litwin wrote:YES, UNTIL 1991 N2
1991 N2 is unlikely. Russia is not Soviet Union so a Soviet Union collapse coming from cultural problems and exploding because of severe economic defficiencies is unlikely. Having said that, economic hardship is the future for Russia since they can't produce anything and investment/normal competitive sales are not possible under the current conditions besides may be raw materials. More or less the economy reblances itself while Russia has money left in the stabilisation fund. The stabilisation fund is shrinking but not as fast because all the decisions are basically made to put all the pain on everything besides that fund be it oligarchs, large/medium companies or the people. But this is a slow death by a thousand cuts and not a fast collapse like the Soviet Union. One can argue that Iran exists under same conditions for a long time now while having demostrations and "semi-uprisings" every couple of years or every 5 years on average.
We took away Russias ability to compete on anything besides raw resources or develop anything new at all. This also will severely reduce the military budget when the money ends. But it will probably not collapse Russia like 1991 since the economic group who is responsible for the economy is more or less competent under the conditions and they are distributing the pain away from the fund basically. Everything else is a casualty:
1) Long term development
2) Medium term development
3) Technological development
Basically Russia will stagnate or reverse in development but will be pretty stable by the looks of it, at least from the economic standpoint.
They will devalue the ruble to 100 and then 200 after the election and so on. If the people are willing to take it then they don't really care.