[Rugoz]

That is your opinion Rugoz. Do we ever agree? My opinion is the charges are specifically to stop him running actually. I can't prove it. But if he does drop out and the charges are dropped, I will be more confident in my opinion.

Hell will freeze over before that happens, but if it does happen, I believe you.

[Dimetrodon]

Of all the conducts from previous presidents, what makes Trump stand out right now? Trump isn't invincible. He is already going to court, you think this is coincidence? The establishment doesn't like him so they will disqualify him and it will be good for America if they do. I doubt anyone wants to sentence him but they will if they have to. And no he won't be in prison. They just need to enact the 14th amendment. He will be under house arrest.

We have never been more polarized since the American Civil War, that's what makes this different. When Nixon was outed, he lost the support of even the Republican party. Trump however still enjoys the support of the party and base, since we no longer share facts anymore.

The GOP wants to give Trump as many pardons as they can muster; the Democrats were not committed to holding Trump accountable until he made it clear that he won't shut his mouth.

And why should I think the right-wing SCOTUS will enforce the 14th Amendment? They're mainly his appointees. The only thing they never did was outright declare the 2020 election results invalid, but that's not a high bar.

[B0ycey]

We have never been more polarized since the American Civil War, that's what makes this different. When Nixon was outed, he lost the support of even the Republican party. Trump however still enjoys the support of the party and base, since we no longer share facts anymore.

The GOP wants to give Trump as many pardons as they can muster; the Democrats were not committed to holding Trump accountable until he made it clear that he won't shut his mouth.

And why should I think the right-wing SCOTUS will enforce the 14th Amendment? They're mainly his appointees. The only thing they never did was outright declare the 2020 election results invalid, but that's not a high bar.

Perhaps it is because Trump enjoys the support of the party and base that Nixon was able to resign and Trump has charges against him maybe? Also, the SCOTUS will play ball if Trump is convicted in Georgia I would have thought. There is loyalty and there is loyalty to the state. But in any case, I'm really only going by what my gut says. If everyone thinks Trump is going to be the nominee then OK, let's see.

[QatzelOk]

Russia wants to restore the pre-Soviet Russian Empire's borders.

NATO has never stopped expanding, has it.

So it must be "the other guy" who is insatiable and empire-seeking, right mirror?

[Dimetrodon]

NATO has never stopped expanding, has it.

So it must be "the other guy" who is insatiable and empire-seeking, right mirror?

NATO's actions does not make my statement false.

[Rancid]

We have never been more polarized since the American Civil War, that's what makes this different. When Nixon was outed, he lost the support of even the Republican party. Trump however still enjoys the support of the party and base, since we no longer share facts anymore.

The GOP wants to give Trump as many pardons as they can muster; the Democrats were not committed to holding Trump accountable until he made it clear that he won't shut his mouth.

And why should I think the right-wing SCOTUS will enforce the 14th Amendment? They're mainly his appointees. The only thing they never did was outright declare the 2020 election results invalid, but that's not a high bar.

Indeed. The 14th amendment doesn't matter. Laws don't matter.

Trump will run.

[annatar1914]

Indeed. The 14th amendment doesn't matter. Laws don't matter.

Trump will run.

@Rancid

We're coming out of the Modern Age, which began in 1492 AD.

The World is more and more conforming to patterns that resemble those before 1492 than those after. Lots of political adventurers and revisionists, enjoy the ride

[Sandzak]

I wrote in this thread +/- 1 year ago, Ukraine should make peace before a Republican is in the White House.

This means for Ukraine to give some territory away. For Republicans is Russia just for Europe a danger but not for the US.

[B0ycey]

I wrote in this thread +/- 1 year ago, Ukraine should make peace before a Republican is in the White House.

This means for Ukraine to give some territory away. For Republicans is Russia just for Europe a danger but not for the US.

Most people understand this but Zelensky himself. I hope he sees sense some point in the Winter. If not, he will get caught with his pants by his ankles.

[Rugoz]

Most people understand this but Zelensky himself. I hope he sees sense some point in the Winter. If not, he will get caught with his pants by his ankles.

The idea that this is somehow Zelensky's decision against everyone else in the country is more dimwitted propaganda. Congrats.

[B0ycey]

The idea that this is somehow Zelensky's decision against everyone else in the country is more dimwitted propaganda. Congrats.

He is the leader Rugoz. He is suppose to make the difficult decisions. Not that I think everyone is against concessions in territory for long term security in Ukraine. But in any case, it seems the West is running out of ammo to give to Ukraine whilst Russia has maneuvered their economy to a war-time economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66984944

At this moment in time Zelensky should just get what he can whilst he can. If we are discussing this in a year time, then Ukraine is lost. So really the West needs to decide whether they want Russia to have their current territory gains or the whole of Ukraine actually.

[Rugoz]

He is the leader Rugoz. He is suppose to make the difficult decisions.

No, certainly not by himself.

Not that I think everyone is against concessions in territory for long term security in Ukraine.

"long term security" without long term dependence on Western military aid means NATO membership. Apparently you believe Zelensky can just call Putin at any moment and make him agree to that.

But in any case, it seems the West is running out of ammo to give to Ukraine whilst Russia has maneuvered their economy to a war-time economy.

Militaries don't run of ammo. They ration it. Ukraine may be forced to do so, in fact it already is, since it would like to fire much more no doubt, but the same is true for Russia. Russia makes a lot of claims about its "war-time economy", believe it at your own peril.

At this moment in time Zelensky should just get what he can whilst he can. If we are discussing this in a year time, then Ukraine is lost. So really the West needs to decide whether they want Russia to have their current territory gains or the whole of Ukraine actually.

Blah blah blah. People are so fickle. Some pro-Russian guy in tiny Slovakia wins 23% of the votes, and people automatically assume this will spell doom for Ukraine. Not even a coalition has been formed.

Meanwhile in the US we have the usual shutdown drama. I can see the US cutting back on financial/humanitarian aid, but the weapons will keep flowing, because it's too juicy.

[Negotiator]

We have never been more polarized since the American Civil War, that's what makes this different. When Nixon was outed, he lost the support of even the Republican party. Trump however still enjoys the support of the party and base, since we no longer share facts anymore.

Wtf "share facts" ?

Do you actually believe theres only two groups of people in the USA ?

Heres what INDEPENDENTS see:


Trump is the by far most investigated person in the USA.

They found diddly squat.

They caught Clinton inventing Russiagate, i.e. the idea that Trump would somehow be controlled or whatever by Russia. And yet theres still many democrats out there who still believe in Russiagate.

Now they started FOUR investigations, one more absurd than the other, all conveniently placed at the time when Trump would be running for president.



Meanwhile Democrats turn an extremely blind eye to the obvious corruption of Joe Biden, too.

Meanwhile RFK jr already had his first assassination attempt. While Joe Biden refuses to give RFK jr protection, like any other presidential candidate would get it. And the democrats are sabotaging RFK jr the same way they sabotaged Bernie Sanders in 2016.



You plain dont HAVE any facts to impress independents, let alone republicans, enough to believe that Trump is guilty.

There is no problem with sharing. There is a problem with idiocy. You complain that everybody else isnt brainwashed.

[B0ycey]

@Rugoz, I actually provided the link explaining the West are running out of ammo to provide. It gives you the reason which is the West never invested to fill up their own inventory so now they are seeing the bottom of the barrel. Don't blame me for your ignorance.

As for Zelensky, he is the leader, he makes the calls. He can ask for advice, but ultimately any decision made is his and his alone.

As for Russia being in a wartime economy and have organised well by replenishing their own stockpiles, the data has come from Western analysts which again is said to some extent in the article I have provided.

As for Putin agreeing to something, he has repeated said he will negotiate. It is Zelensky who refuses to talk as his 'peace plan' is dependent on Russian withdrawal first. As long as Russia is able to fulfil most of their aims for the 'Special Military operation', along with the recognition of their territorial gains, they will let Keiv stand. It would then be up to the West to fortify the line and build up their air defence to deter Russia from attacking. As long as Ukraine can be fortified securely before Russia can replenish their army for another offensive, Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO to get their security guarantees.

And no, it isn't Slovakia Zelensky should worry about. It is the US. They hold no cards in negotiations if the Republicans win the presidency. Which is why they should negotiate now.

[Rugoz]

@Rugoz, I actually provided the link explaining the West are running out of ammo to provide. It gives you the reason which is the West never invested to fill up their own inventory so now they are seeing the bottom of the barrel. Don't blame me for your ignorance.

"my ignorance", lol.

In 2024 the US and Europe will ramp up production to ~2m shells a year, combined.

It doesn't make sense to look at shell numbers in isolation anyway, since barrels have a limited lifetime. For ~2m shells you need about 1000 barrels.

I'm pretty sure Russia can produce enough shells, or get them from NK if necessary. The limiting factor is systems/barrels, where Russia relies on its stockpiles.

As for Zelensky, he is the leader, he makes the calls. He can ask for advice, but ultimately any decision made is his and his alone.

Last time I checked Ukraine has a parliament.

As for Putin agreeing to something, he has repeated said he will negotiate. It is Zelensky who refuses to talk as his 'peace plan' is dependent on Russian withdrawal first. As long as Russia is able to fulfil most of their aims for the 'Special Military operation', along with the recognition of their territorial gains, they will let Keiv stand. It would then be up to the West to fortify the line and build up their air defence to deter Russia from attacking. As long as Ukraine can be fortified securely before Russia can replenish their army for another offensive, Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO to get their security guarantees.

Again. "Fortifying the line" requires Western military aid, for years to come. The West literally has to keep Ukraine "on par" with Russia*.

Again, again. Ukraine can do that without Russian approval or recognizing annexed territory. The only thing Ukraine would potentially gain from a "peace plan" is the stop of Russian air attacks.

*To be fair, NATO could supply the Ukrainian military in case of another attack. In that sense the "build-up" could be part of NATO spending. Basically, Ukraine would have to be prepared to absorb a lot of NATO equipment quickly.

[B0ycey]

@Rugoz, yes you are ignorant as I have provided a link and you spout your opinion back ignoring what it says. And no, Zelensky is the leader so he makes the decisions. He might need to ratify a peace deal, but if we got that far then I suspect it would be easier to pass than you think.

But in any case, whilst we are giving out opinions, let me give you mine. Next year I predict more US shutdowns, less pledges of military aid fullstop, more focus on replenishing national stockpiles, a stronger fortified line during the winter by Russia that is primary focused on air defence for the F16 donations, Ukraine to lose even more territory, a Republican and Labour victory, US pulling military aid completely, Europe being let down, everyone jumping ship and Ukraine left alone. And by 2025 I see Ukraine falling and plenty of head scratching wondering how we got to the point where Russia is now at the border of Poland and the focus will be fortifying their line rather than Ukraines. And because I predict all that, I would suggest it is more important for the West to focus on their own security and spell out the truth to Zelensky and tell him to negotiate and stop saying they are behind him for as long as it takes, which is a lie that is keeping him fighting.

[Negotiator]

First of all, Zelensky isnt actually the leader. Only officially. He's clearly not the one actually making the descisions though.

Remember, he started on a peace plattform and wanted to implement Minsc II. And for a year, he tried. Then suddenly he makes a 180 degree turn and did the same as his predecessor, and turned extremely aggressive against Russia.



And the only peace deal that Zelensky would ratify would be the one he proposes:

- Russia removes all troups from former ukrainian territory, including Crimea

- Russia pays reparations

- Russia gives various leading politicians so they can be tried for war crimes

No other deal would stand any chance.

Zelensky knows better than to sign anything else. His nazis would murder him. Zelensky is already jew and already an ethnic russian; they have no reason to give him special treatment.



And since, surprise, surprise, any of these points would be completely unacceptable to Russia, there wont be a peace deal.

The russians will have to end this war and dictate terms. Which apparently are now extremely simplified to "Ukraine will return to mother Russia", if you follow recent statements of russian politicians on TASS.

https://tass.com/world/1679849

Other russian politicians have made likewise statements, though less direct. Lavrov for example merely said the longer Ukraine waits with negotiations, the worse the terms will be for them. Which is what the pattern in russian negotiations is, if you follow Minsc I, Minsc II, and the results of the negotiations after the start of the war.

[B0ycey]

@Negotiator, there seems to be this notion on here that someone is pulling the strings for Zelensky. The only possible string puller is the US who are now at the mercy of Republican hardliners in the house. Zelensky has never acted as if someone is making the decisions for him. But people can believe what they like. It really doesn't matter in terms of this conflict. And yes Lavrov is right, the longer the conflict is, the worse the terms for Ukraine. Putin doesn't have to concede anything once US support goes.

[Rugoz]

@Rugoz, yes you are ignorant as I have provided a link and you spout your opinion back ignoring what it says.

My opinion is not an opinion and it doesn't contradict the article. Current production is a few ten thousand a month. That's not enough, at least not to keep Ukraine on the offensive. Hence the ramp up in production. It was announced months ago, but capacity won't be reached until well into 2024.

Is it a problem? Yes, and Europe should have developed these plans much earlier. Is it a disaster? Nope, but it will limit Ukraine's offensive early next year, unless a solution is found (e.g. those millions of shells SK has).

And no, Zelensky is the leader so he makes the decisions. He might need to ratify a peace deal, but if we got that far then I suspect it would be easier to pass than you think.

If "we get that far", yes, but not now.

[B0ycey]

My opinion is not an opinion and it doesn't contradict the article. Current production is a few ten thousand a month. That's not enough, at least not to keep Ukraine on the offensive. Hence the ramp up in production. It was announced months ago, but capacity won't be reached until well into 2024.

You said militaries don't run out of ammo and you made out that Ukraine will be fully aided for as long as it takes. Now you say production won't be ramped up until 2024? I am not going to focus on this clear moving of deckchairs and actually focus on what you are implying with this quote. Ukraine cannot wait until 2024 because of the US election. And without the ammo, their offensive will turn into a defensive. And what is worse for Ukraine, is the US might not be able to send any more aid in a couple of months and the next house speaker might not even be sympathetic to Ukraine anyway. The US as we speak is at the mercy of Republican hardliners. We can ignore this obvious truth or work out the best solution moving forward. There is also going to be a focus on our own defence and our own stockpiles because clearly if Keiv falls we need to be ready. And the idea of Keiv falling isn't far fetched. As I have said, Zelensky has to negotiate. He has perhaps until the spring to do this. If we are still talking about this next year, the realistic outcome is Russia bordering Poland by 2026. So for that reason alone, it is about time the West stops pandering to Zelensky and explain to him what is realistically possible for him to achieve.