[litwin]

The invasion of Russian land will unite the population behind Putin and the Z-war.

No, this is the second time in 12 months the horde has been invaded the first was by GRU Prigozhin the second by liberators on a humaniarian rescue mission

[litwin]

Map of Ukraine in 1720 shows Kursk and Bilhorod as part of Ukraine. Just sayin.

[litwin]

The invasion of Russian land will unite the population behind Putin and the Z-war.

Lukasenka: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have “advanced several dozen kilometers” in the Kursk region — “30-35 already today.”
https://x.com/Azovsouth/status/1822198789500788787

[litwin]

AGREE, and we know for sure, that Moscow 18 y.o. conscripts CAN NOT FIGHT Ukranien old boys

https://x.com/i/status/1822360449167376705

[litwin]

" He cries that they were thrown to the meat without military training or support and asks his mother to create a wide public outcry about the fact that conscript soldiers are being sent to die"

https://x.com/i/status/1822291210091778516

[Rancid]

What I find funny is that the US/EU act as if nothing out of the ordinary happened.

Remains to be seen how long Ukraine can hold on to that occupied Russian territory. At least it's not their villages being bombed to smithereens.

I doubt they intend to hold the land, probably just a tactic to for Russia to tend to the region and take resources from other regions.

IN any case, it's an embarrassment for Russia.

[JohnRawls]

I doubt they intend to hold the land, probably just a tactic to for Russia to tend to the region and take resources from other regions.

IN any case, it's an embarrassment for Russia.

There are several objectives:

1) Because they can. Its a huge moral boost to route Russian army. They were not pre-pared and wasted a lot of resources in the attack on Kharkiv region for nothing. This is the implementation of Syrsky strategy of destroying enemy forces in defense and attack when they are weakened and degraded. This is perhaps the largest thing that can't be understated. Not only is it a moral boost but also shows that Syrsky strategy is working.

2) Forces Russia to pause whatever they were doing and move their forces to Kursk since Russia has no real reserves. They all were committed to the numerous meat offensives.

3) They are not going to leave for now that easily. The basic idea is that it is a bargaining chip if they need to bargain somewhere in the future.

4) They get easy prisoners to exchange whatever is in Russian torture camps. Sitting on the defensive doesn't net you a lot of prisoners for obvious reasons.

5) Its a massive blow to Putins reputation within Russia.

[Rich]

2) Forces Russia to pause whatever they were doing and move their forces to Kursk since Russia has no real reserves.

I don't doubt this was an objective, but so far it hasn't happened. Russian advances in the Donbas continue. A lot will depend on how much Russia can use its conscripts, that is their supposed purpose to defend 2013 Russian territory. If the Ukrainian Kursk offenisve fails to stop the advances in the Donbas and the south, then it will likely cause deep resentment amongst the defending troops who have been denied badly needed equipment, ammunition and reinforcements in order to launch this offensive.

Of course in the pathetic fantasy world of the Liberals and Ukrainian propaganda, 2022 was a full scale invasion. It was not, no where near. And it doesn't matter how many times the liberal morons repeat this lie. The truth is that Putin made a massive error in 2014, in not committing his forces fully, trying to be too clever by half in his diplomatic games. By 2022 he was in a difficult position. He simply did not have sufficient commitment from the Russian people to make a full scale invasion with sufficient troops.

The cretinism of the liberals just beggar belief. Russian troops had 3 or 4 days of supplies, therefore they expected to conquer all of Ukraine in 3 or 4 days. By this moronic logic Eisenhower expected allied troops to reach Berlin 4 days, when they landed in Normandy. Putin's invasion plan in 2022 was clearly driven by security concerns. I don't doubt there was wishful thinking on the oart of Putin and his inner circle, but what the Liberals seem incapable of considering is that a properly planned, trained, resourced and timed invasion of Ukraine was just not politically possible.

[GandalfTheGrey]

No, this is the second time in 12 months the horde has been invaded the first was by GRU Prigozhin the second by liberators on a humaniarian rescue mission

Peter Zeihan posted some interesting points about Russian's loyalty to the regime, and makes two key conclusions:
1. No one in Russia is about to overthrow the regime, and even if there was, no one is going to join or support them - and 2. on the flip side, if somehow the situation gets to the point where the regime is on the verge of collapse, similarly, no one will stand up and prop up/support Putin or his crumbling regime. The case study here was Wagner's march on Moscow - where no one joined him, but no one stood in his way either (though had it got to actual armed conflict, Putin's loyalists would have crushed them).

I think this helps me understand how Russian's react to something like this Kursk invasion - that is, its not going to cause them to unite against the invaders in some patriotic fervour, but nor is going to make them want to start a general uprising against Putin either.

But what it ultimately means, is that when the end is nigh for Putin, his fall will be extremely sudden indeed (not to mention unexpected).

[litwin]

Peter Zeihan posted some interesting points about Russian's loyalty to the regime, and makes two key conclusions:
1. No one in Russia is about to overthrow the regime, and even if there was, no one is going to join or support them - and 2. on the flip side, if somehow the situation gets to the point where the regime is on the verge of collapse, similarly, no one will stand up and prop up/support Putin or his crumbling regime. The case study here was Wagner's march on Moscow - where no one joined him, but no one stood in his way either (though had it got to actual armed conflict, Putin's loyalists would have crushed them).

I think this helps me understand how Russian's react to something like this Kursk invasion - that is, its not going to cause them to unite against the invaders in some patriotic fervour, but nor is going to make them want to start a general uprising against Putin either.

But what it ultimately means, is that when the end is nigh for Putin, his fall will be extremely sudden indeed (not to mention unexpected).

Zeihan ´d BUY e-net lectures (on this subject) from me. He knows very lite about our , very complex region .

a good example :


"Muslim Kadyrovtsy signed a mutual "non-aggression pact" with Ukraine and let the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Kursk region"
Almost looks like Chechnya is still fighting Kremlin imperialists while pretending to be an ally. If that turns out to be true, Ramzan is one hell of an actor.
https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/18 ... 6541647980

[Rancid]

Peter Zeihan posted some interesting points about Russian's loyalty to the regime, and makes two key conclusions:
1. No one in Russia is about to overthrow the regime, and even if there was, no one is going to join or support them - and 2. on the flip side, if somehow the situation gets to the point where the regime is on the verge of collapse, similarly, no one will stand up and prop up/support Putin or his crumbling regime. The case study here was Wagner's march on Moscow - where no one joined him, but no one stood in his way either (though had it got to actual armed conflict, Putin's loyalists would have crushed them).

I think this helps me understand how Russian's react to something like this Kursk invasion - that is, its not going to cause them to unite against the invaders in some patriotic fervour, but nor is going to make them want to start a general uprising against Putin either.

But what it ultimately means, is that when the end is nigh for Putin, his fall will be extremely sudden indeed (not to mention unexpected).

Indeed, that is exactly what being depoliticized means. Another youtuber, that Philosophy guy that is Russian, Vlad Vexler has made similar points around this. Basically, Russians will nether defend or fight against the regime. Hence why the regime continues, even with the massive losses of young men that would cause just about any other nation to stop fighting.

This means Ukraine will need to grind on against Russia until some tipping point unrelated to the general population's apathy is hit. I wonder if Russia will start to shell Kursk since Putin doesn't care about his own population.

At this point, Putin is in too deep. In to a point where he is focused on saving his own regime from this embarrassment.

[litwin]

https://x.com/AlexBondODUA/status/1822628444225654823

[litwin]

[Negotiator]

The invasion of Russian land will unite the population behind Putin and the Z-war.

... Z-War ?!?

But yes, pretty much, except that already happened from all the other intentional actions against civilians from Ukraine before.

Like the bombing of the bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea, the mostly failed attempts to bomb russian cities like Moscow, or the recent bombing of the beach of Crimea with a cluster bomb.

[JohnRawls]

... Z-War ?!?

But yes, pretty much, except that already happened from all the other intentional actions against civilians from Ukraine before.

Like the bombing of the bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea, the mostly failed attempts to bomb russian cities like Moscow, or the recent bombing of the beach of Crimea with a cluster bomb.

Cool story. Fuck around and find out. Putin seems to be a looser and not the strong man you guys try to show him as. How come Ukraine penetrated Mother Russia defences so easily?

[Rancid]

Cool story. Fuck around and find out. Putin seems to be a looser and not the strong man you guys try to show him as. How come Ukraine penetrated Mother Russia defences so easily?

These are people that are very resistant to reality.

[wat0n]

I legit wish Igor was here.

Like, I don't have much to add beyond saying that Ukraine hopes to use this in the bargaining table when the time comes.

So I'd legit love to read his take on the Ukrainian operation in Kursk.

[GandalfTheGrey]

I legit wish Igor was here.

Like, I don't have much to add beyond saying that Ukraine hopes to use this in the bargaining table when the time comes.

So I'd legit love to read his take on the Ukrainian operation in Kursk.

I wouldn't. It would go something like this... "blah blah NATO zergs following their NATO overlord's bidding.... blah blah.... desparate last throw of the dice.... blah blah they only made ground because Russian's let them, cunningly luring them into a trap... Russian's will annhialate them as usual blah blah"

Igor was half interesting when he talks about Russian point of view, as I think he has some useful insights into that. But as soon as he starts ranting about the evil NATO empire and their Ukrainian 'zerglings' and how hopeless they are - it gets tedious real fast.

Also, keep in mind that Igor was apparently somewhere in former Yugoslavia when the 99 NATO bombing went down and allegedly his family were forced to flee.... so you can't expect him to have a rational take on such matters.

[JohnRawls]

I wouldn't. It would go something like this... "blah blah NATO zergs following their NATO overlord's bidding.... blah blah.... desparate last throw of the dice.... blah blah they only made ground because Russian's let them, cunningly luring them into a trap... Russian's will annhialate them as usual blah blah"

Igor was half interesting when he talks about Russian point of view, as I think he has some useful insights into that. But as soon as he starts ranting about the evil NATO empire and their Ukrainian 'zerglings' and how hopeless they are - it gets tedious real fast.

Also, keep in mind that Igor was apparently somewhere in former Yugoslavia when the 99 NATO bombing went down and allegedly his family were forced to flee.... so you can't expect him to have a rational take on such matters.

His family emigrated to Australia yeah after the Yugo Wars. Funnily enough, he never accepted that Yugoslavia was the reason for the civil war and not NATO. So that is that. Never asked himself why did he have to flee in the first place to a, gasp, liberal democracy somewhere on the other side of the world.

[Negotiator]

Cool story. Fuck around and find out. Putin seems to be a looser and not the strong man you guys try to show him as. How come Ukraine penetrated Mother Russia defences so easily?

Sigh.

If you had paid attention you would know that, but obviously you dont.

Because thats exactly why Russia felt they needed to start this war in the first place.

Thats exactly why Ukraine is a vital security interest of Russia.

Russia has too few people and a too long border.

Thats why they cannot protect their whole border.

Thats the point of why they cant tolerate an Ukraine thats aggressive towards them. Thats why having a neutral Ukraine is vital for Russias security.

Thats also why they now massively militarize the border to Finnland, since Finnland is now no longer neutral, but an active aggressor.

Caprice ?