Beren wrote:Their economic woes, which afflict the elite as well, will make them supportive enough to a palace coup to trigger the elite to act sooner or later. I'd bet the next coup attempt to oust Putin will be successful.
Russia is sleep walking in to an economic disaster as it is. Most don't realise it yet. They are sacrificing everything to pump the industry even a bit but that is not going to help. Militarily it is a stalemate and won't change for Russia. It might change for Ukraine but not Russia. But all that is happening at the sacrifice of the economic growth even right now. Civilian industries are not growing and declining besides resource extraction and processing which are vague names for materials for the military and processing of materials in to military products which is value destruction.
Macroeconomy will fail first then the general economy close to follow.
Basically it played out that way. At the start I thought that it was the plan to not give Ukraine too much equipment for Russia to be mowed down without Russia wasting a lot more resources than it does now but that seems to be not the case actually. Regular political squables and slow build up caused that and now the numbers for our production are growing and will continue growing. Basically nobody took Russia seriously after their initial push failed and thought that they will just throw in the towel. Which they didn't.
Basically the overhype of Ukranian offensive number 3 which stalled and didn't do much besides killing more cannon fodder on the Russian side has brought the current state that Russia for some reason again is more confident. Long term this is actually not bad, since they are sleep walking forward without a way out while thinking that they do. And the aid is slowly increasing also from West and US, the only thing that makes it look like its worse are the political squables right now between Republicans and Democrats about the budget. In EU Orban is a bit of a problem but we already circumvented him.