[Skynet]

Other.

There will not be a WW3.

West Asia/Middle East will escalate, which opens a window for opportunity for China, now or never to take Taiwan.
The CCP is just waiting 1 Year when elections take place in Taiwan, to see if a peacefull reunification is possible.

[wat0n]

So, it is as rich as most developed countries in terms of GDP per capita, but us not in the top ten or so?

How does this contradict my claim?

It isn't. China's per capita GDP is like Mexico's.

So your argument is pure speculation and may not happen at all.

It's already happening.

[Pants-of-dog]

It isn't. China's per capita GDP is like Mexico's.

You seem unable to contradict the claim.

It's already happening.

What is already happening?

Be specific. You will have to provide evidence later.

[wat0n]

You seem unable to contradict the claim.

Is Mexico rich?

What is already happening?

Be specific. You will have to provide evidence later.

1) Chinese growth is slowing

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY ... start=2000

2) There are countries that can compete against China for foreign investment and, consequently, foreign investment is falling

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insigh ... opolitics/

Neither is that surprising since China is now a middle income economy, but can China overcome the middle income trap?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

[Pants-of-dog]

Is Mexico rich?

1) Chinese growth is slowing

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY ... start=2000

This is irrelevant without also showing whether or not the economies of the west are also slowing and comparing them.

2) There are countries that can compete against China for foreign investment and, consequently, foreign investment is falling

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insigh ... opolitics/

If the reason is because Chinese manufacturing and other industries have become too expensive for investors looking for cheap labour in the developing world, this is actually a sign of improvement in Chinese economic areas.

Neither is that surprising since China is now a middle income economy, but can China overcome the middle income trap?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

You are arguing that it cannot.

Why do you think this is the case?

[wat0n]

This is irrelevant without also showing whether or not the economies of the west are also slowing and comparing them.

The West is richer, one would expect it to grow at a slower pace due to the law of diminishing returns.

If the reason is because Chinese manufacturing and other industries have become too expensive for investors looking for cheap labour in the developing world, this is actually a sign of improvement in Chinese economic areas.

It is, yet it is also an explanation why China's growth has been slowing down, and will likely keep doing so. Does it have any other growth engines?

You are arguing that it cannot.

Why do you think this is the case?

I don't know if it can't but there are already some signs that it might. The fact that real estate represents ~30% of China's GDP is quite concerning since there is consensus the sector is in crisis. This is much higher than the ~17% in the US or the ~12% in Japan.

Maybe China will figure out a new strategy to keep growing, the fact they're refusing a blanket bailout of their real estate sectors does suggest they want to move away from it.

But I don't think one can say China is currently "winning" the economic war. China has been playing catch-up, now that it is a middle income economy and the law of diminishing returns has begun to kick in, the real battle begins.

[Godstud]

@Sandzak Anyone who knows anything more than Western propaganda, knows that China will never invade Taiwan.

The world is not the Middle East. I am in Thailand and no one could give a fuck about Israeli or any country in that region.

[skinster]

^^


Also,



Back on topic:

The news is full of headlines about ‘China’s economic collapse’ — ignore them
Once again, the Western media Establishment, and sadly some on the left, are talking up an impending economic disaster in China, when the truth is quite the opposite, shows John Ross

IN THE last four years, covering the period of the Covid pandemic, China’s economy has grown two-and-a-half times as fast as the US, 15 times as fast as France, 23 times as fast as Japan, 45 times as fast as Germany, and 480 times as fast as Britain.

To add in smaller G7 countries, China has grown four times as fast as Canada, and 11 times as fast as Italy.

China’s outperformance of advanced capitalist countries is even greater in per capita terms — a still better measure of productivity changes and potential for increasing living standards.

China’s per capita GDP grew three times as fast as the US, five times as fast as Italy, 44 times as fast as Japan or France, and 260 times as fast as Britain — while per capita GDP fell in Germany and Canada.

China’s outperformance of developing capitalist countries shows the same pattern — China’s per capita 4.4 per cent GDP annual average growth compares to 2.6 per cent in India, 1.3 per cent in Brazil, or 0.9 per cent in South Africa.

What is important about such economic growth, of course, is not abstract statistics but its meaning for the real lives of ordinary people.

The International Labour Organisation data on real, inflation-adjusted, wages shows that up to the latest available data — for most countries to 2022, and for India to 2021 — China’s annual real wage growth was 4.7 per cent.

For Britain it was 0.1 per cent, for the US it was 0.3 per cent, in France it was minus 0.4 per cent, in Germany minus 0.7 per cent and in India minus 1.3 per cent.

Given this enormous economic outperformance by China of capitalist countries, any rational discussion that should be taking place in Western mainstream media about the international economic situation would be, “why is China’s economy hugely outperforming the US and the rest of the capitalist West?” and, “what lessons are to be learned from China’s socialist economy that is so outperforming the West?”

For the left, the issue that needs to be assessed and publicised is, “Why are real wages rising 18 times as fast in China as in the US, 44 times as fast as in Britain, while in France, Germany or India real wages are falling?”

Indeed, the present author would argue that much greater stress should be placed on the latter point. The international left has begun to absorb that China has lifted more than 850 million people out of World Bank-defined poverty in 40 years — by far the greatest poverty reduction achievement in human history.

But it has not yet internalised how rapidly not only the poorest but average living standards are rising in China — far faster than in any Western country.

But, of course, this real economic situation can’t be discussed in the mainstream media, because its conclusions would be too damaging for the capitalist West.

Instead, a type of mad discussion is unfolding, with US claims about China’s economy becoming increasingly bizarre — one might say deranged — as they get further and further out of touch with reality.

President Joe Biden, for example, recently made a speech claiming China’s economic growth rate is “around 2 per cent,” when it was 5.5 per cent in the first half of this year and, as already noted, China’s economy is growing two-and-a-half times as fast as the US.

Biden bizarrely claimed that in China “the number of people who are of retirement age is larger than the number of people of working age” — entirely false, and inaccurate by a figure of many hundreds of millions of people.

Discussion in the US financial media equally refuses to face real facts. Because I am an economist, every morning, after the overall news, I switch on Bloomberg TV to catch up on the latest economic data. Discussion there is like Alice Through the Looking Glass — the book the principle of which is that everything is reversed compared to the real world.

Apparently, according to Bloomberg’s analysis, China’s annual average of 4.5 per cent a year growth in the last four years is an economy in severe crisis, whereas the US’s 1.8 per cent is allegedly strong growth — not to speak of Britain’s 0.1 per cent. Similar rhetoric, out of all contact with factual reality, pervades the Financial Times, The Economist, or the Wall Street Journal.

The left is well used to such US political lying — the completely fake claim that North Vietnamese ships attacked US naval vessels on August 4 1964 in the Gulf of Tonkin, used to launch the Vietnam war, or the equally untrue claim that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction to justify the US invasion, were classic examples.

Today, the US systematically lies about the state of China and its own economy because it is crucial for US capitalism to prevent its own citizens, and close allies, from understanding the real economic trends.

It is further proof, if one were needed, of the truth that if the real world and a theory do not coincide only one of two things can be done. One is to abandon the theory, the other is to abandon the real world.

In this case, the theory is that the US, because it is capitalist, should outperform socialist China. The real world is actual economic performance — in which China continues to outperform the US and other capitalist countries by an enormous margin.

Unable to abandon its theory the US is therefore forced to abandon the real world — hence the demented denial of comparative economic performance noted at the beginning of this article.

While the left should expect lies from capitalism what is rather shameful is that some sections of the left repeat such nonsense — apparently believing that if they put in a few left phrases into an analysis taken from the Western press this constitutes “socialist” commentary.

For example, an article in the New Left Review’s Sidecar called China a “zombie economy.” Some “zombie” when China’s economy is growing anywhere between two-and-a-half times and 480 times as fast as any major capitalist economy.

The real data shows the reality is simple. China has far outgrown any Western capitalist economy for more than 40 years. It continues to do so.

The result in China is by far the world’s most rapid rise in living standards — not only for the poorest but for the whole average population. It is known as the practical advantage of socialism. It is fact. We know why the US has to make up big lies about it. There is no justification for sections of the left echoing them.
https://learningfromchina.net/the-news- ... nore-them/

[Pants-of-dog]

The West is richer, one would expect it to grow at a slower pace due to the law of diminishing returns.

I see.

As western countries develop economically, the speed at which their economy develops slows over time and this is normal and fine.

As China develops economically, any slowing down must be a death knell for its economy.

It is, yet it is also an explanation why China's growth has been slowing down, and will likely keep doing so. Does it have any other growth engines?

Other than manufacturing cheap goods for western markets? Yes.

I don't know if it can't but there are already some signs that it might. The fact that real estate represents ~30% of China's GDP is quite concerning since there is consensus the sector is in crisis. This is much higher than the ~17% in the US or the ~12% in Japan.

Maybe China will figure out a new strategy to keep growing, the fact they're refusing a blanket bailout of their real estate sectors does suggest they want to move away from it.

But I don't think one can say China is currently "winning" the economic war. China has been playing catch-up, now that it is a middle income economy and the law of diminishing returns has begun to kick in, the real battle begins.

China is far better poised to shift to more sustainable development, has a better space program, and is doing better at international relations than the west.

This seems more important than percentage of economy that is real estate.

[wat0n]

I see.

As western countries develop economically, the speed at which their economy develops slows over time and this is normal and fine.

As China develops economically, any slowing down must be a death knell for its economy.

I didn't say it's a death knell to its economy, it's a death knell to the idea that it can provide an alternative model to the West if it can't catch up.

In particular, if Chinese growth slows to the same rate as the West's, China won't be catching up. It needs to grow faster to be able to do so and actually win the economic world war.

If not, the Chinese example will be useful for poor countries but not middle income ones.

Other than manufacturing cheap goods for western markets? Yes.

Like? It's been moving away from producing cheap goods for Western markets to real estate, and that engine is now in trouble.

In principle, China should aim to develop a consumer-based economy that is driven by internal demand, but that's easier said than done.

China is far better poised to shift to more sustainable development, has a better space program, and is doing better at international relations than the west.

This seems more important than percentage of economy that is real estate.

30% is way too large, real estate definitely matters.

I also find it odd to say China is doing better at international relations than the West. Most of its immediate neighbors see themselves threatened by China, and because of that are looking for US protection. Like it or not, NATO doesn't have this kind of border disputes where it might be directly involved in a border war.

China is more skilled in other aspects, but its immediate neighborhood isn't one of them.

[Potemkin]

I also find it odd to say China is doing better at international relations than the West. Most of its immediate neighbors see themselves threatened by China, and because of that are looking for US protection. Like it or not, NATO doesn't have this kind of border disputes where it might be directly involved in a border war.

*cough*Ukraine*cough*

[wat0n]

*cough*Ukraine*cough*

Ukraine isn't a NATO member, and NATO isn't a belligerent. China is most definitely in a different situation.

In fact, it has relatively few allies in its immediate neighborhood.

[Godstud]

@skinster Leave a Bangkok college and you'll never hear anything about it.

The only thing people know is that Hamas Palestinians, killed 33 Thai people and 22 kidnapped. The Thai government has so far evacuated 7,282 people from Israel through 33 evacuation flights. Another flight is expected to arrive in Thailand on Friday.

Thailand was at least smart enough to send Muslim negotiators to attempt to get Hamas to release the hostages, but they are still worth keeping, I guess.

@wat0n China is not belligerent. That's a false narrative that Western propaganda sells. This is as false as the claims of Chinese aircraft entering Taiwanese airspace. It never happened.

[Pants-of-dog]

I didn't say it's a death knell to its economy, it's a death knell to the idea that it can provide an alternative model to the West if it can't catch up.

In particular, if Chinese growth slows to the same rate as the West's, China won't be catching up. It needs to grow faster to be able to do so and actually win the economic world war.

If not, the Chinese example will be useful for poor countries but not middle income ones.

You make the mistake of thinking that you get to decide what success is.

And you seem to be vague about that.

What exactly determines success in this context?

Like? It's been moving away from producing cheap goods for Western markets to real estate, and that engine is now in trouble.

In principle, China should aim to develop a consumer-based economy that is driven by internal demand, but that's easier said than done.

China seems to have done that and more.

30% is way too large, real estate definitely matters.

You often make pronouncements like this that are doubtful.

I also find it odd to say China is doing better at international relations than the West. Most of its immediate neighbors see themselves threatened by China, and because of that are looking for US protection. Like it or not, NATO doesn't have this kind of border disputes where it might be directly involved in a border war.

China is more skilled in other aspects, but its immediate neighborhood isn't one of them.

If we are comparing it to the USA, I would point out the toxic relationship that the USA has with its southern neighbours.

In fact, there is ongoing violence at (or near) the US southern border that is equal to the violence of a war.

[Godstud]

@wat0n When was the last time China had a war of aggression? 1945. Now compare that to USA... 2003.

Ok, now talk to me about Chinese belligerence towards Taiwan.

USA has the most godawful foreign policy in the world.

[Tainari88]

@Godstud wrote:

USA has the most godawful foreign policy in the world.

I second that emotion. USA foreign policy in the Middle East in a nutshell:

https://youtube.com/shorts/AdNcUvCTiy8? ... GI13WtCd0r

[wat0n]

You make the mistake of thinking that you get to decide what success is.

And you seem to be vague about that.

What exactly determines success in this context?

Catching up, in terms of per capita GDP, to the West.

China seems to have done that and more.

How so?

You often make pronouncements like this that are doubtful.

Really? China is clearly an outlier here, and even the CCP is realizing that dependence on real estate is a problem.

If we are comparing it to the USA, I would point out the toxic relationship that the USA has with its southern neighbours.

In fact, there is ongoing violence at (or near) the US southern border that is equal to the violence of a war.

Due to internal Mexican issues, not that Asia is all that peaceful. It depends a lot on the country.

Burma/Myanmar for example is a mess itself.

@Godstud many of China's neighbors strongly disagree, which is why they are aligning themselves with the US. This is not an example of a great foreign policy, and it's definitely a problem for China.

[Pants-of-dog]

Catching up, in terms of per capita GDP, to the West.

Why is per capita GDP the only criterion allowed?

Do Luxembourg, Singapore, Ireland, and Norway stand poised to be the next superpower?

How so?

Due to internal Mexican issues,

No. The US appetite for cocaine and undocumented labour is not an internal Mexican problem.

not that Asia is all that peaceful. It depends a lot on the country.

Burma/Myanmar for example is a mess itself.

Are they a mess because cartels are smuggling cocaine and sex slaves for Chinese markets?

If not, can you show how the violence is due to Chinese causes the way the Mexican cartel violence is due to US causes?

[wat0n]

Why is per capita GDP the only criterion allowed?

Do Luxembourg, Singapore, Ireland, and Norway stand poised to be the next superpower?

I thought we were discussing "winning the economic war", can you win the economic war if your economic system isn't a model to look up to?

I mean, if it's about sheer size only (due to population size, for instance) then the one that will eventually beat everyone is India, not China.

No. The US appetite for cocaine and undocumented labour is not an internal Mexican problem.

But the internal violence is.

Are they a mess because cartels are smuggling cocaine and sex slaves for Chinese markets?

If not, can you show how the violence is due to Chinese causes the way the Mexican cartel violence is due to US causes?

No, Burma/Myanmar isn't a mess because of drug smuggling (migration is more complicated here).

Now, even Mexico doesn't have significant border disputes with the US anymore...

[Fasces]

Most of its immediate neighbors see themselves threatened by China, and because of that are looking for US protection.

A huge oversimplification. The reality is they'll play up these fears, sign a deal with the US for free $$$$$, then turn around and sign deals sign deals with China anyway.

Even the biggest US ally in the region, Japan, steadfastedly refuses to kowtow to the US and say they'll defend Taiwan.

In terms of land neighbors, only India has continued border disputes with China as well - and if they truly felt threatened, those soldiers on the border would be equipped with more than sticks.