[Rugoz]

1) "This year, noone" is my argument not yours or Gandalf's. Gandalf is openly arguing that Ukraine is winning ground. I showed you both that this is not the case and that in fact if someone measures land then:
2) According to NYT itself Russia has made more land gains than Ukraine this year on aggregate, but indeed not enough gains to call this "Russian gaining ground". Yet you are calling this as Ukraine gaining ground which is totally off the mark.

According to War Mapper, Ukraine made small ground since the beginning of the offensive. I don't see why ISW maps should be more reliable, and you only have a paywalled quote for the month of August.

[B0ycey]

There's a simple reason Ukraine is not moving forward. Russia is replenishing its attrited forces with reserves. That's not an assumption but an observable fact. Territorial gains are a delayed indicator in this war.

Attrition rates are not know to any of us, hence we cannot say who's winning with certainty. I have reason to believe they're favorable to Ukraine despite being on the "offensive".

The fact Russia can replenish their military with reservists and Ukraine has to basically snatch men of the street to fight for them is not favorable to Ukraine Rugoz. The counteroffensive is a failure and saying anything other than the obvious is a lie. Ukraine needs to set out actual objectives they can achieve today and then move on with intergrating itself within the EU and someone from the West should spell it out to them (not that I expect Ukraine to listen) to save lives. Sending weapons except air defence is counter productive right now because the Russian defence line is only going to get stronger over the stalemate winter months and whatever we send them will weakens our own defence and will eventually get destroyed for no gains whatsoever. Also, the people of Crimea and Donbass want to be Russian. We seem to care more about Albanian minority rights than Russian it seems.

[Rugoz]

They embarked on a systematic targeting of Russian artillery, which by all accounts, has been successful in degrading Russia's counter-battery capability in the sectors that really matter - especially the Robotyne sector. The salient that has been created here - and the subsequent breaching of the Surovokian line - could only have happened with this degradation of Russian artillery in this sector.

Ukraine should be able to achieve artillery superiority given the qualitative advantage of NATO artillery, but we shouldn't underestimate how long it will take to deplete those Soviet stockpiles. This war is like grinding down a fallen empire.

[Rugoz]

Sending weapons except air defence is counter productive right now because the Russian defence line is only going to get stronger over the stalemate winter months and whatever we send them will weakens our own defence and will eventually get destroyed for no gains whatsoever.

There are relatively few documented losses of Western equipment, and Russia sure likes to showcase them.

I would say Ukraine is putting it to good use.

Also, the people of Crimea and Donbass want to be Russian.

Unsubstantiated. It might have been true for a majority of Crimeans once. Not for Donbass. Given the destruction and depopulation caused by this war, I don't see the relevance anymore.

[noemon]

"Crimea once, Donbass, never."


Oh dear.

[B0ycey]

There are relatively few documented losses of Western equipment, and Russia sure likes to showcase them.

I would say Ukraine is putting it to good use.

There is no notable gains Rugoz and the vast majority of drones and missiles are getting shot down. You get one headline strike on Crimea every month or so, but it hasn't made a dent on the battlefield and would instead move opinion within Russian controlled territory in continuing and supporting the war.

Unsubstantiated. It might have been true for a majority of Crimeans once. Not for Donbass. Given the destruction and depopulation caused by this war, I don't see the relevance anymore.

Opinion in Crimea has always polled to be part of Russia not Ukraine let alone mention that since 2014, Kiev has never had full control of the Donbass. How have you reached this false conclusion as Ukraine has been is a state of civil war?

[Rugoz]

would instead move opinion within Russian controlled territory in continuing and supporting the war.

LoL, what? DPR/LPR forces are basically non-existent at this point. The population in the South is openly hostile, with active partisan warfare. Why do you think Russia has to systematically use torture on the civilian population in occupied territory (according to the UN)?

Opinion in Crimea has always polled to be part of Russia not Ukraine let alone mention that since 2014, Kiev has never had full control of the Donbass. How have you reached this false conclusion as Ukraine has been is a state of civil war?

Ukraine being in a state of civil war is nothing but Russian propaganda, and it's mindboggling to see people still fall for this dumb shit after everything that has happened. It's a Russian invasion and has been since 2014.

Crimean legislators were forced at gunpoint to do Russia's bidding (according to Girkin).

[B0ycey]

LoL, what? DPR/LPR forces are basically non-existent at this point. The population in the South is openly hostile, with active partisan warfare. Why do you think Russia has to systematically use torture on the civilian population in occupied territory (according to the UN)?

There only partizan warfare taking place is in and around Mariupol and the bare minimum the counter offensive was suppose to do was reach there to split Crimea from Russia. Ukraine couldn't even do despite it being friendly to them. Also I have never claimed that all of Russian territorial gains were justified nor do I justify torture. The DPR and LPR are also very much alive and fighting and most of the occupied territory is still pro Russian FYI.

Ukraine being in a state of civil war is nothing but Russian propaganda, and it's mindboggling to see people still fall for this dumb shit after everything that has happened. It's a Russian invasion and has been since 2014.

Crimean legislators were forced at gunpoint to do Russia's bidding (according to Girkin).

So whilst the rest of Ukraine was in uprising Crimea just did Russia bidding by gunpoint? And you think I swallow propaganda. Crimea has always been pro Russian. The Tatars refused to vote in the referendum and the result was 99% to be part of Russia. Plenty of reporters are going to Crimea and nobody is saying they want to return back to Ukraine FYI.

And yes, Ukraine has been in a civil war since 2014. If you can't even acknowledge that, then you really are a shill.

[Rugoz]

There only partizan warfare taking place is in and around Mariupol and the bare minimum the counter offensive was suppose to do was reach there to split Crimea from Russia. Ukraine couldn't even do despite it being friendly to them. Also I have never claimed that all of Russian territorial gains were justified nor do I justify torture. The DPR and LPR are also very much alive and fighting and most of the occupied territory is still pro Russian FYI.

Apparently the systematic use of torture is necessary with a "friendly population".

A Russian occupier said 70% of the people there absolutely hate them.

Anecdotal, of course, but not surprising given that 99% in the South had no desire whatsoever to leave Ukraine or join Russia.

The DPR, LPR forces are non-existent at this point.

So whilst the rest of Ukraine was in uprising Crimea just did Russia bidding by gunpoint? And you think I swallow propaganda.

The Crimean legislators, according to Igor Girkin. The guy is an asshole and war criminal but at least not a bullshitting Kremlin stooge.

And yes, Ukraine has been in a civil war since 2014. If you can't even acknowledge that, then you really are a shill.

Yeah, I'm a shill for a intelligence and facts, not retarded Kremlin propaganda. Go figure.

[B0ycey]

Apparently the systematic use of torture is necessary with a "friendly population".

Is all the population tortured and in prison in your opinion?

A Russian occupier said 70% of the people there absolutely hate them.

Anecdotal, of course, but not surprising given that 99% in the South had no desire whatsoever to leave Ukraine or join Russia.

It certainly is anecdotal if you haven't even provided a name to backup the assertion. Although I do find it strange that partizan warfare is centred around Mariupol and not the South given you earlier claimed that it was there the uprising currently is. Also, why is Russia able to control the population in occupied territory according to you BTW? They weren't able to control them at the start of the war when they headed for Kiev. And yet today they are.

The DPR, LPR forces are non-existent at this point.

I can't even take you seriously at this point if you think this. Perhaps that is why you think Russia conscripting new recruits is on equal merit to Ukraine kidnapping people off the street in terms of who has the upper hand.

The Crimean legislators, according to Igor Girkin. The guy is an asshole and war criminal but at least not a bullshitting Kremlin stooge.

Nobody claimed that Girkin didn't take control of the Crimean parliament. What I said is that Crimea wasn't (and isn't) being controlled by gunpoint.

Yeah, I'm a shill for a intelligence and facts, not retarded Kremlin propaganda. Go figure.

You're shilling propaganda. Perhaps a stooge would be more fitting actually.

[skinster]

@Potemkin, what information are you basing your view on Russia's navy?

At which point exactly do the warmongers call it quits? At some point, questions about your own motives will be rationally made.

Mental, aren't they? I seriously wonder if they are just out-and-out liars or just access incorrect media. They don't seem to share any sources so it's hard to tell. Some of them I give the benefit of the doubt but others are straight-up liars who have a history of shilling for past imperialist wars too.

Donbass.

This was a very good episode explaining all you need to know about this region.

Apparently the systematic use of torture is necessary with a "friendly population".

Do you have any evidence for this claim of systemic torture or torture otherwise that Russia is inflicting on the people of Donbass where over 70% of the population voted to be a part of the Russian Federation almost exactly a year ago?

LoL, what? DPR/LPR forces are basically non-existent at this point.

Liar. An American journalist spoke to one of their commanders recently.

Ukraine being in a state of civil war is nothing but Russian propaganda, and it's mindboggling to see people still fall for this dumb shit after everything that has happened. It's a Russian invasion and has been since 2014.

Incorrect again! The civil war did begin in 2014 and you can learn more about that in the video with the Donbass commander above. If there was no war, how to explain 14,000 killed in Donbass since 2014? And if Russia invaded in 2014, how come the Western corporate media is claiming they started the war or invaded last February? I mean, come on, even your own crappy side doesn't make the claim the Russians entered in 2014. They tried to have us all believe the war began last February. And a lot of retards believed that. Your side only began admitting the war began in 2014 after you could no longer lie your way out of the claim that Russia started the war last year..

Crimean legislators were forced at gunpoint to do Russia's bidding (according to Girkin).

Citation needed.

[Rugoz]

Is all the population tortured and in prison in your opinion?

Russia invades, destroys entire cities, killed tens of thousands and tortures the civilian population, yet you believe the people there are pro-Russian?

The funny thing is. We have these surveys from before the war showing barely any support for secession or joining Russia, yet they don't even ask the relevant question. Namely, do you want Russia to wage an incredibly destructive war to annex your region?

Some people here actually think the answer to that would be "yes, please".

It certainly is anecdotal if you haven't even provided a name to backup the assertion. Although I do find it strange that partizan warfare is centred around Mariupol and not the South given you earlier claimed that it was there the uprising currently is. Also, why is Russia able to control the population in occupied territory according to you BTW? They weren't able to control them at the start of the war when they headed for Kiev. And yet today they are.

It wasn't the civilian population that defeated the Russian army in Kiev.

P.S. the 70% figure comes from an interview with a Russian posted on Twitter, unfortunately I have no clue how to find it.

I can't even take you seriously at this point if you think this.

I follow this conflict closely and haven't heard of the DPR/LPR forces being involved in any relevant fighting for almost a year or so. Of course they still exist on paper (as part of the Russian armed forces), but they have been mostly spent. E.g.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... r-wounded/

[skinster]

Russia invades, destroys entire cities, killed tens of thousands and tortures the civilian population, yet you believe the people there are pro-Russian?

The funny thing is. We have these surveys from before the war showing barely any support for secession or joining Russia, yet they don't even ask the relevant question. Namely, do you want Russia to wage an incredibly destructive war to annex your region?

Some people here actually think the answer to that would be "yes, please".

Repeating your lies don't make them true.

I follow this conflict closely and haven't heard of the DPR/LPR forces being involved in any relevant fighting for almost a year or so.

From 2 months ago

[Sandzak]

There are reports in Serbian media about Britains direct military intervention in Ukraine.

We are moving closer to Armageddon.

[noemon]

Sorry, but this looks like fake news. It seems doctored, or the DT changed the headline.
Edit: Right, this appears to be the case, that DT changed the headline indeed.
Shapps is looking to move military production in Ukraine and send the Navy in the Black Sea.


The full DT article is here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... o-ukraine/

Grant Shapps to ramp up support for Volodymyr Zelensky
UK to boost training for Ukrainian soldiers and Navy may help protect grain vessels

By
Edward Malnick,
SUNDAY POLITICAL EDITOR
30 September 2023 • 9:00pm
Grant Shapps, pictured at Salisbury plain, said Britain was finding ways to help Ukraine ‘shape up’ for Nato membership CREDIT: Paul Grover for The Telegraph
Britain will ramp up its training programme for Ukrainian soldiers under plans being discussed with military chiefs, the new Defence Secretary has disclosed.

In an interview with The Telegraph, Grant Shapps said that he had held talks with Army leaders about moving “more training and production” of military equipment into Ukraine. He also called on more British defence firms to set up factories in Ukraine.

Following a trip to Kyiv last week, Mr Shapps also reveals that he has talked to Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, about how Britain’s Navy could play a role in defending commercial vessels from Russian attacks in the Black Sea.

Both moves would mark a significant escalation in the UK’s involvement in defending Ukraine against Vladimir Putin’s onslaught. Speaking in his first newspaper interview as Defence Secretary, Mr Shapps also:

Suggested Britain should reprise Liz Truss’s pledge to increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, as he said he viewed the
Insisted that migrants who settle in the UK should learn English and “be a productive part of society”, as he weighed in behind Suella Braverman in a row over the Home Secretary’s comments on multiculturalism;
Said it would be “pretty much irresponsible” not to reconsider plans for the HS2 rail line in light of the costs of Covid and the war in Ukraine.

As part of the British-led Operation Interflex, more than 20,000 recruits from the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already received training in the UK since the start of 2022, learning battle skills on bases such as Salisbury Plain, which Mr Shapps visited on Friday.

Nato members including the UK have avoided carrying out formal training programmes in Ukraine, owing to the risk of personnel being drawn into combat with Russia. Last year, Russia apparently struck a base holding foreign fighters with about 30 missiles.


However, following a briefing with General Sir Patrick Sanders, the Chief of the General Staff, and other senior personnel at Salisbury Plain, Mr Shapps said: “I was talking today about eventually getting the training brought closer and actually into Ukraine as well.”

He added: “Particularly in the west of the country, I think the opportunity now is to bring more things ‘in country’, and not just training but also we’re seeing BAE [the UK defence firm], for example, move into manufacturing in country, for example.

“I’m keen to see other British companies do their bit as well by doing the same thing. So I think there will be a move to get more training and production in the country.”

Separately, having assured Mr Zelensky on Wednesday that the UK “will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine”, Mr Shapps suggested that Britain was preparing to play a more active role helping the country to defend itself against attacks in the Black Sea, where Russia has been increasingly targeting cargo ships carrying grain.

Mr Shapps, who replaced Ben Wallace as Defence Secretary in a mini-reshuffle carried out a month ago, said: “We’ve seen in the last month or so, developments, really the first since 2014 in the Black Sea, in Crimea, and Britain is a naval nation so we can help and we can advise, particularly since the water is international water.

“It’s important that we don’t allow a situation to establish by default that somehow international shipping isn’t allowed in that water. So I think there’s a lot of places where Britain can help advise. [I] did discuss it with President Zelensky and many others this week.”


Offering naval support in the Black Sea would escalate the UK’s involvement in the conflict.

The Defence Secretary’s remarks appear to mark a shift in the Government’s approach to publicly discussing stepping up military involvement in Ukraine – a move that was mirrored by France yesterday when the French military revealed that its aircraft were carrying out surveillance over the Black Sea.

It has previously been claimed that up to 50 British personnel were among Western special forces present in Ukraine earlier this year – a matter that the Government would never discuss publicly.

During a short-lived leadership campaign last summer Mr Shapps said the UK must raise defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP from its current level of just above 2 per cent. The higher target was adopted by Ms Truss but then scrapped when Jeremy Hunt became Chancellor in October 2022, in favour of a 2.5 per cent ambition.

Asked if he still wanted to reach a target of 3 per cent, Mr Shapps said: “I think it’s important that we understand that freedom isn’t free. You have to pay for it and it also keeps us prosperous.”

[skinster]

^

[noemon]

Sunak collects the pieces:

Rishi Sunak insists that the defence secretary's suggestion that British troops could train forces in Ukraine is not for the "here and now" during the war against the Russian invasion. The prime minister rules out UK forces going to Ukraine and says that the recently appointed Grant Shapps was discussing possible plans for the "long term".

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rishi-sunak-n ... ccounter=1

[Negotiator]

I dont get these discussions about Ukraine joining the EU.

They will never actually do that, for the very same reason why for example Turkey hasnt joined the EU since decades (they always wanted to join), only even much more so.

Ukraines economy was already really bad before the invasion, and is now so run down all the countries who currently receive money (such as Poland and Hungary) would suddenly have to pay instead, and those who already pay would have to pay even more.

Not gonna happen. Obviously.

[B0ycey]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rishi-sunak-n ... ccounter=1

The UK do like their long term plans it seems.

I wonder if Shapps spoke to the military before discussing this (nope!). It should be obvious to anyone of sound mind Russia would target any training in Ukraine from military personnel outside of Kiev. I Suspect When Shapps spoke to Zelensky for what he needed last week, I guess he said training inside Ukraine knowing what it could mean and the just like any typical Tory, Shapps clearly didn't think twice about it. Need to get these Tory clowns out of Westminster. Sunak seems to have a brain cell to quickly quash this. The rest, I do wonder.

[Rancid]

There are reports in Serbian media about Britains direct military intervention in Ukraine.

Doubtful, but claims like this have been casually thrown around for the last year or two.... easy to say things like this. When it doesn't happen, the people that say this conveniently forget they claimed it.