[Rich]

The Russians have captured Horob'ivka east of Dvorichna east of Kharkov.

[Rich]

The Russians have captured Hyranykivka, Masyutivka and Lyman Pershyi south of Dvorichna and est of Kharkov.
The Ukrainians have captured Levadne, Novodarivka, Rivnopil, Neshkuchne, Storozheve blahodotne, and Makarikva north of Straomylnivka.
The Ukrainians have captured Lokove south of Zaporizhzhia.

So that its for this time period. The Ukrainian offensive has cut into Russian net gains but all the settlements are small. In terms of the alternatives laid out in the OP this seems a clear option 4. A slow grinding advance for the Russians.

[Negotiator]

What are you talking about, the russian offensive hasnt started yet ?

The russians said they will first grind down the ukrainian military. Thats still not finished.

[Rich]

:?:

What are you talking about, the russian offensive hasnt started yet ?

So I rather bodged up the start of the thread and failed to lay out its purpose clearly in the OP. It was only at post 10ish that I mentioned the time frame from 15th November 2022 to June 2023. My apologies for this poor posting.

The idea was to nail people down on their predictions for a fixed period. @Rugoz essentially said I was a retard, that I was intellectually impaired for focusing on territorial gains. Of course he just humiliates himself by such absurd remarks.

Territorial gain is not a leading indicator of a war's outcome.It is however the only indicator that has some kind of objective measure. So the purpose of the thread was to pin people down in their predictions for territorial gains / losses over a fixed period that could later be referenced and judged. Of course when asked to do this, the cheer leaders for both sides strangely became a lot more reticent.

If someone else feels moved to start another thread for a fixed period, I would be happy to contribute. Personally I intend to prioritise the WWII day by day thread.

[ThirdTerm]

This is the most likely outcome. Ukraine will be divided in half. East Ukraine will be occupied by Russia, while the West will control West Ukraine, based on the Korea model.



The Korea Model
Why an Armistice Offers the Best Hope for Peace in Ukraine

Carter Malkasian

In the middle of August 1952, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai traveled nearly 4,000 miles to Moscow to meet with the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Zhou was acting as an emissary for the leader of China, Mao Zedong. The two Communist powers were allies at the time, but it was not a partnership of equals: the Soviet Union was a superpower, and China depended on it for economic assistance and military equipment. Two years earlier, Mao and Stalin had embarked on a joint venture of sorts, giving their blessing to the North Korean leader Kim Il Sung when he invaded South Korea.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... stice-nato

[Neo]

@ThirdTerm

The best hope for long-lasting peace in Ukraine, is that Ukraine takes back, through military force, ALL land that rightfully belongs to it. That includes ALL of Crimea and ALL of east Ukraine. There is no substitute for absolute victory.

[noemon]

@ThirdTerm

The best hope for long-lasting peace in Ukraine, is that Ukraine takes back, through military force, ALL land that rightfully belongs to it. That includes ALL of Crimea and ALL of east Ukraine. There is no substitute for absolute victory.

Why? This is a recipe for permanent war as Russia will never come to terms with Ukraine humiliating it and the recipe for possibly nuclear war.

By your absolutist logic, Germany should not even exist today.

The best hope for long-lasting peace is an agreement where both sides can save face and where their legitimate concerns are accounted for.

Eastern and Southern Ukraine is Russian, ethnically, nationally, historically and de facto on the ground.

Ukraine could also pre-empt things by offering non-occupied Odessa as well for the rest of the country gaining NATO entry plus some land concession in Kharkiv. This is not unusual at all in such deals but in fact standard practice. It is after all a whopping 96% Russian-speaking and the crown jewel of Russian history. Doubtful long-lasting peace can be guaranteed without taking into account legitimate and factually real Russian history. That would save a lot of future grief.

Even the most stupid among the western apologists should be able to understand that gifted land is predicated on tethering with the one that gifted it. Once the tether breaks so does the gift and no amount of technical moralism changes that very simple statement.

[Rugoz]

Why? This is a recipe for permanent war as Russia will never come to terms with Ukraine humiliating it and the recipe for possibly nuclear war.

By your absolutist logic, Germany should not even exist today.

What utter nonsense. Germany was humiliated, and it was occupied. Russia won't be occupied, but the least we can do is to make sure its aggressive war of conquest fails miserably. Only then its imperialist mindset might change.

[noemon]

Humiliation is relative. Germany caused the biggest agony in human history and never paid reparations nor was she humiliated by chopping it up.

If PO’s mindset prevailed, she should not currently exist at all as a nation for what she did which is about 1 billion times worse than Russia.

Nato military presence in say Odessa, is de facto western occupation of Russia proper, same could be said for Kiev. The third and fourth largest Russian cities after Moscov and St Petersburg.

In what kind of planet did western hubris expect NATO to literally occupy the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities without war and nuclear war breaking out and in what kind of planet do the Ukrainians live exactly?

[Rugoz]

Humiliation is relative. Germany caused the biggest agony in human history and never paid reparations nor was she humiliated by chopping it up.

If PO’s mindset prevailed, she should not currently exist at all as a nation for what she did which is about 1 billion times worse than Russia.

Nato military presence in say Odessa, is de facto western occupation of Russia proper, same could be said for Kiev. The third and fourth largest Russian cities after Moscov and St Petersburg.

In what kind of planet did western hubris expect NATO to literally occupy the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities without war and nuclear war breaking out and in what kind of planet do the Ukrainians live exactly?

Oh right, now we're back to Ukraine being "Russia proper".

Funny how all those advocating "peace" are secretly (or openly) just denying Ukraine's right to exist as a sovereign state, even though the whole freaking world recognizes it as such.

I have nothing to say to your kind.

[noemon]

Then don’t, your kind is totally discredited and yourself even more particularly.

Ukraine is a state founded by Russia and not by its own blood, shed and tears.

This is historical fact, it contains the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities and some people inside it actually believe that these cities can be occupied by NATO without Russia protest.

Your hubris is beyond disgusting and has dragged Europe into its first large scale war since ww2.

Your kind was not even aware where Ukraine is or what it is until last year.

[Rugoz]

Ukraine is a state founded by Russia and not by its own blood, shed and tears.

Ahistorical nonsense, even Potemkin denies it. Many countries have borders drawn by imperial powers, that doesn't mean they did not earn them.

Needless to say Ukraine's history is utterly irrelevant to the fact that Ukraine is recognized as a sovereign state by the entire world.

Your kind was not even aware where Ukraine is or what it is until last year.

[noemon]

Imperial powers drawing borders in the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities applies to you, a semi German Swiss who rejects NATO for Switzerland but has the gall to demand NATO occupies Russian cities.

Your anti-Russian hysteria btw has absolutely nothing to do with this war as it exists long before it. This war merely gives you cover to expand on that visceral hatred.

Swiss neutrality itself was codified internationally purely because of Russia insisting on it as a buffer between itself and Napoleon.

Switzerland was the Ukraine of the 18-19th centuries.

Though your hatred is more than because of that.

Russia failed to take Kiev(3rd largest Russian-speaking city in the world) and it also failed to take Odessa(4th largest Russian-speaking city in the world), it destroyed its reputation and partly its economy. Sweden and Finland are now in NATO. From a western perspective this is total victory especially given the fact that western soldiers have not even participated. From a Ukranian perspective, it is also a massive victory as it finally proved itself as a nation and managed to hold both Kiev and Odessa as well as Kharkiv, another Russian stronghold.

Count your blessings Ukraine and Europe because this could not have gone any better than it already has. Anything more equates to pushing Russia into the same corner as post-WW1 Germany.

Lastly, you should not mention other posters without at the very least quoting them direclty because you are engaging in para-philologia.

[Rugoz]

Imperial powers drawing borders in the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities applies to you, a semi German Swiss who rejects NATO for Switzerland but has the gall to demand NATO occupies Russian cities.

Your anti-Russian hysteria btw has absolutely nothing to do with this war as it exists long before it. This war merely gives you cover to expand on that visceral hatred.

Swiss neutrality itself was codified internationally purely because of Russia insisting on it as a buffer between itself and Napoleon.

Switzerland was the Ukraine of the 18-19th centuries.

Though your hatred is more than because of that.

Russia failed to take Kiev(3rd largest Russian-speaking city in the world) and it also failed to take Odessa(4th largest Russian-speaking city in the world), it destroyed its reputation and partly its economy. Sweden and Finland are now in NATO. From a western perspective this is total victory especially given the fact that western soldiers have not even participated. From a Ukranian perspective, it is also a massive victory as it finally proved itself as a nation and managed to hold both Kiev and Odessa as well as Kharkiv, another Russian stronghold.

Count your blessings Ukraine and Europe because this could not have gone any better than it already has. Anything more equates to pushing Russia into the same corner as post-WW1 Germany.

Lastly, you should not mention other posters without at the very least quoting them direclty because you are engaging in para-philologia.

My nationality is utterly irrelevant to this debate.

I wonder who gave you 3 likes for this drivel. The usual assholes I imagine.

[noemon]

My nationality is utterly irrelevant to this debate.

No, it is not because you reject NATO for your country but somehow have the audacity to demand that NATO must occupy the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities in the world for Europe, yourself and the world to be allegedly "safe" and for justice to prevail.

Of course, your hypocrisy is totally and entirely laughable.

[Rugoz]

No, it is not because you reject NATO for your country but somehow have the audacity to demand that NATO must occupy the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities in the world for Europe, yourself and the world to be allegedly "safe" and for justice to prevail.

Of course, your hypocrisy is totally and entirely laughable.

I wonder what triggered your descent into madness in the past few months.

[noemon]

In case you have a short memory, in my more than 10 years in PoFo I have been a western critic and not a western apologist.

I have my own balance and equilibrium that is both unique and encyclopedic.

I helped the pro-western brigade take down Russian propaganda when Russia became an aggressor but that does not mean that Russia does not actually have legitimate concerns, now that what I consider primary objectives to have been completed and the war has turned into a meat-grinder with no movement, it is time for balance and not maximalism.

If you did not hate Russia with a passion, you would be able to see that actually.

[Saeko]

No, it is not because you reject NATO for your country but somehow have the audacity to demand that NATO must occupy the 3rd and 4th largest Russian cities in the world for Europe, yourself and the world to be allegedly "safe" and for justice to prevail.

Of course, your hypocrisy is totally and entirely laughable.

They are not Russian cities, Noemon. They are Ukrainian cities populated by ethnic Russians.

[noemon]

They are not Russian cities, Noemon. They are Ukrainian cities populated by ethnic Russians.

They are both populated by ethnic-Russians almost purely as in the case of Odessa and also given to Ukraine as a gift by Russia.

Do you believe countries gift areas without tethering them onto themselves Saeko? Or do you believe that Russia must accept NATO into cities its people live and which it has gifted to what it has been a Russian nation?

[Saeko]

They are both populated by ethnic-Russians almost purely as in the case of Odessa and also given to Ukraine as a gift by Russia.

When you gift something, you no longer own it.

Do you believe countries gift areas without tethering them onto themselves Saeko? Or do you believe that Russia must accept NATO into cities its people live and which it has gifted to what it has been a Russian nation?

Yes.