[litwin]

https://rumble.com/v3wr3t1-interview-war-isnt-over-even-if-you-want-it.html

Nice statement.

PersonallyI dont think they will ever stop putting sanctions on Russia.

YES, UNTIL 1991 N2

[JohnRawls]

YES, UNTIL 1991 N2

1991 N2 is unlikely. Russia is not Soviet Union so a Soviet Union collapse coming from cultural problems and exploding because of severe economic defficiencies is unlikely. Having said that, economic hardship is the future for Russia since they can't produce anything and investment/normal competitive sales are not possible under the current conditions besides may be raw materials. More or less the economy reblances itself while Russia has money left in the stabilisation fund. The stabilisation fund is shrinking but not as fast because all the decisions are basically made to put all the pain on everything besides that fund be it oligarchs, large/medium companies or the people. But this is a slow death by a thousand cuts and not a fast collapse like the Soviet Union. One can argue that Iran exists under same conditions for a long time now while having demostrations and "semi-uprisings" every couple of years or every 5 years on average.

We took away Russias ability to compete on anything besides raw resources or develop anything new at all. This also will severely reduce the military budget when the money ends. But it will probably not collapse Russia like 1991 since the economic group who is responsible for the economy is more or less competent under the conditions and they are distributing the pain away from the fund basically. Everything else is a casualty:
1) Long term development
2) Medium term development
3) Technological development
4) Companies
5) People
6) Oligarchs

Basically Russia will stagnate or reverse in development but will be pretty stable by the looks of it, at least from the economic standpoint.

They will devalue the ruble to 100 and then 200 after the election and so on. If the people are willing to take it then they don't really care.

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

[Negotiator]

[...] Having said that, economic hardship is the future for Russia since they can't produce anything [...]

Aha.

So if that was true, then how excactly would they be winning a war of attrition ?

Easily ?

Without breaking a sweat ?

Against the combined might of the five eyes and the european union ?

While even the world bank predicts a growth of the russian economy by 1.5% this year ?

Russia has tons of crude materials, great engineers, patriotic and tough soldiers (every bit as tough but now far more numerous and nowadays also far better trained as ukrainian ones), and no shortage of friendly nations. Thanks to the fact that the USA is now sanctioning more than half of mankind and, surprise, surprise, the effect is now that these countries of course increasingly trade with each other.

The only thing they are a bit short of is services.

I believe this constant mantra of Russias weakness while the facts dont support this tale at all is motivated by racism, plain and simple.

[JohnRawls]

Aha.

So if that was true, then how excactly would they be winning a war of attrition ?

Easily ?

Without breaking a sweat ?

Against the combined might of the five eyes and the european union ?

While even the world bank predicts a growth of the russian economy by 1.5% this year ?

Russia has tons of crude materials, great engineers, patriotic and tough soldiers (every bit as tough but now far more numerous and nowadays also far better trained as ukrainian ones), and no shortage of friendly nations. Thanks to the fact that the USA is now sanctioning more than half of mankind and, surprise, surprise, the effect is now that these countries of course increasingly trade with each other.

The only thing they are a bit short of is services.

I believe this constant mantra of Russias weakness while the facts dont support this tale at all is motivated by racism, plain and simple.

On old Soviet Stock for now. By buying ammo from North Korea and Iran. All those places are not super producers also. Russian growth is mostly increase of 20% in the Russian military industrial sector that it put on 24/7 hour production with different shifts. That sector uses mostly western manufacturing equipment and so on.

Having said that, that 1.5 growth is the military industrial complex while everything else is falling. You can't eat a tank or play games on a shell.

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

[litwin]

An army that relies on such people can’t be on solid ground, can it?

[litwin]

1991 N2 is unlikely. Russia is not Soviet Union so a Soviet Union collapse coming from cultural problems and exploding because of severe economic defficiencies is unlikely. Having said that, economic hardship is the future for Russia since they can't produce anything and investment/normal competitive sales are not possible under the current conditions besides may be raw materials. More or less the economy reblances itself while Russia has money left in the stabilisation fund. The stabilisation fund is shrinking but not as fast because all the decisions are basically made to put all the pain on everything besides that fund be it oligarchs, large/medium companies or the people. But this is a slow death by a thousand cuts and not a fast collapse like the Soviet Union. One can argue that Iran exists under same conditions for a long time now while having demostrations and "semi-uprisings" every couple of years or every 5 years on average.

We took away Russias ability to compete on anything besides raw resources or develop anything new at all. This also will severely reduce the military budget when the money ends. But it will probably not collapse Russia like 1991 since the economic group who is responsible for the economy is more or less competent under the conditions and they are distributing the pain away from the fund basically. Everything else is a casualty:
1) Long term development
2) Medium term development
3) Technological development
4) Companies
5) People
6) Oligarchs

Basically Russia will stagnate or reverse in development but will be pretty stable by the looks of it, at least from the economic standpoint.

They will devalue the ruble to 100 and then 200 after the election and so on. If the people are willing to take it then they don't really care.

one question, so the Mongol - Muscovites can live without Jihad ( territorial expansion ) ?
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2500544

Chinese academic Deng Xize : "No more Mongol-Muscovy style empire: Thoughts on the war in Ukraine, The global reaction to the war in Ukraine in fact shows that such empires will no longer be tolerated."​

The Mongol-Muscovy style empire could be defined as a dominating, rapacious empire upheld by violence, especially unruly violence, and exhibiting three prominent characteristics.


First, it uses unruly violence as a regular means of resolving international disputes. While violence is common and sometimes necessary in political or social governance, rules have been set for its use under a modern lawful democratic system. Unlike in ancient times, the use of violence now comes under heavy restrictions and is “predictable”. Such an evolution also applies to international relations.


But why is the Mongol-Muscovy empire more violent, more dominating and more rapacious than other politically similar ancient empires, such as the ancient Chinese empire?
https://www.thinkchina.sg/no-more-mongo ... ar-ukraine
ps


what do you think about these numbers ?

[litwin]

An army that relies on such people can’t be on solid ground, can it?

[litwin]

[Sandzak]

@litwin In one year is Trump in the white house, this means nothing good for Ukraine... smarter would be to make a peacedeal before Trump is back.

[Beren]

@litwin In one year is Trump in the white house, this means nothing good for Ukraine... smarter would be to make a peacedeal before Trump is back.

Trump's more likely to be in jail than in the White House in a year. If he's back, then Ukraine's fucked with or without a peace deal anyway.

[Potemkin]

Trump's more likely to be in jail than in the White House in a year. If he's back, then Ukraine's fucked with or without a peace deal anyway.

He could be both in a jail cell and in the White House. Hey, I wonder if they’ll force him to wear an orange jumpsuit and manacles while greeting foreign dignitaries in the Oval Office….