Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 632 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By litwin
#15277568
JohnRawls wrote:Decolonisation as you put it is unlikely besides may be Dagestan or Chechnya. The reason for that is simple, those parts of Russia that are currently in Russia get far more even now compared to what they would be out of Russia. Even if they gain independence they are still land locked by Russia with well no other partner around.

So the dessolution of Russia is a pipe dream that needs things to get like starvation WW3 level bad to happen. Plus nobody really in the world is interested in it, be it US or EU or China who have an inherent "need" for Russia to be whole but not barbaric or dangerous .


this what many moscow loving said in 80s about Baltics , Ukraine etc. and out of 15 states the only one which bacame "barbaric AND dangerous" -MOSCOW empire.

land locked by Moscow empire ,

much like Mongolia (which does just fine) ? so why Buriatia , Tyva (occupied only in 1944) , Ural Republic, Sakha (is not landlocked ) etc. can´t follow the Mongol State lead?




map from 1918

Image
a good read

https://inkstickmedia.com/dismantling-r ... at-a-time/
#15277574
skinster wrote:Weird claim for someone at the helm of the state that fought and lost the most when defeating the Nazis in World War Two.

Churchill and co had a bit of a different take on Stalin too. The former apparently would refer to him as "Stalin the Great"

Stalin made no attempt to micromanage the battles fought by the Soviet Army, unlike Hitler and, yes, even Putin on occasion. Stalin simply made sure that he was surrounded by the best military minds available (even releasing them from the Gulag if necessary, for example Rokossovsky), and then let them get on with it. Hitler could never resist the urge to interfere and micromanage his generals, usually with disastrous results, especially towards the end of the War. As I said, Hitler was ruined by the Wehrmacht’s unexpected victories in 1940, and started thinking he was a worthy successor to Alexander the Great or Napoleon Bonaparte, with predictably disastrous results. Stalin, by contrast, had been chastened by his poor performance during the Civil War, and generally didn’t interfere with military operations. The fact that Stalin had an impressive personal gravitas and charisma doesn’t change that reality, @skinster.
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By litwin
#15277579
Szabo wrote:The russians have resorted to using suicide tanks by filling old soviet era tanks with explosives to detonate upon reaching Ukrainian positions.

Thankfully our boys were able to destroy one right in the nick of time but the ensuing explosion is one of the largest to be seen since the start of the war.




guys some numbers, any comment on this ? "Moscow reserves amount to under $150 Billion, which will be burnt up by the end of the year. "

Russian Economy update: 20 June 2023 In the period January to May 2023, the Russian budget deficit has exploded out to $42 Billion, taking the total deficit since the war began, to $82 Billion. Russia released the headline figures, after they tried to convince the world they had a surplus in May 2023. This means the economy is now reliant on it’s reserves, and they have now burnt through more than half the $150 Billion they had in reserves in February 2022. Russia relies primarily on Oil and Gas for it’s income. They reported in April that revenues from oil and gas had fallen by 64% year on year. The subsidies the government paid to oil and gas companies and refineries and oil reverse excise tax, doubled from 38 Billion Rubles to 79 Billion Rubles in April 2023. The dampening mechanism subsidy to oil refineries increased to an eye watering, 107 Billion Rubles from 97 Billion Rubles in March 2023. (These subsidies were introduced to counter the EU and G& bans on crude and refined oil in December 2022 and February 2023 respectively). Russia has been compelled to subsidise the products to encourage sales and keep the refineries and oil wells open. Figures which have been chosen and quite likely manipulated for release are found on the Russian Ministry of Finance website - they have produced an excel spreadsheet detailing what they claim are figures to date. In May 2023 Russia had a turnover of 2.9 Trillion in May 2023, compared with $5.7 Trillion in May 2022, a fall of 49% for the month of May. The accumulated total sales for the year is 8.1 Trillion Jan - May 2023, compared with $16 Trillion for the same period in 2022, a reduction in income of 49%. Looking at the non oil and gas revenues for the year, in April 2023 this amounted to $5.5 Trillion Rubles, compared with 5.2 Trillion in April 2022 (a 5% increase). In May 2023 it was 7 Trillion Rubles, compared with 6.5 Trillion in 2022 (representing a 9% increase on the same Eric’s last year). The accumulated total for the first 5 months of 2023, the turnover was 19.7 Trillion Rubles compared to 19.6 Trillion in 2022 (an increase of 1%). Analysing the income, the assumption that the economy is not doing to bad, as a small increase has been realised in the non-oil and gas revenues - is wrong. This is because the russian economy is reliant on Oil and Gas to sustain the economy. Before the illegal invasion, Oil and Gas made up over 60% of all Russian income. The 49% fall in the primary income source is having a catastrophic impact, hence the current Russian budget deficit of $42 Billion USD, or 3.7 Trillion Rubles deficit, and that is in just the first 5 months. Back in December 2022, the indicted War Criminal boasted that sanctions were not impacting the Russian economy and the regime published a budget forecast for 2023 as a deficit of 2.3 Trillion Rubles for the whole of 2023. It has now exceeded that forecast by 60.8% and there is still 7 months to go in the budget period to the end of 2023. Last year, Russia’s total budget deficit amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles ($47 billion) — or 2.3% of its GDP — making it the second-largest deficit in modern Russian history. This year is going to the highest ever deficit recorded by Russia on record. At the current rate, Russia will have a deficit of over $100 Billion by the end of 2023. But the assumption that the current rate will not escalate is simply wrong! Given the escalating cost of the war for Russia, this conservative estimate is likely to be exceeded vastly by the end of 2023. Expenditure as a result of the murderous War in Ukraine for example: to April 2023, rocketed 26% to 11.2 trillion rubles compared to the same time last year. At the low end of estimates expenditure will surpass 50 Trillion Rubles by the year end. The current Russian reserves amount to under $150 Billion, which will be burnt up by the end of the year.

#15277592
@Szabo

Yeah, you know, I always hope that mankind would learn something from this mess in Ukraine. You know, you really see the importance of people treating each other with kindness and respect and how terrible war is. However, I also know that it is not an idealistic world we live in and there will always be somebody somewhere who will make unwise and terrible decisions that create conflict and war. But for me, I always hope that other people look at what goes on in places like Ukraine and other war zones and understand how important it is for humans to learn to live in peace and be better people.

That people work together to prevent violence and war and learn to love each other as people and fellow human beings. I always felt that way after Afghanistan. Do you kinda see my perspective given Ukraine's war? I mean, you have to defend your motherland, but on the same token, you can't help but hope that mankind learns a lesson that will help further peace in a positive way. I hope you understand what I mean. Things that are happening in Ukraine are tragic and terrible and are totally preventable and unnecessary and yet it seems the cycle repeats itself in other places of the globe.
#15277606
One of the greatest lessons that we should learn already from this war is that we need a 12-15km range shoulder launched manpad(upgrade of stinger?) along with a very cheap anti-drone weapon preferably not rocket based.
By late
#15277607
JohnRawls wrote:
One of the greatest lessons that we should learn already from this war is that we need a 12-15km range shoulder launched manpad(upgrade of stinger?) along with a very cheap anti-drone weapon preferably not rocket based.



Small calibre smg with a relatively long barrel?
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By litwin
#15277608
Potemkin wrote:[highlight ellow]Stalin made no attempt to micromanage the battles fought by the Soviet Army,[/highlight] unlike Hitler and, yes, even Putin on occasion. Stalin simply made sure that he was surrounded by the best military minds available (even releasing them from the Gulag if necessary, for example Rokossovsky), and then let them get on with it. Hitler could never resist the urge to interfere and micromanage his generals, usually with disastrous results, especially towards the end of the War. As I said, Hitler was ruined by the Wehrmacht’s unexpected victories in 1940, and started thinking he was a worthy successor to Alexander the Great or Napoleon Bonaparte, with predictably disastrous results. Stalin, by contrast, had been chastened by his poor performance during the Civil War, and generally didn’t interfere with military operations. The fact that Stalin had an impressive personal gravitas and charisma doesn’t change that reality, @skinster.


one of many RT.myths

In addition, the political games of Joseph Stalin, at the time the chief political commissar of the South-Western Front, further contributed to Yegorov's and Budyonny's disobedience.[7][20][21] Stalin, looking for personal glory, aimed to capture the besieged Lwów (Lviv), an important industrial center. Ultimately, Budyonny's forces marched on Lwów instead of Warsaw, and thus missed the battle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Warsaw_(1920)
#15277612
late wrote:Small calibre smg with a relatively long barrel?


Needs radar though and auto-aim of sorts. Could work depending on range.

Lasers are also a choice if it extends the range greatly.
#15277619
Does anyone see and end to this war in sight soon? It is turning out to be a long war. If that is the case it is going to influence EU policy for years.
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By litwin
#15277631
Do sanctions work? Yes they do. They can be even tighter though, even after the 11th package announced today. €21.5 Billion frozen Russian assets including Oligarch properties in the EU €300 Billion frozen of Russian Central Bank Assets frozen in the EU and G7 countries.


ps


Were the Hungarians out of the room at the time? :lol:





User avatar
By litwin
#15277632
Tainari88 wrote:Does anyone see and end to this war in sight soon? It is turning out to be a long war. If that is the case it is going to influence EU policy for years.


one more year max

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