I agree with @Igor Antunov 's analysis of foreign policy generally but I would say that Trump hates Bibi Netanyahu for personal reasons, and while he is an arch Zionist, he
may make some demand to do some culminating operation against Hamas which ends the genocidal treatment of Palestinians. Of course, he might not do that - he might allow Netanyahu to completely go with the status quo, which basically amounts to ethnic cleansing, but it is doubtful that the whole task will actually be done because of domestic political instability and the fact that the international community will eventually pressure him and the West so much as to make full ethnic cleansing untenable... Yeah, it'll probably be
very bad, though.
I actualy think Kamala Harris would not be able to
handle Netanyahu. She would tepidly oppose him and attempt to manage the situation, but he would generally ignore her while still obtaining aid and pushing the limits. I think he'd eventually be stopped by Kamala, but it would be quite late. She does not have the cajones of Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Bernie Sanders, or even AOC, who I believe would make concrete, immediate demands that would cause Netanyahu to begin wrapping things up...
But yeah, IDK, this is aw ild situation.
Also I thank @noemon for pointing out that the inflation globally is being caused by the Ukraine war - energy prices are soaring, affecting production and transportation.
The war is also particularly disastrous because:
(1) Without firing a shot, we could have probably negotiated an independently observed plebiscite in Luhansk & Donetsk, and theoretically this cold have resulted in them becoming an autonomous region still within Ukraine, an independent nation-state, or a part of Russia. The negotiation process could've taken years. Eventually Trump would maybe come into the office and probably strike a deal that everyone would say is TERRIBLE! for us, but would completely avoid the war and end the saga.
(2) We could have immediately agreed to the terms after the war started or on the eve of the war to cede Luhansk & Donetsk to Russia.
... And Russia would have gotten
LESS LAND, and hundreds of thousands of lives would be saved, and millions would be able to return to their homes on short notice.
But now?
- Russia will have defeated all of NATO in a proxy war.
- Russia will inevitably get more land than what they went in for.
- Russia will have showcased general military competence and their advanced missile arsenal.
And most importantly:
- Russia has become closer than ever with Iran, who now has a super advanced S-400 anti-air system guarding their skies, has their military manufacturing and defense capabilities integrating with Russia to some degree in huge tech exchanges about drones and other fifth generation battlefield tech.
- Russia & China are actively signaling general support for each other - Mearsheimer is horrified by this, observing that not just him but many others all said that the worst thing that could happen for Western geopoltiical interests is Russia & China uniting in the 21st century. That's what happened.
The choices of the American deep state and Biden on this can be said to be exponentially beneficial to the military industrial complex and the deep state foreign policy itself
because it has made Europe permanently dependent on America, but let's also remember... The inflation and economic woes that they have created are what got Trump elected, and this might be detrimental to their long-term influence on Washington if Trump's coalition changes both the Republicans & Democrats, bringing populists who are pacifists (liberal) or isolationist (conservative) to the fore...
It sounds funny saying that but there is a future where Trump's populist right & the Squad's populist left defeat the mainstream conservative & liberal factions that represent some 20th century thought for politics... Which is good for everyone here except the center leftists crying in the comments.
Rancid wrote:Alright, so that's about it. I think this solidifies that we live in a post-truth era.
All there is to do is hope that this stuff about "retribution" and "enemies within" was really just talk however hard to believe it is.
Hot take: the
post-truth era will be more reflective of the actual truth of what is going on than the alleged truth era.
The so-called 'truth' era is simply a fake consensus on domestic politics orchestrated by the major media outlets not called Fox News, and the foreign politics consensus orchestrated by NATO. There is little to no room for dissent because everything that goes against it is just a conspiracy theory, disinformation, or Russian propaganda...
We have left this era because the mainstream English language media has failed to be objective and account for everything going on, and because the Washington / London / Brussels narrative about foreign policy is falling apart.