[litwin]

Turkey won't support peace plan with territorial concessions, Ukrainian lawmaker says.

https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/18 ... 4751089036

[Rich]

Ukraine will counter attack once/if sufficient resources are stockpiled of Western Equipment. The main objective of which would be restoration of february 23rd borders. Then taking Donbass if possible and then taking Crimea if possible.

If somebody asked me to bet some money on this then I would probably bet on Ukraine managing to drive the Russians back to february 23rd borders and retake some of Donbass/Luhansk which was taken in 2014. Crimea retaking in my opinion is far fetched because I don't see a solution to a simple problem of maintaining logistics there while Russia has air superiority along with the black sea fleet still being intact to some degree.

But then again, it all relies on how fast Western weapons can be built up and supplied. Perhaps the mobilisation will be used to prevent this in a sense that the weapons will be used to fight the mobilisation waves, but it is a pretty stupid strategy since if Western resolve won't fade then Russia is just wasting resources at that point and digging a deaper hole creating a situation when Crimea can also be taken back. And I don't see Western resolve fading away considering the situation and that the West has really very little to loose. After all it is not European or US troops fighting and any economic discomfort can be absorbed.

This was posted on May 7th 2022. My highlighting.

The offensive arrived late and when it did finally arrive failed to take back half of what you promised. Of course what you didn't predict was that with the capture of Kherson in November the Ukrainians would be done in terms of any significant counter offensives. What territory have the Ukrainians recaptured since November 2022? What territory has Ukraine recaptured in the last 2 years? As far as I can make out its 1 or 2 villages south of Velyka Novsilka and even they could well be lost within days.

[JohnRawls]

This was posted on May 7th 2022. My highlighting.

The offensive arrived late and when it did finally arrive failed to take back half of what you promised. Of course what you didn't predict was that with the capture of Kherson in November the Ukrainians would be done in terms of any significant counter offensives. What territory have the Ukrainians recaptured since November 2022? What territory has Ukraine recaptured in the last 2 years? As far as I can make out its 1 or 2 villages south of Velyka Novsilka and even they could well be lost within days.

It is like you ignored the whole post itself. It has the caveat that the West provides enough weapons, we barely provided to what we could have. Our stockpiles are full of equipment still there, doing nothing. Be it from thousands of Tanks or APCs to even stockpiles to ammunition that we don't need right now and are all there "just in case".

And it is not only a problem of one specific country. USA, France, Britain, Germany, Italy etc all have large stockpiles that are sitting around and not even being used by active military. All of those stockpiles are in the thousands. We literally have thousands of Abrams tanks and Leopards and other equipment in the thousands that does nothing. Same goes for planes by the way, like f-16 also in large quantities sitting around doing nothing but at least here I agree that pilots need to be trained.

If we really wanted to, we could have matched Russia Tank for Tank and APC for APC 1 to 1. We just didn't. Now a cynic might say that this is going according to how it was strategically envisioned to go but not all countries would definitely agree to this if being up for a vote. So its up in the air why this never happened, be it caution, plan or incompetence its irrelevant now. We have what we have. There are no IFs in history.

[Rich]

This was from a few weeks ago but I thought it was worth including.

So the good is that he unequivocally supports war with China if it tries to take Taiwan. However even this is spoilt by his trips to China. When it comes both to Israel and Ukraine, I think the bancruptcy of his world view is exposed. His, Realism doesn't talk about internal affairs and civil wars is a cop out. A realist solution for Israel would /will have to include large amounts of ethnic cleansing, regardless of how morally palatable people think that is. I don't know if Israel will succeed in ethnically cleansing northern Gaza and replacing with Jewish settlements, but if they do they will have significantly improved their geo strategic position. He dresses up Islamophillic moralism as realism.

On Ukraine, while I agree that talking about Ukraine joining NATO back in 2008, was silly I don't think that was the taproot of the conflict. Its like Czechoslovakia. At its formation, getting to a nation state was always likely to produce violence, even of there had been no Hitler and no Stalin. The same with Ukraine, another state of nations. It was never likely to evolve into a nation state without violence. Separation from Russia was always likely to end in violence.

[Negotiator]

Boris Johnson admits its a proxy war.

Wow, this has got to be one of the most ‘saying the quiet part out loud’ statements since the start of the Ukraine war.
Boris Johnson: ‘Mate, let’s face it… We’re waging a proxy war! We’re waging a proxy war but we’re not giving our proxies he ability to do the job. And for years and years we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs and it has been cruel. It has been cruel and moral…’

Other than that I'm just amazed how much Johnson gets wrong. He gets almost EVERYTHING wrong.

For heavens sake, he even gets Trump wrong.

I dont get why he thinks Trump will be of any help with Ukraine. Trump ran as peace candidate.

Trump made this promise that he could end the conflict in 24 hours. True, this might easily have been possible in the earlier stages of the war. But now Russia is about to win, so why would they now stop for one of these western deals that always include a frozen conflict, just so the west can rearm Ukriane and continue the conflict later ?

IMHO literally the best Trump can do in this situation is to just leave Ukraine to the EU. There is no way for Trump to score any win in regards to Ukraine, so leave it behind and focus on issues where he can actually have success.




Very, very interesting short interview:

https://rumble.com/v5typ7k-oleksiy-ares ... src_v1_upp

So even back then leading ukrainians not only planned for war, but wanted the war. And had this strange delusion there was a chance for them to win.

But HOW ?!?!?

You want to win against the leading military nation that literally focuses too much on military stuff with some equipment from the west that you

(a) havent trained for and

(b) is sometimes literally museum stuff from the 1950s (Leopard I tanks from Germany) and never the actually current stuff

The idea to NOT cross red lines of Russia, just fulfill Minsk 2 and thus have peace with Russia apparently never even occured to them.

[Negotiator]

It is like you ignored the whole post itself. It has the caveat that the West provides enough weapons, we barely provided to what we could have. Our stockpiles are full of equipment still there, doing nothing. [...]

These stockpiles you speak only exist in the delusion of some people. Not in reality.

Just as an example, the most important western stockpile of all is artillery ammunition, I think it was called 155mm ? And Biden had to announce in summer 2023 that this specific stockpile - is empty. Ever since we can only send Ukraine current production. Not even fully current production, because Israel is now also demanding arming.

And, spoiler alert: its the same with everything else.

Quite frankly if sanity was any part in the planning of this war, they would have tried to negotiate with Russia at the latest in summer 2023. But they want to blame the failure of Ukraine on Trump.

And yes, sure, the west has some more "wonder weapons" they could put into the trashcan called Ukraine. And some indeed might be "game changers"; after all some of the previously send weapons have been game changers. Whats needed however is outcome changers. Those dont exist.

What you need to win a war is a number of different weapon types working together, with soldiers who sometimes need five years of training before being fully qualified (thats fighter jets), though even then not yet best trained. Thats what Russia has. Thats not at all the state of the ukrainian military.

[ingliz]

1983 and all that ...

It has been reported that Germany and the Nordic nations are rebuilding their civil defence infrastructure, abandoned after the Cold War, and urging their civilian population to prepare for war.

[Rich]

I haven't watched all of this and what I have watched I didn't find totally easy to follow.

It seems Zelensky will accept a ceasefire and temporary Russian occupation in return for NATO membership. He seems to be in deep trouble. His losing ground and seems to want a ceasefire as soon as possible. But getting NATO membership will not be a quick process even if its achievable at all. Zelensky's advantage is that although they've sped up, Russian advances still remain slow. I still don't think they've even reached a 1000km² yet.

[ingliz]

@Rich

Usually, when a front collapses it collapses in a heap and quickly. So maybe Zelensky has been briefed by his military and things are worse than they appear.

[Rich]

Usually, when a front collapses it collapses in a heap and quickly. So maybe Zelensky has been briefed by his military and things are worse than they appear.

That certainly can happen and I don't doubt that Zelensky and his western leaders are worried about such a possibility. That does not mean that it is likely let alone certain. This war has shown a remarkable stability since November 2022.

Note even in World War 1, having lost the allies and being under the most incredible strain still the German western front did not collapse prior to the armistice. On the Eastern Front it took the Russian Revolution and the October insurrection to dissolve the Russian front. I would suggest that in Normandy it was Hitler's response to Cobra that led to the collapse of the line in France and the rout to the border. So I think historically collapses, without very bad leadership by the defending side are less common than popularly imagined.

It is not clear yet what the full effects of drones will be on warfare, but my guess would be that will advantage the defender more than the attacker. Russia has a manpower, equipment and ammunition advantage. But that advantage is very far form overwhelming. Hence we see vast stretches of the Ukraine Russian border unexploited by the Russians, not to mention the Belarus-Ukraine and the Transdnieper-Ukraine borders.

[litwin]

@Rich

Usually, when a front collapses it collapses in a heap and quickly. So maybe Zelensky has been briefed by his military and things are worse than they appear.

Is it game over for Moscow & Iranian empires in " Syria" ? and where is the COWARD ASSAD?


Moscow is closing all its bases in the provinces of Aleppo, Hama, and Deir ez-Zor and fleeing to the Khmeimim airbase on the Mediterranean coast.”




https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1862938341928267813

https://x.com/i/status/1862943408127381692

[litwin]

That certainly can happen and I don't doubt that Zelensky and his western leaders are worried about such a possibility. That does not mean that it is likely let alone certain. This war has shown a remarkable stability since November 2022.

Note even in World War 1, having lost the allies and being under the most incredible strain still the German western front did not collapse prior to the armistice. On the Eastern Front it took the Russian Revolution and the October insurrection to dissolve the Russian front. I would suggest that in Normandy it was Hitler's response to Cobra that led to the collapse of the line in France and the rout to the border. So I think historically collapses, without very bad leadership by the defending side are less common than popularly imagined.

It is not clear yet what the full effects of drones will be on warfare, but my guess would be that will advantage the defender more than the attacker. Russia has a manpower, equipment and ammunition advantage. But that advantage is very far form overwhelming. Hence we see vast stretches of the Ukraine Russian border unexploited by the Russians, not to mention the Belarus-Ukraine and the Transdnieper-Ukraine borders.

Free Syrian army has taken Hama, Syria’s 4th-largest city with a population of 1M Maskal/Iranian rats are on the run.


https://x.com/i/status/1862938259384361261

[Yaqum]

Because of Putin's shenanigans in Ukraine, his allies are suffering; first the Armenians, now the Syrians.

[litwin]

Because of Putin's shenanigans in Ukraine, his allies are suffering; first the Armenians, now the Syrians.

great point , ( small edition , the majority "Syrians" have always been against Assad/Iran-Moscow empires )


this pic. is pure gold



where is this war - criminal Assad ?

head of Syrian intelligence, Brigadier General Hossam Louka, is allegedly attempting to organize a coup against Bashar al-Assad in Damascus
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/18 ... 9716878668

[Potemkin]

Because of Putin's shenanigans in Ukraine, his allies are suffering; first the Armenians, now the Syrians.

Precisely the sort of outcome the West was hoping to achieve by maintaining this proxy war. One cannot fault their strategy, risky though it may be.

[litwin]

Precisely the sort of outcome the West was hoping to achieve by maintaining this proxy war. One cannot fault their strategy, risky though it may be.

you misspelled Moscow & Iranian criminal empires

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1862868362566443055

[Potemkin]

you misspelled Moscow & Iranian criminal empires

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1862868362566443055

No, I mean the Western criminal empires.

[litwin]

No, I mean the Western criminal empires.

you are lying of cos. still, why the dirty rat (Muscovite- Islamic Iranian ) imperialists are on the run from " Syria" ?

https://x.com/i/status/1862938259384361261

https://x.com/i/status/1862943408127381692

[litwin]

[Negotiator]

Its really ironic that Germany, of all times, wants to NOW rebuild its military.

Because building military goods like tanks is .... ENERGY INTENSIVE.

And guess whats right now super expensive in Europe, especially in Germany. All thanks to current german politics.

Stupid does stupid, thats all there is to say about the current german "elites".