Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 898 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By Rich
#15327066
Not only is it cretinous to imagine that Russia has no options for escalation, short of strategic nuclear war. Russia had numerous capabilities to escalate, some of which it has already enacted. It would also be a mistake to assume that Zelensky and the Kiev regime have no power to escalate. If a side considers the war lost they may resort to escalation in order to create a severe enough crisis to create the reassure to bring the war to an abrupt end. In General Sir John Hacket's Third World War, when the war goes irretrievably bad for the Soviets they launch a single nuclear strike against Birmingham England, accepting that NATO will take out one of their cities in response, in-order to create the pressure to end the war.

If Zelsnsky decides his dreams of recapturing significant territory are dead and all he faces, is a continued loss of further territory, he may well seek to escalate. In fact the Kursk operation may have been partly motivated by this thinking. There seems to be some talk about an attack on Transnistria. That sounds like a good idea to me as long as he's still got sufficient forces capable of mounting such an offensive. There's 22 days left to the election. Zelensky could be wise to use the leverage while he still has it. Once the election's over, who ever wins Zelensky's leverage will be much reduced. The abject failure of the victory plan tour during the American election campaign doesn't bode well for his future prospects.
User avatar
By litwin
#15327074
Negotiator wrote:Forward-looking and humane is exactly what Russia is NOW already.

I dont know about "liberal" though because frankly the term has lost all meaning. The worst rightwingers, the more rightwing than actualy rightwingers, the woke crowd, the anti-worker, pro-war, anti-democracy, pro-censorship crowd claims they are leftwing. Because they are doing identity politics. Badly.


It is us, the west, who have arranged a coup and an eight year long civil war in Ukraine.

It is us, the west, who are extremely racist towards russians, both those living in Ukraine (30% of the population there) and those from Russia itself.

It is us, the west, who enable the ukrainian nazis, who wanted to drive all russians out of their country. And we did it because we wanted to hurt Russia. That it would hurt Ukraine never bothered us.

It is us, the west, who are drowing Ukraine in debt. Debt they can never repay anyway.

It is us, the west, who is taking over everything Ukraine. Right now Blackrock alone already has taken more land from Ukraine than Russia has.

And it is Russia who is now cleaning up after us.


It is us who need to become forward-looking and humane again.

Like finally noticing that we have "sanctioned" more than half of mankind and in fact our "sanctions" more and more only serve to isolating us, not any of our adversaries.

rt. CRAP

YOU GUYS ARE ALL WAR - CRIMINALS , believe me , you all are all gonna pay for this . Like servs do ...

https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1845365488039362891

Image

Image
#15327138
Negotiator wrote:I dont know about "liberal" though because frankly the term has lost all meaning.


Liberal means not being jailed for years for voicing opposition to a war.

Liberal means not being jailed for standing up for minorities, such as LGBTQ people or childless women.

Liberal means equality before the law.

Liberal means not being shot, poisoned or thrown out of a window for daring to reveal corruption or running for office against the will of those in power.

Liberal means having free and fair elections, with healthy political competition and peaceful transfers of power.

"Liberal" hasn't lost its meaning at all.
By Rich
#15327139
Its funny that there's been so much anguished speculation about the purpose of the Kursk offensive, both by Ukraine's ardent supporters and by its sceptics. The goal is obvious. It was to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant. This was intended as a very serious escalation. Escalate to deescalate. I would note at this point that the Liberals have given us a categorical assurance that under no circumstances would Putin ever dare to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Which means that if a nuclear weapon does go off in Ukraine, we will know for sure that it is a Ukrainian false flag.

Lacking a nuclear weapon Zelensky's best option for escalation was the capture of the power plant or failing that bringing it into the battle zone. The hope was to create such an intense crisis that Biden would step in and hammer out a deal with Putin. Now why would he do this, because such a deal would almost certainly fall well short of Zelensky's maximalist war aims. Partly because Zelensky doesn't fancy the deal he would get out of a Trump presidency, but also because he's looked at the deal that Biden won for his Afghan allies at the start of his Presidency and doesn't fancy the deal Harris might win for him at the start of hers.

Zelensky knew that come November 5th, his leverage over his American allies would be much reduced and over his European governmental allies that want to do what they can to avoid another Trump Presidency.
User avatar
By litwin
#15327185
Rich wrote:Its funny that there's been so much anguished speculation about the purpose of the Kursk offensive, both by Ukraine's ardent supporters and by its sceptics. The goal is obvious. It was to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant. This was intended as a very serious escalation. Escalate to deescalate. I would note at this point that the Liberals have given us a categorical assurance that under no circumstances would Putin ever dare to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Which means that if a nuclear weapon does go off in Ukraine, we will know for sure that it is a Ukrainian false flag.

Lacking a nuclear weapon Zelensky's best option for escalation was the capture of the power plant or failing that bringing it into the battle zone. The hope was to create such an intense crisis that Biden would step in and hammer out a deal with Putin. Now why would he do this, because such a deal would almost certainly fall well short of Zelensky's maximalist war aims. Partly because Zelensky doesn't fancy the deal he would get out of a Trump presidency, but also because he's looked at the deal that Biden won for his Afghan allies at the start of his Presidency and doesn't fancy the deal Harris might win for him at the start of hers.

Zelensky knew that come November 5th, his leverage over his American allies would be much reduced and over his European governmental allies that want to do what they can to avoid another Trump Presidency.


TEARS OF THE ORC :lol:
NEW EPISODE.
“I’m the only one left alive from our group. I have a wound in my leg. I have 130 meters left to reach my own. I can't reach it. The Ukrainians are between us,” — the occupier is crying and recording his last video.

https://x.com/i/status/1845500952977056089

from the other side :



ps

Ukrainian POWs are being beaten, starved & tørtured by the horde , "

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PS saved for the HAGUE
#15327216
Rich wrote:Its funny that there's been so much anguished speculation about the purpose of the Kursk offensive, both by Ukraine's ardent supporters and by its sceptics. The goal is obvious. It was to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant. This was intended as a very serious escalation. Escalate to deescalate. I would note at this point that the Liberals have given us a categorical assurance that under no circumstances would Putin ever dare to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Which means that if a nuclear weapon does go off in Ukraine, we will know for sure that it is a Ukrainian false flag.

Lacking a nuclear weapon Zelensky's best option for escalation was the capture of the power plant or failing that bringing it into the battle zone. The hope was to create such an intense crisis that Biden would step in and hammer out a deal with Putin. Now why would he do this, because such a deal would almost certainly fall well short of Zelensky's maximalist war aims. Partly because Zelensky doesn't fancy the deal he would get out of a Trump presidency, but also because he's looked at the deal that Biden won for his Afghan allies at the start of his Presidency and doesn't fancy the deal Harris might win for him at the start of hers.

Zelensky knew that come November 5th, his leverage over his American allies would be much reduced and over his European governmental allies that want to do what they can to avoid another Trump Presidency.


How much baseless speculative nonsense can you fit in one post Rich?

To understand the goals of the Kursk operation, the most obvious idea is probably a good place to start: an estimated ~50k Russian troops have been diverted from offensive operations in the Donbas to engage the Ukrainians in Kursk. Now the Autumn mud is closing in, this redeployment has likely cost the Russians several of their summer offensive goals. Thats the most obvious reason for the operation - and in that respect, it seems to have succeeded.
#15327227
litwin wrote:Image


Rape by Russian soldiers seems epidemic. Even in Switzerland, we have hundreds of Ukrainian women receiving psychological treatment. The way Russia conducts this war is just fucking disgusting.
User avatar
By litwin
#15327258
Rugoz wrote:Rape by Russian soldiers seems epidemic. Even in Switzerland, we have hundreds of Ukrainian women receiving psychological treatment. The way Russia conducts this war is just fucking disgusting.


for Mongol - Muscovites , its just a tool. they like to rape...

"I go to Berlin to rape German women"

Image

https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1841606695249703255


In 1944, the "liberation" of Poland by the Red Army began in the worst possible way: more than 100,000 Polish women and girls were raped by Soviet soldiers, and many of them were also killed. The victims ranged in age from 4 to 80 years old. In the city of Olsztyn all Polish women and girls from 9 to 80 years old were raped. The wave of rapes at the hands of the Red Army caused a pandemic of sexual diseases, which affected 10% of the Polish population.

https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2022/09 ... -world-war


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#15327268
Rugoz wrote:The way Russia conducts this war is just fucking disgusting.


Launching aggressive war against a neighbour that poses zero threat to you is fucking disgusting.

That rape and other atrocities occur when war is launched should surprise no one. In fact it is 100% inevitable. No one should expect wars to be conducted "nicely" once they are started, or that anything other than sheer hell on earth will be the result. Launching aggressive war was rightly labelled the "supreme crime" by the Nuremberg prosecutors - from which all other war atrocities spawn. Russia is rightly condemned for war crimes such as rape and executing POWs - but more importantly, they have to be condemned, and held to account for committing the mother of all crimes - without which these war crimes that we talk about now would not be possible.
#15327310
GandalfTheGrey wrote:Launching aggressive war against a neighbour that poses zero threat to you is fucking disgusting.


True, threatening a nuclear superpower you directly border with nuclear weapons and total anihilationis is totally harmless. :lol:

If Mexico or Canada did that to the USA, nothing would happen.

In fact we know exactly what would happen, because Cuba did exactly that in 1962, and JFK was ready to start WW3 over it.

Not just attack Cuba. He was ready to attack Russia. With nuclear weapons.

Who could have predicted that Russia would react the same way in 2022 as the USA in 1962 ? So strange how reality works. :roll:


The real problem though is that this thread is a broken record that repeats itself over and over, and people just post the same b.s. over and over, no matter how easy it is to disprove this bullshit.
#15327316
Negotiator wrote:True, threatening a nuclear superpower you directly border with nuclear weapons and total anihilationis is totally harmless. :lol:

If Mexico or Canada did that to the USA, nothing would happen.

In fact we know exactly what would happen, because Cuba did exactly that in 1962, and JFK was ready to start WW3 over it.

Not just attack Cuba. He was ready to attack Russia. With nuclear weapons.

Who could have predicted that Russia would react the same way in 2022 as the USA in 1962 ? So strange how reality works. :roll:


The real problem though is that this thread is a broken record that repeats itself over and over, and people just post the same b.s. over and over, no matter how easy it is to disprove this bullshit.



How did Ukraine threaten Russia? Are you fucking joking?
By Rancid
#15327320
JohnRawls wrote:How did Ukraine threaten Russia? Are you fucking joking?


He's been wildly wrong the whole thread.

He also fails to see how Russia has already lost strategically speaking. All Putin is fighting for is self-preservation and keeping some bits of land at this point. The Pro-Putin crowd is dense. No suprirse there is a strong correlation with MAGA here.
#15327323
Rancid wrote:He's been wildly wrong the whole thread.

He also fails to see how Russia has already lost strategically speaking. All Putin is fighting for is self-preservation and keeping some bits of land at this point. The Pro-Putin crowd is dense. No suprirse there is a strong correlation with MAGA here.


I know but we still need to mention that faulty logic all the time, every time.

It is like the Russians pointing out that the West is out to get them and is keeping them on their knees because the West wants to humiliate them or something. But in reality they are in the shitter because of their own goddamn fault, slide to Dictatorship and inability to build real inclusive institutions for the last 300 years.

It has been scientifically proven that democratic institutions, rule of law, inclusion of people in to politics has direct effect on your prosperity. And when I mean direct effect, i obviously mean causation and not just correlation. This is not a chicken or egg question because it has been answer to be that you get institutions first and then you get prosperity.

For Christ sake, the people who proved this just got a Nobel Prize a week ago but their works have been around for 15-20-25 years and I posted them in this thread by the way somewhere in the earlier hundreds of pages.

So here is the reminder what they got their nobel prizes for:

The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1 ... .91.5.1369
Reversal of Fortune: https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default ... ortune.pdf

TLDR for the works: First work takes two negative factors like Settler Mortality with the idea that places which had high settler mortality durring colonisation lead to creation of extractive institutions and places that had low settler mortality lead to inclusive institutions prooven with data. Then what is the economic makeup of those places after hundreds of years? Second article does more or less the same but with population density that high population density colonisation lead to extractive insitutions and low population density institutions lead to inclusive institutions and what is the economic situation there now.

All evidence lead to the fact that settlers creating inclusive institutions hundreds of years ago lead to those places overtaking all the others. Even in regions with high starting GDP/Prosperity/Populations it didn't matter and the inclusive institutions regions overtook the high gdp/population places. All more so that low density population places should be ripe for colonisation and extraction insitution creation but it didn't happen. And example of shitholes from 500 years turning in to economic developed countries are plenty: America, Canada, New Zealand, Australia etc etc. There are plenty of negative examples also like India, places in Africa etc etc etc
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