Russia-Ukraine War 2022 - Page 907 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By litwin
#15328816
JohnRawls wrote:Ukraine and Russia are not the two strongest Slavic nations. Poland has been stronger than Ukraine for sure and stronger than Russia for a while now with Russia trying to self-destruct itself with the Putins Ukranian adventure.


this is what ended the soviet empire ... its back :lol:

Image

Oh Dear, convert 41.5Tn Rubles to USD$ and you see the total budget is only $420 Billion
Superpower? :lol:
#15328835
Rich wrote:Poland owes its strength to Adolph Hitler and Joseph Stalin.

This is of course one of the many ironies of history, because for a time Hitler and the international Communist movement came together in a great love in. Hitler and Stalin conspired to create the fourth partition, which they full intended to be the final solution to the Polish question. However it was Hitler's determination to exterminate the Jews and Stalin's backing for the ethnic cleansing of what is now Eastern Poland, that made Poland the cohesive nation state it is today.

:lol: I mean the way the Liberals talk, you'd think it was all the fault of Hitler and the Russians. Most of the Liberals being such morons that they don't even seem to realise that Stalin was Georgian not Russian. That the Poles, Jews, Lithuanians, Slovakians, Belarussians, Ruthenians and Ukrainians were all just going to sit down and sing kumbaya together, if hadn't been for that evil Hitler and those evil Russians, Stalin, Trotsky, Dzerzhinsky etc.


Poland owes it's strength to its own people and country. You are trying to downplay the fact that it's Russia that celebrates it's independence day from Poland... Historically Poland was the top dog in town. So it's happening again is nothing new.
#15328969
Rancid wrote:@Igor Antunov congratulations, your boy Putin did it.


We live in a world where a non-existent ethnic minority in East Ukraine has more of a right to self-determine than the 95% majority of the same area as well as more of a right to self-determine than an occupied territory with 100% ethnic composure like Gaza.

More hilariously, the US, EU and Ukraine have already signed away the Donbass to Russia in Minsk twice.

Try and explain if you can, why do Albanian drug lords have more of a right to self-determine in Serbia, than Russians have a right to self-determine in the Donbass?
User avatar
By litwin
#15328970
In four months, Saudi extraction rose from two million to 10 million barrels a day, and prices plummeted from $32 a barrel to $10. For the USSR’s economy - already accustomed to exorbitant incomes from its oil, this was a death blow. in 1986 alone, the USSR lost more than $20 billion (approximately 7.5% of the USSR’s annual income), and it already had a budget deficit.

But Saudi Arabia’s economy was also punished because of the low prices! Why did they do it? Allen’s opinion is that Casey offered the sheiks financial reparations in exchange for the move; this opinion is backed up by the fact that in 1986, 80% of Saudi oil was sold through Exxon, Mobil, Texaco, and Chevron – all American companies.

The Soviet Union plunged into recession following the 1985-1986 oil crisis. It was enough for the already unhealthy, command-style Soviet economy to crumble. In 1986, USSR’s external loans were about $30 billion; by 1989 they had reached $50 billion.


The oil crisis significantly helped the US win the Cold War against the USSR: the economic recession led Mikhail Gorbachev to make hugely unpopular political decisions. An attempt to reform the governmental system (known as Perestroika) was largely hopeless due to the lack of funds. Gorbachev’s populist rhetoric didn’t play well with an impoverished population. They demanded responsibility for the government’s short-sighted actions, and that’s when Boris Yeltsin came in with his harsh critique of the Soviet system at large. By the end of the 1980s, the collapse of the Soviet empire was all but inevitable.

#15328972
Rancid wrote:@JohnRawls, looks like Ukraine is cooked. What do you think?

@Igor Antunov congratulations, your boy Putin did it.


We will see, Trump definitely complicates things but Russia is pretty shit position economically and militarily nowadays. Depends what happens I guess during the negotiations now?
#15328978
Curiously enough, I'm not that worried about Ukraine. We'll see.

Clearly Igor puts high hopes on Trump. So much so that he showed up for the first time in years. :lol:

He might be seriously disappointed.
User avatar
By litwin
#15329002
Rugoz wrote:Curiously enough, I'm not that worried about Ukraine. We'll see.

Clearly Igor puts high hopes on Trump. So much so that he showed up for the first time in years. :lol:

He might be seriously disappointed.

THIS IS HOW I SEE / understand Trump`s victory strategy . 1. he wants to stop the war- war (giving Moscow empire 20% of Ukraine ) . 2. Moscow occupation will not be recognized by UN . 3. Trump will make with KSA ( Reagan´s act) a " sweet deal" bring down oil price to 30$ , which will crash down Moscow empire in 2 years ( maybe even less ) .
Am I correct ?

In four months, Saudi extraction rose from two million to 10 million barrels a day, and prices plummeted from $32 a barrel to $10. For the USSR’s economy - already accustomed to exorbitant incomes from its oil, this was a death blow. in 1986 alone, the USSR lost more than $20 billion (approximately 7.5% of the USSR’s annual income), and it already had a budget deficit.

But Saudi Arabia’s economy was also punished because of the low prices! Why did they do it? Allen’s opinion is that Casey offered the sheiks financial reparations in exchange for the move; this opinion is backed up by the fact that in 1986, 80% of Saudi oil was sold through Exxon, Mobil, Texaco, and Chevron – all American companies.

The Soviet Union plunged into recession following the 1985-1986 oil crisis. It was enough for the already unhealthy, command-style Soviet economy to crumble. In 1986, USSR’s external loans were about $30 billion; by 1989 they had reached $50 billion.

Saudi Arabian oil prices gradually recovered until the early 2000s when they finally reached profitability again, but the Saudi government didn’t seem to care much, as they likely had massive sovereign funds saved from the hyper profitable 1970s. The US predictably profited: in 1986, American gas stations even gave away free petrol for advertising.

The oil crisis significantly helped the US win the Cold War against the USSR: the economic recession led Mikhail Gorbachev to make hugely unpopular political decisions. An attempt to reform the governmental system (known as Perestroika) was largely hopeless due to the lack of funds. Gorbachev’s populist rhetoric didn’t play well with an impoverished population. They demanded responsibility for the government’s short-sighted actions, and that’s when Boris Yeltsin came in with his harsh critique of the Soviet system at large. By the end of the 1980s, the collapse of the Soviet Union was all but inevitable.
#15329018
Your promises of victory are worthless whether its about US elections or Ukrainian victories.
JohnRawls wrote:Well the election is really close -> My prediction still stands Democrats/Kamala win the election but I think that downgrading perhaps from large margin described on page 1 it seems to be a bit closer so I am not sure if I should change that. I am kind off undecided, there are many global factors in favour of Kamala and inflation is against her I suppose but less so than for Biden I think.

I really don't know, on one side i wanna say still large Margin for Kamala but on the other it seems its gonna be a not so large margin... What should I consider more important global factors or the polls? I always looked more at global factors while polls were more or less be damned be it with Trump or Biden before hmmmm.

Alrights lets go Kamala/Democrats win with large margin than anyone of you expect.


This post was made the 2nd of May 2022.
JohnRawls wrote:Well Endless war means that basically. It is the timeframe between Ukraine takes it back and now. Some time will need to pass before that happens. Be it 3-6-12 months or 2 years. Realistically Russia has money for months after oil/gas embargo takes effect. They can stretch it to lets say 12 months although the number is hard to calculate. Oil embargo hasn't happened yet but around new year or after next winter it definitely will that is a certainty. The faster, the better in this sense.

Russian military resources are not limitless and dying out fast. There was a study that Russia can realistically only scavange together 3 thousand tanks from all of their stockpiles and send to the front. May be 4 thousand if they try really, really hard but even scavenging that 3 thousand requires resources that Russia currently lacks be it parts and so on. Russia already has problems with material and it will continue getting worse and worse. When that military problems buckles is a also a hard question.

There is too much uncertainty right now in this regard. Sure the best thing that could happen that Ukraine launches a counter offensive in june/july at some point and pushes Russia out but I am a bit pessimistic in a sense that I doubt that it will go so smoothly as just a steamroll.

It is really hard to say right now what will buckle first in Russia be it public opinion, economy, military and so on. There are many pressure points building up right now.

My highlighting. 3, 6, 12 months, 2 years, all these time frames have come and gone. If anything the idea of Ukraine regaining all of its territory is even more of a joke than it was in May 22.
By Rich
#15329034
So my understanding is that Donald Trump said he could solve Ukraine in 24 hours, even before he acceded to the Presidency. Well surprise, surprise, its nearly 24 hours since he made his victory speech, that was never going to happen. Now there is no guarantee that Trump will or can bring peace to the Ukraine, but if he's to have realistic chance he will need the loyal backing of all the European leaders. The first step is to cut off all aid to Ukraine, until Zelensky is brought to heel. The idea that Zelensky can lead the negotiations is utterly ridiculous. The idea that the Zelensky regime can lead the West's response to Russia is uttelry demented and the most shameful abdication of moral responsibility. Its rights cretinsim taken to a new level.

The second stage when Zelensky has been brought to heel and learnt his place in the western order is to ask Putin nicely for an immediate ceasefire. Trump will need to command a big carrot in terms of recognition of captured territory, sanctions relief, return of stolen assets etc. But if Putin wants to continue the war then we need to be ready with a very heavy stick in terms of massively and rapidly increased support for Ukraine.

I have outlined what should happen, but I doubt that is what will happen. Putin has rapidly escalated the efforts to advance over the last few months. That's because he feared a possible Trump presidency would not just allow the war to drag on with an unlimited timetable. Clearly he's tried to grab what land he can before Trump comes to power. Now I'm sure Putin's preferred course is to continue the war, but with Ukraine receiving substantially reduced support. His best help in achieving this course is Zelensky and his intransigent western cheer leaders. If they're so intent on continuing the war. If they are all so set against, what they will call "capitulation" why should Trump go out of his way to try and end the war? Already western leaders are seeking to undermine Trump by announcing more aid to Ukraine, rather having all the aid behind one on / off switch, to maximise the leverage over both Ukraine and Russia.
#15329037
wat0n wrote:When will Kiev finally fall, @Igor Antunov?


I don't know but those iranian militias keep falling on it every day.

But seriously, it fell in 2014, millions of Ukrainians perished as a result. Ukraine will be liberated in the coming years. The momentum is inescapable. Russia went from Blitzkrieg to steady attrition warfare which highly favors the one with superior firepower. The usual suspects can't compete. Funding is about to dry up. Bidet is fast tracking another $6 billion into zelenskys pockets, and that's the last of it. Ukraine needs $60+ billion/year to sustain its meat grinder, EU can't pick up the slack. It's hoever. It's joever. It's finally Trumpening. We finally Putin an end to this little coup.

And how bout dat hilarious kursk lolffensive. All objectives failed, lost half of the meager gains. Like stepping on your neighbors lawn after he burns your house and murders half your criminal family. Now only one foot on the lawn and nothing achieved. Well, it accelerated Russia's donbass offensive.
#15329062
Igor Antunov wrote:I don't know but those iranian militias keep falling on it every day.

But seriously, it fell in 2014, millions of Ukrainians perished as a result. Ukraine will be liberated in the coming years. The momentum is inescapable. Russia went from Blitzkrieg to steady attrition warfare which highly favors the one with superior firepower. The usual suspects can't compete. Funding is about to dry up. Bidet is fast tracking another $6 billion into zelenskys pockets, and that's the last of it. Ukraine needs $60+ billion/year to sustain its meat grinder, EU can't pick up the slack. It's hoever. It's joever. It's finally Trumpening. We finally Putin an end to this little coup.

And how bout dat hilarious kursk lolffensive. All objectives failed, lost half of the meager gains. Like stepping on your neighbors lawn after he burns your house and murders half your criminal family. Now only one foot on the lawn and nothing achieved. Well, it accelerated Russia's donbass offensive.


Ah yes, the same old story we hear for 3 years now. Ukraine was already without US support for 3/4th of a year and I don't see much progress.
#15329070
Igor Antunov wrote:Bidet is fast tracking another $6 billion into zelenskys pockets,

Mrs Biden and European leaders are deliberately sabotaging Trump's chances of bringing an early peace. For Trump to bring a quick peace he needs the West united behind him. If he is to force a peace on Zelensky and Putin he needs as big a carrot and as big a stick as possible. Trump must have command of all the aid. The potential military aid to Ukraine is a carrot for Zelensky to accept the Russian annexation of all currently controlled territory and if Zelensky plays ball a stick to beat Putin if he fails to compromise.

The Liberals all out moralistic victory was never achievable, this is part of the reason why.



This is the truth that the lying liberal media wants to conceal from you.
By Rugoz
#15329075
Igor Antunov wrote:EU can't pick up the slack.


What people fail to consider is that the EU could literally just buy those weapons from the US and gift them to Ukraine. Naturally, the EU wants to avoid that and reward its own defense industry, but for a transition period that would be an option.
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By ingliz
#15329100
@wat0n

Peacekeepers are only useful if they are willing to keep the peace. And as can be seen with the UN 'peacekeepers' in Lebanon, they'd rather not.

Will the EU go to war to defend Russian interests?

I think not.


:lol:
By wat0n
#15329103
ingliz wrote:@wat0n

Peacekeepers are only useful if they are willing to keep the peace. And as can be seen with the UN 'peacekeepers' in Lebanon, they'd rather not.

Will the EU go to war to defend Russian interests?

I think not.


:lol:


It doesn't sound like they'd be defending Russian interests though. And they'd act as observers very much like the MFO.
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