Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 802 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15305774
Very useful video on the nonsense of the human wave attacks.



It seems it started with the Germans trying to explain away their defeats on the eastern front in World War 2. Three quarters of a century later the same drivel is being pedaled as expert military analysis.
#15305857
late wrote:That is called projection..


You really ought to get a grip on this matter. You, Rugoz, JohnRawls and couple of others you have strecthed the rope to such a degree on mental acrobatics that the rope has broken.

The region of Crimea:

1) is totally inhabited by ethnic-Russians both today and before the War.
2) thrice requested to secede from Ukraine in 1991, 1992 and 1994 and was only forced to stay in Ukraine because Russia made it.
3) was given to Ukraine as a gift under the 500 year anniversary of Ukraine-Russia as 'Eternally Together' on condition of this togetherness.
4) has already been recognised both by the west and by Ukraine as part of Russia under the Treaties of Minsk.
5) contains the Sevastopol naval base of Russia for more than 300 years straight.
6) The whole of Ukraine itself has been consistently voting for a Russian government as the ethnic-Russian element in Crimea, Donbass and elsewhere is actually the most overwhelming element in the entire country. Just think how overwhelming this element is in its core territories. One has to be a total muppet to be unable to recognise basic reality.

America invades countries for "WMD's" and Time magazine pictures.

Listening to you yapping how Crimea is "not really Russian because you can't trust Russian polls" is total cringe.
#15305859
It is also unrealistic. Ukraine just doesn't have the military might to take Crimea back.

This war will only end when Ukraine accepts the loss of territory and Russia accepts the loss of influence over Ukraine.

I'm not saying this because I'm "pro-Putin" or "pro-Ukraine" (even though I prefer to see Russia lose on this one), it's just a matter of realism. The West is not willing to do what it takes to allow Ukraine take Crimea (likely, intervene in the war directly and not just by proxy), so that's not going to happen. Putin OTOH already lost the chance to take Kiev and Ukraine showed it can stop new such attempts, specially if it keeps being supported by NATO and if it gets even more support (compared to the antebellum status quo) after the war. Russia already lost this war, by the way - the least one could have expected is for a quick Russian victory, as shown by the early posts here.
User avatar
By Skynet
#15305861
Ukrainian frontlines are crumbling, within 6 Months will the Tsar conquer Lviv, the Ukrainians are not willing to die for the rainbow flag... except France intervenes then we have Armageddon
#15305862
late wrote:...when they held the vote, the people of Crimea voted to be part of Ukraine, not Russia?...

Of course they did.

Everyone wants to be part of Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe, poorest country, leader is a vassal put into power by American neo-cons and backed up by the same group that destroyed Libya, Syria, Afghanistan etc.

Perhaps the USA and Canada should give up their sovereignty and become Ukrainian colonies? Their system is so much better than... any of the governments of the West.

Also, we need to start electing more Jewish comedians to be our leaders. Electing the "dupes and friends of Jewish comedians' simply isn't enough any more.
User avatar
By Skynet
#15305872
I love Russia where I have a son.

But I know who has the most money to offer this is Switzerland...

Since the Balkan wars where my dad let me shoot with a "Papovka" I studied para-military forces... I think nobody on this planet has a much knowledge about Paramilitarism then me.
#15305873
I dont normally post tweets. But this one is just too good:


The war in Ukraine is based on lies — lies about how it started, how it’s going, and how it will end.

We are told that Ukraine is winning when in fact it is losing. We are told that the war makes NATO stronger when in fact it is depleting it. We are told that Ukraine’s biggest problem is a lack of funds from the U.S. Congress when in fact the West can’t produce enough ammunition — a problem that will take years to fix. We are told that Russia is suffering greater casualties when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers — another problem money can’t fix.

We are told that the world is with us when in fact the Global Majority believes U.S. policy is the height of folly. We are told that there is no opportunity to make peace when in fact we have rejected multiple opportunities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine keeps fighting, it will improve its negotiating position when in fact the terms will only get much worse than what was already available and rejected.

Nevertheless the lies will succeed in dragging out the war. Congress will appropriate more funds. Russia will take more territory. Ukraine will mobilize more young men and women to feed into the meat grinder. Discontent will mount. Eventually there will be a crisis in Kiev and the Zelensky government will be toppled.

And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making, the liars will say “well we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having smeared anyone who told the truth as puppets for the enemy, the liars will say “We did our best. We stood up to Putin.”

In fact, they will claim, we would have succeeded but for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, as they moved onto Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The lies are comprehensive — but they will work.


Awesome.

Except of course ALL wars are based on lies. The first thing that dies in every war is the truth. Thats why you always need to listen to the propaganda of the enemy. Only then you have at least a chance to know whats going on.

Also I think the US empire is now ending and they wont do such trickery that much more often now. Specifically I am hopeful that the Republic of China will take a hard look at Ukraine and figure maybe we rather concentrate on getting a good deal for a peaceful unification with the People's Republic of China instead of waging a war they are guaranteed to lose, at a high and needless price.

So these lies may actually no longer work.
User avatar
By Rugoz
#15305874
QatzelOk wrote:Everyone wants to be part of Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe


Actually, Russia is the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine gets 2nd place.
#15305881
Rugoz wrote:Actually, Russia is the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine gets 2nd place.


Wrong a bit, Ukraine has been steadily improving since like 2015-2016. They are better than Russia, Serbia, Turkey and some Balkan states like Albania and Bosnia and Herzogovina. Close to Belarus I think. If things keep on this track they should reach places like Hungary, Romania/Bulgaria in couple of years. The war actually helped a bit in this regard, since it gives the internal services to hunt down corruption on pretext of collusion with Russia. Whatever works I guess. Plus they have to be super stringent on oversight for EU and US money.

It is more or less on lower tier EU candidate corruption level now. Needs to improve but things have got a lot better. Overall the war seems to have produced a good spike in anti-corruption fight in the region. Places like Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, Romania itself so their levels went considerably up for such a metric.

Image

If you compare it to others in the region:

Here is Russia: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/202 ... are-button #CPI2023 as an example.

Edit: Just to add, 11 point change in like 11-12 years is a LOT. Most countries just hover around the same point and 11 points requires extraordinary effort of reforming your system. Usually this doesn't happen. This is comparable to only the best countriest who moved up the ranks and only might be beaten out by places in extreme crysis who really know they need to deal with their own corruption like Greece for example since the economic crysis.
#15305885
Negotiator wrote:I dont normally post tweets. But this one is just too good:




Awesome.

Except of course ALL wars are based on lies. The first thing that dies in every war is the truth. Thats why you always need to listen to the propaganda of the enemy. Only then you have at least a chance to know whats going on.

Also I think the US empire is now ending and they wont do such trickery that much more often now. Specifically I am hopeful that the Republic of China will take a hard look at Ukraine and figure maybe we rather concentrate on getting a good deal for a peaceful unification with the People's Republic of China instead of waging a war they are guaranteed to lose, at a high and needless price.

So these lies may actually no longer work.


Casualties are not a myth and can be calculated and all the numbers being thrown are technically correct more or less with some degree of percentage accuracy.

So lets take Zelensky numbers: He said that Ukraine suffered 31k casualties. This is correct but strictly speaking just dead. The real number of combat removed people is larger though.

So 31-35 thousand dead. 15 Thousand who are missing or prisoners on top of around 10% of wounded that have too serious injuries to come back to the fight is basically around 70-80k For Ukraine of real number removed from the fight people for one reason and the other. And total number of removed from fight + wounded that come back is around 150k-240k.

On the other hand just Russian military casualties are at around 90-95 Thousand dead. You add additionally around 20-25 Thousand from Donetsk-Luhansk militaries and unknown number of missing action for the Russian side which they do not report and also the 10-15% percent of the wounded to the number. So its 90-95 Thousand + 20-25 thousand + lets say 50-75 Thousand of severely wounded equals to around 160-200 Thousand of removed fully from the fight for Russia. Then you multiply it also by around 3-4 to find out that total number of wounded and dead for Russia is around 500-800 Thousand somewhere in that range.

Anybody who has been paying attention to the war should know the difference between each category by now and the general ballpark numbers by now. They are more or less the same for everyone besides perhaps Russia who just wildly takes them out of nowhere and even rarely speaks on the subject. The reporting though depends on the definition of casualty that you take. Are you talking about dead? Or real definition of unreturnable casualty of dead + prisoners + severely wounded not capable of fighting or are you talking about everyone who are casualties + wounded.

But by any measurement we know that the Ratio is indeed around 1-2.5 or 1-3 if strictly speaking about unreturnable. If we talk about all casualties just simply wounded then Ukraine is 1-4 around that. Only in extreme cases like Avdiivka or Krimky the casualty rate goes to 1-5 or 1-6 since Russians are conducting suicide attacks basically at this point of war. Since this year the suicide attacks will continue then the ratio will continue shifting to more beneficial for Ukraine.

Actually it heavily depends, if Ukraine is planning a secret offensive at the end of summer again. If that doesn't happen then the Ratios will continue moving in to Ukranian favoure since all of the frontline right now is basically one huge fortification behind minefields, drones and artillery.
#15305886
JohnRawls wrote:Wrong a bit, Ukraine has been steadily improving since like 2015-2016.


Notice your link "Corruption Perception Index". This measures the perception of the author not the countries themselves. And it tells us more about the authors of the index than the countries listed.

Moreover "since 2015-16" as if something magic happened, the magic being Ukraine becoming fully enlisted in the American cause of war. Western perception on its corruption will turn more sour that they were before once Ukraine leaves the cause or is no longer useful as that will be the excuse to drop it and we are already there.

Countries like Ukraine, are corrupt to the brim, they are built that way, state wise, this does not change because of "perceptions".

JohnRawls wrote:So lets take Zelensky numbers: He said that Ukraine suffered 31k casualties. This is correct but strictly speaking just dead. The real number of combat removed people is larger though.


The US estimated 70k dead Ukrainian soldiers alone until June 2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... ainian_War

So 31-35 thousand dead. 15 Thousand who are missing or prisoners on top of around 10% of wounded that have too serious injuries to come back to the fight is basically around 70-80k For Ukraine of real number removed from the fight people for one reason and the other. And total number of removed from fight + wounded that come back is around 150k-240k.


No multiplying by 3 or 4 for Ukraine as you do below?

On the other hand just Russian military casualties are at around 90-95 Thousand dead. You add additionally around 20-25 Thousand from Donetsk-Luhansk militaries and unknown number of missing action for the Russian side which they do not report and also the 10-15% percent of the wounded to the number. So its 90-95 Thousand + 20-25 thousand + lets say 50-75 Thousand of severely wounded equals to around 160-200 Thousand of removed fully from the fight for Russia. Then you multiply it also by around 3-4 to find out that total number of wounded and dead for Russia is around 500-800 Thousand somewhere in that range.


Just for Russia you multiply? :eh:

Anybody who has been paying attention to the war should know the difference between each category by now and the general ballpark numbers by now. They are more or less the same for everyone besides perhaps Russia who just wildly takes them out of nowhere and even rarely speaks on the subject.


Anybody who has been paying attention to the war knows that it is Ukraine suffering from manpower and not Russia.
#15305888
noemon wrote:Notice your link "Corruption Perception Index". This measures the perception of the author not the countries themselves. And it tells us more about the authors of the index than the countries listed.

Moreover "since 2015-16" as if something magic happened, the magic being Ukraine becoming fully enlisted in the American cause of war. Western perception on its corruption will turn more sour that they were before once Ukraine leaves the cause or is no longer useful as that will be the excuse to drop it and we are already there.

Countries like Ukraine, are corrupt to the brim, they are built that way, state wise, this does not change because of "perceptions".



The US estimated 70k dead Ukrainian soldiers alone until June 2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... ainian_War



No multiplying by 3 or 4 for Ukraine as you do below?



Just for Russia you multiply? :eh:



Anybody who has been paying attention to the war knows that it is Ukraine suffering from manpower and not Russia.


Ukranian numbers are multiplied though? :eh: Multipliers are not the same for two sides and actually since Ukraine is on the defensive then their multiplier is lower, there is some debate on the topic actually that there is significant disagreement on. Which is worse by the way if you go in to it. Lower multiplier is a worse thing though :roll: I took the worse scenario for Ukraine for having lower multiplier for dead to wounded but if you agree that the multiplier for Ukraine on the defensive is larger then feel free.

Why is the multiplier worse? Well on the defensive you technically can evacuate a bit easier but you definitely get less injured by shrapnell and other cluster like ammunition compared to open field charges. And vast majority of wounded are from shrapnell or cluster or debree flying around and its not rifle ammo. And if your position gets overrun or taken then you are dead probably already or wounded which Russians don't really treat kindly both in caring and prisoner wise.
#15305890
noemon wrote:Notice your link "Corruption Perception Index". This measures the perception of the author not the countries themselves. And it tells us more about the authors of the index than the countries listed.

Moreover "since 2015-16" as if something magic happened, the magic being Ukraine becoming fully enlisted in the American cause of war. Western perception on its corruption will turn more sour that they were before once Ukraine leaves the cause or is no longer useful as that will be the excuse to drop it and we are already there.

Countries like Ukraine, are corrupt to the brim, they are built that way, state wise, this does not change because of "perceptions".



The US estimated 70k dead Ukrainian soldiers alone until June 2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualtie ... ainian_War



No multiplying by 3 or 4 for Ukraine as you do below?



Just for Russia you multiply? :eh:



Anybody who has been paying attention to the war knows that it is Ukraine suffering from manpower and not Russia.



As for perception index, the statistics work. You might not believe it but I think that history has proven that it is correct and measurable. Since you are Greek and I sort of mentioned Greece. Did the situation not improve since 2011? The statistics show that they did improve greatly actually even more than Ukraine.
User avatar
By noemon
#15305893
JohnRawls wrote:Ukranian numbers are multiplied though? :eh: Multipliers are not the same for two sides and actually since Ukraine is on the defensive then their multiplier is lower, there is some debate on the topic actually that there is significant disagreement on. Which is worse by the way if you go in to it. Lower multiplier is a worse thing though :roll: I took the worse scenario for Ukraine for having lower multiplier for dead to wounded but if you agree that the multiplier for Ukraine on the defensive is larger then feel free.

Why is the multiplier worse? Well on the defensive you technically can evacuate a bit easier but you definitely get less injured by shrapnell and other cluster like ammunition compared to open field charges. And vast majority of wounded are from shrapnell or cluster or debree flying around and its not rifle ammo. And if your position gets overrun or taken then you are dead probably already or wounded which Russians don't really treat kindly both in caring and prisoner wise.


Worse? It is non-existant, you multiplied by 3-4 for Russia and did not multiply anything for Ukraine. You are not using a "smaller multiplier" and it has not just been Ukraine on the defensive either, the role interchanged when Ukraine went on the offensive in the summer of 2022 and Russia established its defenses.

Overall, I would say that Ukraine and Russia have spent around the same manpower today with Russia perhaps(according to western estimates) 10-15% more but which ratio has been decreasing significantly. During the start, Russia burned through soldiers very quickly and was up by even 100% probably for the first 6 months of the war but it eventually learned its lesson and has been lowering the man for man ratio to a point where now -even based on western estimates- stands in the region of 70-100k for both Russia and Ukraine each for soldiers alone and around 400-500k total "removed from war".

The discrepancy being within the 10-15% area when it initially was in the 100% area.

Therefore, not only Russia equalised the ratio but became a lot more efficient to bring it down a lot rather than keep it steady.

This trajectory continues.
User avatar
By Rugoz
#15305902
I don't even like the EU but readily admit that European integration reduces corruption in the countries that seek it. At least if they start out in a bad place.

wat0n wrote:It is also unrealistic. Ukraine just doesn't have the military might to take Crimea back.

This war will only end when Ukraine accepts the loss of territory and Russia accepts the loss of influence over Ukraine.

Ukraine doesn't need much "military might" to take back Crimea, just the tools to make the Russian position on the island untenable. To some extent it has already achieved that.

But that is a moot point. Biden and Scholz were so obsessed with their careful, "non-escalatory" approach, that they fucked up the situation for Ukraine. It would be ironic if NATO would be forced to intervene directly because of their cowardice.

But what am I talking about. Trump is back and given he's a threat to American democracy itself, Ukraine will have little priority for the US.
By wat0n
#15305903
Rugoz wrote:Ukraine doesn't need much "military might" to take back Crimea, just the tools to make the Russian position on the island untenable. To some extent it has already achieved that.

But that is a moot point. Biden and Scholz were so obsessed with their careful, "non-escalatory" approach that they fucked up the situation for Ukraine. It would be ironic if NATO would be forced to intervene directly because of their cowardice.

But what am I talking about. Trump is back and given he's a threat to American democracy itself, Ukraine will have little priority for the US.


So you'd like to see an open war between NATO and Russia over Crimea?
User avatar
By Rugoz
#15305904
wat0n wrote:So you'd like to see an open war between NATO and Russia over Crimea?


I have no idea how you read that into my post. I want no open war between NATO and Russia at all. With sufficient support, Ukraine could have and maybe still can force Russia to withdraw from Crimea. Not with the goal to necessarily keep it, but to achieve victory. Victory over Russia is the only way to achieve a lasting peace. That, or NATO membership.

But as I said, that is a moot point. Putin will take all of Ukraine if he can. If US aid ceases, European countries could be forced to intervene. Poland for example already said a long time ago that a Russian-occupied Ukraine is unacceptable and that it would intervene before that happened.
By wat0n
#15305905
Rugoz wrote:I have no idea how you read that into my post. I want no open war between NATO and Russia at all. With sufficient support, Ukraine could have and maybe still can force Russia to withdraw from Crimea. Not with the goal to necessarily keep it, but to achieve victory. Victory over Russia is the only way to achieve a lasting peace. That, or NATO membership.

But as I said, that is a moot point. Putin will take all of Ukraine if he can. If US aid ceases, European countries could be forced to intervene. Poland for example already said a long time ago that a Russian-occupied Ukraine is unacceptable and that it would intervene before that happened.


Allow me to remain skeptic here, Ukraine was able to break the Russian blockade but it's unlikely it'll manage to blockade Crimea itself. Without a blockade, it seems far fetched to believe Russia will just leave, no matter the pressure - Russia would rather fully embrace its condition as a Chinese client state for the sake of keeping Crimea IMO.
#15305906
noemon wrote:Worse? It is non-existant, you multiplied by 3-4 for Russia and did not multiply anything for Ukraine. You are not using a "smaller multiplier" and it has not just been Ukraine on the defensive either, the role interchanged when Ukraine went on the offensive in the summer of 2022 and Russia established its defenses.

Overall, I would say that Ukraine and Russia have spent around the same manpower today with Russia perhaps(according to western estimates) 10-15% more but which ratio has been decreasing significantly. During the start, Russia burned through soldiers very quickly and was up by even 100% probably for the first 6 months of the war but it eventually learned its lesson and has been lowering the man for man ratio to a point where now -even based on western estimates- stands in the region of 70-100k for both Russia and Ukraine each for soldiers alone and around 400-500k total "removed from war".

The discrepancy being within the 10-15% area when it initially was in the 100% area.

Therefore, not only Russia equalised the ratio but became a lot more efficient to bring it down a lot rather than keep it steady.

This trajectory continues.


What do you mean, I said Ukraine nonreturnable are 70-80k while total non-returnables+wounded are probably around 150-240k which is a 2-3 times multiplication. The number is lower sure, but as I said, there is a reason for that. A higher multiplier of 3-4 also be used if you believe it should be the same. Although I don't believe it since they are both in different circumstances. Also there is a bit of a difference between the war in general and last 6-9 months. It seems that, for example, under Avdiivka the Russians were trying to preserve a lot of the equipment and send people without armor. It is hard to quantify this data right now but either they are feeling the shortages of equipment or it was just in general a better tactic overall. Hard to say for now.

As for the ammount of manpower percentage wise that was used and they have available. You are probably closer to the truth that in the grander scheme of things and percentages the available manpower used and remaining is about the same actually. Once again, it is hard to "quantify" this because the countries are totally in two different situation that:

1) Ukraine is fighting for its existence and a defensive war basically.
2) Russia is fighting an offensive war and units are no that motivated to enlist or fight in the first place since the start.

Don't get me wrong, this is not a Russia specific thing, just any offensive war is harder on the moral requirement at any time in history. So I would say that we have to take this measurements with a grain of salt so to speak. Also we live in a different time, this ain't the 20th or the 19th century so people in general are not that fond of the idea of going to war to die at least in Europe.

On paper, Russia should have the advantage even under 1-2.5 to 1-3 non-returnable casualties. I would say Ukraine would need 1-4 or 1-5 to be safe. But that is on paper. How it will actually play out in this regard is horribly hard to predict. And the reason is simple, in the grander scheme of things the amount of people dying is sustainable for both sides for decades if not longer as long as the equipment and the money is there if we ignore the social/political/moral fallout from all this.
#15305907
wat0n wrote:Allow me to remain skeptic here, Ukraine was able to break the Russian blockade but it's unlikely it'll manage to blockade Crimea itself. Without a blockade, it seems far fetched to believe Russia will just leave, no matter the pressure - Russia would rather fully embrace its condition as a Chinese client state for the sake of keeping Crimea IMO.


Well yes, I think Russia will withdraw from the rest of Ukraine before it withdraws from Crimea, but that's the point. The goal should be to make the Russian position untenable, which would force it to abandon its ambitions beyond Crimea, in exchange for peace.

Russia already withdrew most of its fleet from Crimea, because of Ukrainian attacks. It's not about a fancy ground offensive, but deep strikes against Russian logistics.
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