[Hakeer]

Yes, the recovery from 2008 was quite fast. But that hasn't always been the case like in the Great Depression or the 1973 crisis.

That’s why I own recession-proof stocks for the last 44 years. My dividend income remained stable. In fact, investors move into those stocks during recessions. I have never felt the slightest impulse to buy bonds or index funds.

[JohnRawls]

That’s why I own recession-proof stocks for the last 44 years. My dividend income remained stable. In fact, investors move into those stocks during recessions. I have never felt the slightest impulse to buy bonds or index funds.

There is no such thing as recession proof stocks because a) you never know what recession you are going to get b) recessions are not really easily predictable in the first place.

[SpecialOlympian]

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, yadda yadda. Just look at Tesla making it to the top of the S&P 500 despite making cars that explode and crash both on the road and in their OS.

Listen, I'm not here to defend bonds. If Hakeer came to me as a potential client and adamantly said, "No bonds, ever," I'd just be mildly bemused and move on to cataloguing his assets and ensuring he was in a portfolio he was happy with while also going wide eyed at the unrealized gains listed on his brokerage statement.

No bonds, fine, he's in a position where he can do that. But I want to stress this: I have not given any advice to Hakeer. I've worked in wealth management for over a decade, I have the knowledge and experience to speak generally about this. And frankly, it's a little insulting to have someone say, "Oh yeah while you were wrong about my past financial decisions," when I haven't even had the discussion outlining the scope of the services I provide before I even become their financial planner.

[Hakeer]

There is no such thing as recession proof stocks because a) you never know what recession you are going to get b) recessions are not really easily predictable in the first place.

I never tried to predict when a recession will begin or end. I don’t care. Large cap stocks with good free cash flow like Microsoft, Amazon, etc. will bounce back just fine. You know that. And good dividend stocks like P&G will give me income to ride through the recession. This isn’t some theory. It’s been my experience consistently since the 1970’s.

I thought you said I should have 5-10% in bonds paying only about 5% interest. That is a terrible return.

[JohnRawls]

I never tried to predict when a recession will begin or end. I don’t care. Large cap stocks with good free cash flow like Microsoft, Amazon, etc. will bounce back just fine. You know that. And good dividend stocks like P&G will give me income to ride through the recession. This isn’t some theory. It’s been my experience consistently since the 1970’s.

I thought you said I should have 5-10% in bonds paying only about 5% interest. That is a terrible return.

I misunderstood, you made it sound like the stock is not taking a hit.(Because some stocks indeed do not take a hit during recessions because it might be actually good for them like Covid was good for IT) If you meant that they will bounce back then yeah that is obvious.

[Hakeer]

I misunderstood, you made it sound like the stock is not taking a hit.(Because some stocks indeed do not take a hit during recessions because it might be actually good for them like Covid was good for IT) If you meant that they will bounce back then yeah that is obvious.

I just checked my account. I am up 228% over the last 7 years, and the S&P is up 127%. If you buy an index fund, you are buying the dogs along with the winners. I’d rather just try to pick winners. My latest is Palantir. It is up 147% since I bought it.

[JohnRawls]

I just checked my account. I am up 228% over the last 7 years, and the S&P is up 127%. If you buy an index fund, you are buying the dogs along with the winners. I’d rather just try to pick winners. My latest is Palantir. It is up 147% since I bought it.

Trying to Outperform S&P or especially NASDAQ is a fools errand on average on a long distance even for professional investors.

There are not many professional companies who actually manage it and the vast majority of them are net negative compared to S&P, not to mention Nasdaq and you can probably count the funds outperforming them just with your fingers. Some can do it for a year, some might be able to do it for 5 but even for 10 years its hardly possible not to mention 15,20,25,30 years.

Even the guru god of investing Warren Buffet is net negative against S&P over 20 years. He was positive like for 15-17 or something like that.

[SpecialOlympian]

Yeah why wouldn't I want to do as well as the S&P 500, which has had multiple years of 20%+ growth in the past decade, and just gamble on individual stocks? Just do what Hakeer does, and consistently invest in winning stocks that are part of the S&P 500 and consistently outperform it. It's so easy, when you have the power of hindsight. Why don't you just come to my office and tell all of the Chartered Financial Analysts sitting at their Bloomberg terminals what fucking idiots they are for not listening to your genius of idea of, "Buy stocks that increase in value." None of them have ever considered that.

People only brag about their wins, they never tell you about their losses. And I wish they would, and tell us about offsetting capital gains with capital losses and efficient use of loss carry forwards. That's a basic investment principal! If you're basic and just buying Vanguard Target Retirement 20XX funds that's a perfectly fine thing to do. Don't let people like Hakeer brag you into making risky investments. It's your future, it's your money, and you can only cash a paycheck once.

Hakeer, you're obviously happy with your money and what it has done for you. Which is what you strive for your when you have a financial planning client. You criticize me for advice I haven't given you while telling everyone else to behave like you. We don't have time machines that allow us to go back to the 80's and start investing over 40 years. Your advice is not relevant, and the advice you give is specifically tailored to you.

I would absolutely love to see you sit with your accountant and talk about your realized gains and how that affects your tax situation. Do you even do loss harvesting every December? Do you even know what that term means? No, don't go to Investopedia.

I'm not saying this to justify my career or my own existence. I wouldn't want you as a client because you know you know better, and do not need my help. It simply wouldn't be a good fit. But it's telling that you're so opinionated about how other people should invest. I literally work in the industry of wealth management and have less opinions on how other people should behave. I have accepted that, even when someone wants to do something I consider wrong, I can't tell people how their excess income can make them feel secure and happy. It's their money! I can try to educate someone, but at the end of the day if they're losing sleep over it the money isn't serving its purpose!

And yes, some people will do stupid shit like buy a new Mustang at 72 even if it costs 60% of their savings and I say it's unwise. But it's their money, and at the end of the day I have to take their directive and instruct a trader to make sales to cover an incredibly stupid purchase.

[SpecialOlympian]

Aside from “Don’t panic sell,” your advice is “buy the best stocks. Like I did.”

The former is genuinely good advice. The latter is just pointlessly berating someone for not being you and doing what you did in the past. A past nobody can take part of.

[Hakeer]

Yeah why wouldn't I want to do as well as the S&P 500, which has had multiple years of 20%+ growth in the past decade, and just gamble on individual stocks? Just do what Hakeer does, and consistently invest in winning stocks that are part of the S&P 500 and consistently outperform it. It's so easy, when you have the power of hindsight. Why don't you just come to my office and tell all of the Chartered Financial Analysts sitting at their Bloomberg terminals what fucking idiots they are for not listening to your genius of idea of, "Buy stocks that increase in value." None of them have ever considered that.

People only brag about their wins, they never tell you about their losses. And I wish they would, and tell us about offsetting capital gains with capital losses and efficient use of loss carry forwards. That's a basic investment principal! If you're basic and just buying Vanguard Target Retirement 20XX funds that's a perfectly fine thing to do. Don't let people like Hakeer brag you into making risky investments. It's your future, it's your money, and you can only cash a paycheck once.

Hakeer, you're obviously happy with your money and what it has done for you. Which is what you strive for your when you have a financial planning client. You criticize me for advice I haven't given you while telling everyone else to behave like you. We don't have time machines that allow us to go back to the 80's and start investing over 40 years. Your advice is not relevant, and the advice you give is specifically tailored to you.

I would absolutely love to see you sit with your accountant and talk about your realized gains and how that affects your tax situation. Do you even do loss harvesting every December? Do you even know what that term means? No, don't go to Investopedia.

I'm not saying this to justify my career or my own existence. I wouldn't want you as a client because you know you know better, and do not need my help. It simply wouldn't be a good fit. But it's telling that you're so opinionated about how other people should invest. I literally work in the industry of wealth management and have less opinions on how other people should behave. I have accepted that, even when someone wants to do something I consider wrong, I can't tell people how their excess income can make them feel secure and happy. It's their money! I can try to educate someone, but at the end of the day if they're losing sleep over it the money isn't serving its purpose!

And yes, some people will do stupid shit like buy a new Mustang at 72 even if it costs 60% of their savings and I say it's unwise. But it's their money, and at the end of the day I have to take their directive and instruct a trader to make sales to cover an incredibly stupid purchase.

I can only pull up the last 27 years of data on the M-L website, but I beat the S&L almost every year, and I know from memory it’s longer than that. Nasdaq is a closer race, but I beat them too over the last 7 years. I’ve had some VERY big winners and never a big loser. My biggest mistake was waiting too long to sell Teva pharma, but I didn’t lose money on it.

I would NOT advise everyone to adopt my strategy. But it does work if the investor has the temperament to stick with it.

[SpecialOlympian]

You fired your advisor and stuck with their brokerage? Merril-Lynch of all places?

I miss TD Ameritrade so much because they had the best customer service for RIAs.

I'd call them up and say, "Hey, client placed a bunch of sells to cover a new home purchase. Can you free up funds earlier than the trade settlement date? (Typically, T+2/3, or trade date plus two/three business days before a revolutionizing event that made trade settlements shorter)"

"Sure! Happy to help!"

Schwab is run by fucking automatons who won't give you that grace. If someone sells a security and the money doesn't show up, the SEC shows up and stops the entire show. Used to have TDA agents joking, "Yeah lol if the trade doesn't settle we're all fucked. So here's the money." Schwab fucking sucks and I hate them.

[Hakeer]

You fired your advisor and stuck with their brokerage?

I miss TD Ameritrade so much because they had the best customer service for RIAs.

I'd call them up and say, "Hey, client placed a bunch of sells to cover a new home purchase. Can you free up funds earlier than the trade settlement date? (Typically, T+2, or trade date plus two business days)"

"Sure! Happy to help!"

Schwab is run by fucking automatons who won't give you that grace. If someone sells a security and the money doesn't show up, the SEC shows up and stops the entire show. Used to have TDA agents joking, "Yeah lol if the trade doesn't settle we're all fucked. So here's the money."

I would not “diversify” into bonds and funds. The other issue is that I wouldn’t let them churn my portfolio to generate commissions. I am too much of a “buy quality stocks and hold” kind of guy to suit them.

Now that I have Merrill-Edge self-managed account, I do everything online and hardly ever talk to them.

[SpecialOlympian]

Come out with it Hakeer. Buy and Hold is a good strategy, a strong fisted diamond handed good strategy for holding stocks.

15% isn't a lot compared to the progressive income tax, but I guarantee you're surprised by what you have to sell and then what you have to sell more to cover taxes.

You buy a stock at $5/share in 1985. You sell it at $100/share in 2024. 15% of that difference, minimum, is what you need to cover on the sale now to fund whatever family benefits you see fit to spend on.

[SpecialOlympian]

I would not “diversify” into bonds and funds. The other issue is that I wouldn’t let them churn my portfolio to generate commissions. I am too much of a “buy quality stocks and hold” kind of guy to suit them.

Now that I have Merrill-Edge self-managed account, I do everything online and hardly ever talk to them.

You're 65 and your money makes you happy. Why would I even give you advice or advertise myself to you when you're cleraly happy?

Also nobody in the RIA space is making money on comissions on trades. It's a race to the bottom on fees for management, and they aren't brokers who actually conduct the trades.

My job exists because you pay someone to manage your money and I show up to tell you, "Keep investing, here's the life you can have at 65 based on your wants." Financial planning is a service RIAs are offering because it:

1) Justifies their investent services

2) Is a service you need to offer to differentiate yourself from every other asshole who can construct a portfolio that can diversify business risk away (the risk that a business might just fail, and leave your earnings to the whims of the market)

I ageee with the idea that "people need planning at any age" but RIAs need planners like me to help Advisors speak to their clients while they're off prospecting to increase their commissions based paycheck.

[SpecialOlympian]

Thank you for admitting your investment success is not a model for everyone, that was big of you.

[Hakeer]

Come out with it Hakeer. Buy and Hold is a good strategy, a strong fisted diamond handed good strategy for holding stocks.

15% isn't a lot compared to the progressive income tax, but I guarantee you're surprised by what you have to sell and then what you have to sell more to cover taxes.

You buy a stock at $5/share in 1985. You sell it at $100/share in 2024. 15% of that difference, minimum, is what you need to cover on the sale now to fund whatever family benefits you see fit to spend on.

I don’t sell a lot of stocks, so I don’t have a lot of capital gains to worry about on taxes. And I have limited my dividends to only what I need for cash flow.

However, JEPQ is going to increase my taxes this year, but I will use those premiums over the next several years to put granddaughters through college.

[SpecialOlympian]

Yeah, you can't sell stocks. You have 40 years of appreciation on them, and realizing those gains makes you pay more taxes.

I work in the industry. I'm not judging you. I just know how cap gains work.

Good for your heirs: step up in cost basis on death.

[Hakeer]

Yeah, you can't sell stocks. You have 40 years of appreciation on them, and realizing those gains makes you pay more taxes.

I work in the industry. I'm not judging you. I just know how cap gains work.

Good for your heirs: step up in cost basis on death.

Ha! It’s going to make my heirs pay capital gains when I’m dead. If you have a solution for that……

[SpecialOlympian]

No they won't. Cost basis is reset upon death.

And you will not reach the majesty of being worth $13 million dollars on your death. Your estate will not be subject to the estate tax. You will never have that much money. You may be angry about it, but from an estate planning perspective you're quite fortunate!

You do not even understand the gift code and how it reduces your estate tax exclusion. Which is literally my job to know. You speak before a god who understands the tax code more than you could ever know, and your first desire is to insult me. You should be paying me to speak with me.

If I were bored enough, I could give you free tax planning advice. I could give you advice on how to plan the estate you plan to leave in death. Instead, you choose to wallow in your own filth. "Look at me! I only buy stocks!"

Idiot. Fool. Doesn't even know how much their children will be dancing because you're dead, and all the stocks you left them are stepped up in cost basis. Your children will sell your stocks and reinvest for their own purposes with minimal tax consequences.

[SpecialOlympian]

Hey, rich boy, did you even know titlng your assets in a trust keep them out of probate and the public record? This is especially useful when you own property in multiple states, as the owner is not the decedent and it allows the new Trusteee to assume owernship of the title.

I know this because you use money. I am money, and capital, and property, you weak piece of shit. Come at me.

Because when you die I'm filing a FOIA request to see your brokerage statements as they make their way through the Probate Court. Just so I can mock your investment history. You do not even know how to hide your money from the public record. But I do, and that's basic shit.

Come at me you bondless bitch.