Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 803 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By ingliz
#15305918
Rugoz wrote:Putin will take all of Ukraine if he can

Why all?

West Ukraine has nothing he wants.


:lol:
By Rich
#15305922
So it seems the Ukrainians have retaken full control of the jewel. Now overall the Ukrainians were almost certainly down on the day in terms of area, but the idea that the Ukrainians are collapsing strikes me as just another case of wishful thinking. We had to endure the hysterical optimism of the Ukrainian cheer leaders during the early part of the greatest counter offensive and then again with the capture of Krynky, I hope we're not going to have endure another bout from the Russian cheer leaders. I'm not a hundred percent sure but I think I may have got my estimates wrong and that Ukraine is actually up on territory over the last twelve months. I think there are 2 metrics that should be promoted.

1 Net gain / loss in raw territory over the previous 12 months.

2 Net gain / loss in territory measured by its start of 2022 populations over the previous 12 months.

In answer to my 2 previous questions. Russia controls one third of the top twelve Ukrainian cites by population. They also control one third of the top fifteen. As for how many cities with a population over fifty thousand have the Ukrainians succeeded in recapturing since the start of the SMO, I believe the answer is just one. That last fact is quite a sobering one.
Last edited by Rich on 29 Feb 2024 12:21, edited 1 time in total.
#15305927
Rich wrote:So it seems the Ukrainians have retaken full control of the jewel. Now overall the Ukrainians were almost certainly down on the day in terms of area, but the idea that the Ukrainians are collapsing strikes me as just another case of wishful thinking. We had to endure the hysterical optimism of the Ukrainian cheer leaders during the early part of the greatest counter offensive and then again with the capture of Krynky, I hope we're not going to have endure another bout from the Russian cheer leaders. I'm not a hundred percent sure but I think I may have got my estimates wrong and that Ukraine is actually up on territory over the last twelve months. I think there are 2 metrics that should be promoted.

1 Net gain / loss in raw territory over the previous 12 months.

2 Net gain / loss in territory measured by its start of 2022 populations over the previous 12 moths.

In answer to my 2 previous questions. Russia controls one third of the top twelve Ukrainian cites by population. They also control one third of the top fifteen. As for how many cities with a population over fifty thousand have the Ukrainians succeeded in recapturing since the start of the SMO, I believe the answer is just one. That last fact is quite a sobering one.


Honestly, the current back and forward last year and this year doesn't matter. The territory we are talking about is so small be it what Ukraine took or what Russia takes like Bahmut or Avdiivka that it holds literally 0 operative or strategic importance. Arguably even the Ukranian success under Kharkiv and Kherson didn't matter that much strategically. May be operationally a bit that they managed to root themselves in to a river for better defences for example.

The only battle with a lot of strategic importance was Kiev and then subsequent Russian retreat from the large chunk of the country.
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By Rancid
#15305931
JohnRawls wrote:
Honestly, the current back and forward last year and this year doesn't matter. The territory we are talking about is so small be it what Ukraine took or what Russia takes like Bahmut or Avdiivka that it holds literally 0 operative or strategic importance. Arguably even the Ukranian success under Kharkiv and Kherson didn't matter that much strategically. May be operationally a bit that they managed to root themselves in to a river for better defences for example.

The only battle with a lot of strategic importance was Kiev and then subsequent Russian retreat from the large chunk of the country.


Indeed. Nearly from the start, many analysis (CSIS for example) said it's a mistake to focus on the maps, which is what you see on social media so much and on this thread. There's a much larger geopolitical game at play, and the map is at the bottom of the list in terms of judging the outcomes and consequences of this war.


BTW, Sweden in NATO, is another outcome which is a loss for Putin. Turns out Turkey and Hungary got whatever backroom deal they wanted.
#15305934
Rancid wrote:Indeed. Nearly from the start, many analysis (CSIS for example) said it's a mistake to focus on the maps, which is what you see on social media so much and on this thread. There's a much larger geopolitical game at play, and the map is at the bottom of the list in terms of judging the outcomes and consequences of this war.


BTW, Sweden in NATO, is another outcome which is a loss for Putin. Turns out Turkey and Hungary got whatever backroom deal they wanted.


Not sure what deal Turkey got but Hungary just got threatened in to 50B aid package and this unless they wanted to loose their voting rights in the EU.
By Rich
#15305938
Wow!

I said straight-off that we had to consider the possibility that Navalny was killed by Ukainian assets. The timing seemed so suspicious, with the fall of Avdiika and Ukraine desperately needing a distraction. However I didn't think if it was Ukraine we'd ever see any evidence and now we get this.
Kiev Post wrote:“I may disappoint you, but as far as we know, he indeed died as a result of a blood clot. And this has been more or less confirmed,” Budanov told journalists on the sidelines at the “Ukraine. Year of 2024” forum on Sunday.


This is Budanov saying as openly as he can that we did it. ( :lol: Maybe one day he'll write a book "if I had done it") This is him saying he did it and he wants all Ukrainians and all Russians to know he did it. He maybe wants Putin to know it. Remember that for him Putin is not just an enemy, but a professional rival. One thing that we do seem to know about Putin is that the man is seriously paranoid. And after this caper, he's arguably got good reason.
By wat0n
#15305943
JohnRawls wrote:Not sure what deal Turkey got but Hungary just got threatened in to 50B aid package and this unless they wanted to loose their voting rights in the EU.


Turkey got Sweden to increase surveillance on Kurds IIRC.
#15306021
JohnRawls wrote:...Also we live in a different time, this ain't the 20th or the 19th century so people in general are not that fond of the idea of going to war to die at least in Europe...

In the 19th and 20th Century, people loved dying in foreign wars, especially Europeans?

Did the governments of Europe (or the banks of Europe) poll their nations to see who wanted to die before starting all these wars?

In a democracy, should the people have a choice as to whether to go to war or whether to commit genocide, or should these things be decided by the organized crime gangs who run the banking system?
#15306030
QatzelOk wrote:In the 19th and 20th Century, people loved dying in foreign wars, especially Europeans?

Did the governments of Europe (or the banks of Europe) poll their nations to see who wanted to die before starting all these wars?

In a democracy, should the people have a choice as to whether to go to war or whether to commit genocide, or should these things be decided by the organized crime gangs who run the banking system?


You have no historic knowledge or what? We are much less nationalist and patriotic compared to how we were in the 19th and first half of the 20th century. Democratic institutions have been strengthened also folds compared to what they were before.
#15306033
JohnRawls wrote:You have no historic knowledge or what? ...

Not only do I have no historical knowledge, I have no economic knowledge either.

Costs of the 20-year war on terror: $8 trillion

Average cost per km of high speed rail : $25 million

That's 320,000 km of high speed rail that could have been built if the USA wasn't married to war and foreign entanglements.

***

China currently has 45,000 km. The USA currently has Dodge Rams to fill up with Arab blood.

Image
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By Rancid
#15306043
QatzelOk wrote:Not only do I have no historical knowledge, I have no economic knowledge either.

Costs of the 20-year war on terror: $8 trillion

Average cost per km of high speed rail : $25 million

That's 320,000 km of high speed rail that could have been built if the USA wasn't married to war and foreign entanglements.

***

China currently has 45,000 km. The USA currently has Dodge Rams to fill up with Arab blood.

Image


Nice truck.
#15306048
In the 19th and 20th Century, people loved dying in foreign wars, especially Europeans?

Did the governments of Europe (or the banks of Europe) poll their nations to see who wanted to die before starting all these wars?


Europeans got sick and tired of foreign wars after losing colonial wars in Africa and Asia. Most NATO allies, including the United States, Germany, Poland and Britain, have ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine. I don't think the French are ready to die for Ukraine, either, despite Macron's hawkish rhetoric. Canada is open to sending a limited number of military personnel to train Ukrainian troops far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role.

By Rich
#15306049
ThirdTerm wrote: I don't think the French are ready to die for Ukraine, either, despite Macron's hawkish rhetoric.

:lol: Die the French aren't even willing to spend the 2% of GDP on the military. Trump is absolutely right to say he won't defend a country with American lives and treasury, that can't even be bothered to spend 2% of GDP on their defence. Americans have been whining about European free loaders since Eisenhower. It didn't work, That's why you need a strong leader like Trump.

Denmark has given away all its artillery. It doesn't need artillery. Those stupid Americans will step into defend us. Things have certainly deteriorated under Joe Biden. He's MAWA to his core. Make America Weak Again.
#15306053
ThirdTerm wrote:Europeans got sick and tired of foreign wars after losing colonial wars in Africa and Asia. Most NATO allies, including the United States, Germany, Poland and Britain, have ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine. I don't think the French are ready to die for Ukraine, either, despite Macron's hawkish rhetoric. Canada is open to sending a limited number of military personnel to train Ukrainian troops far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role.


Europe is ready and willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. “Ils ne passeront pas!” :lol:
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By Rugoz
#15306056
Rich wrote::lol: Die the French aren't even willing to spend the 2% of GDP on the military. Trump is absolutely right to say he won't defend a country with American lives and treasury, that can't even be bothered to spend 2% of GDP on their defence. Americans have been whining about European free loaders since Eisenhower. It didn't work, That's why you need a strong leader like Trump.

Denmark has given away all its artillery. It doesn't need artillery. Those stupid Americans will step into defend us. Things have certainly deteriorated under Joe Biden. He's MAWA to his core. Make America Weak Again.


:knife:

As long as NATO exists and is a credible deterrence, America won't have to defend any country with American lives and treasury. That's the fucking point. Ukraine is not in NATO.

If you think shitting out of your mouth is a sign of strong leadership, I guess Trump is your guy.
#15306071
Russians are weird and even after Avdeevka they again run in to the new defensive line about 5km from Avdeevka and once again this:



#15306079
ThirdTerm wrote:...Canada is open to sending a limited number of military personnel to train Ukrainian troops far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role...


Isn't Canada brave and politically correct in doing this?

Hiding behind the USA's nuclear umbrella, Canada's effete semi-autistic leaders get to travel the globe saying things like "Canadians believe that... Canadians value... Canada is always ready to..."

Meanwhile, they are just empty suits doing whatever MoneyTM tells them to do.

Most of Canada's "leaders" are probably CIA-chosen, and they have no vision of any kind of national destiny, other than "kill foreigners for money and AIPAC smiles... (which symbolize money)"
#15306115
Rich wrote::lol: Die the French aren't even willing to spend the 2% of GDP on the military. Trump is absolutely right to say he won't defend a country with American lives and treasury, that can't even be bothered to spend 2% of GDP on their defence. Americans have been whining about European free loaders since Eisenhower. It didn't work, That's why you need a strong leader like Trump.

Denmark has given away all its artillery. It doesn't need artillery. Those stupid Americans will step into defend us. Things have certainly deteriorated under Joe Biden. He's MAWA to his core. Make America Weak Again.


Trump only said that because he wants these countries to spent money on US military products. Thats it. Thats all.

If Trump was actually interested in NATO countries being ready for war he would provide some kind of metric of their battle power. He doesnt care. Thats not his goal. NATO countries should simply improve the finances of the USA.

Russia does this the right way. The spending for their military goes up and down. Depending upon how the state of the military is. Why spent on your military if its in the shape you need ? Why not spend more on the military when you find its necessary ? Thats how it should be done, not a stupid rule like "X% of GDP". The later outright invites corruption.
#15306132
skinster wrote:Have the NATO fanboys admitted they've lost their war in Ukraine yet? :excited:


Is Kiev taken yet?
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