to sign on to the idea.

These actions all point to a China that has learned from the mistakes of the USSR and wants to integrate themselves into the international system as a means to guarantee their security. The US is trying to keep it relatively isolated to maintain its own interests as well.