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By Rugoz
#14987213
B0ycey wrote:Well Tusk was correct. There is a special place in Hell for "No Plan" Brexiteers. The backbenches of the right wing of Parliament. They are no use to anyone.


As far as I can tell EU-philes are of no use to anyone either. Beren is making penis jokes and you are pretending Tusk's language is appropriate at that level.
By B0ycey
#14987217
Rugoz wrote:As far as I can tell EU-philes are of no use to anyone either. Beren is making penis jokes and you are pretending Tusk's language is appropriate at that level.


I have no opinion on Tusks comments actually. It was misunderstood by the British Press and was said with the purpose to create a reaction. So it fulfilled its objective.

Nonetheless the throw away comment is no worse than Hunt comparing the EU to the Gulags, or Johnsons gaff with Italian Prosecco or him comparing the EU to Hitler or Napoleon.

However it is wrong to say that the "EU-philes having no use. The solutions are in their hands so are completely useful if they were actually listened to. They hold the answers and it isn't their fault May is ignoring them.

Also a Brexit without a manifesto is a Brexit with no plan. If parliament has no mandate they have the legitimate right to frustrate parliament if it's against their constituents interests. That is UK democracy. Perhaps only compromise with another referendum on the table will provide the final answer to the Brexit debate.
Last edited by B0ycey on 10 Feb 2019 11:38, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
By Tainari88
#14987218
Beren wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z_aax7_QkY
Good night, PoFo! 8)


I could not sleep and it is 4 in the morning over here....this made me LAUGH so hard.

Thank you Beren!
User avatar
By Beren
#14987225
The beauty of British parliamentary democracy: old British honourable fart seems really concerned about the special place in hell that may just be waiting for him. :evil:



Also:

The Guardian wrote:Boris Johnson has suggested that leaving the EU will allow us to dismantle green standards for electrical goods and environmental impact assessments. Iain Duncan Smith has pressed for the removal after Brexit of the carbon floor price, which has more or less stopped coal-burning in the UK.

With Liam Fox in charge of trade policy, and the US demanding the destruction of food and environmental standards as the price of the trade deal he desperately seeks, nothing is safe. A joint trade review by the British and Indian governments contemplates reducing standards on pesticide residues in food, and hormone-disrupting chemicals in the plastics used in toys. This must be heartening for Jacob Rees-Mogg (known in some circles as Re-smog), who has proposed that we might accept “emission standards from India”, one of the most polluted nations on Earth. “We could say, if it’s good enough in India, it’s good enough for here.”

Why disaster capitalists are praying for a no-deal Brexit

Tainari88 wrote:I could not sleep and it is 4 in the morning over here....this made me LAUGH so hard.

Thank you Beren!

You're welcome, my lady! :)
User avatar
By Beren
#14987259
The Guardian wrote:Theresa May could win parliament’s approval for her controversial Brexit deal in return for guaranteeing another referendum, under a new plan being drawn up by a cross-party group of MPs. The new vote would give the British people a simple choice: to confirm the decision or stay in the EU.

The initiative, aimed at breaking the political impasse, is being advanced by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and has won the support of prominent Remainers in the Tory party including Sarah Wollaston, Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry.

Kyle says the idea, which is likely to be put forward as an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill, is also being taken seriously by “people at a high level in government” as a potential way to resolve the Brexit crisis.

The amendment would offer all MPs the chance to support, or abstain on, the withdrawal bill and would specify that, if passed, the decision would be implemented on the condition it was put to the public for approval in a second referendum.

If the amendment passed through parliament but the deal was rejected in the subsequent referendum, the UK would stay in the EU under current arrangements.

If, however, the British people confirmed the decision of MPs to leave the EU under the terms of May’s deal, Brexit on these terms would immediately come into effect without any need for it to return to parliament.

Seems like a somewhat reasonable proposal to prevent no-deal and put an end to the impasse.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#14987424
UK GDP fell 0.4% in December

Remember December is the month when UK businesses started launching Brexit contingency measures. Just the contingency measures are putting UK economy in decline. What do you think Brexit itself will do? What if it is a hard Brexit?

The Office for National Statistics reports that GDP shrank by 0.4% in the final month of 2018. That’s worse than expected -- economists had predicted that the economy might have flatlined during the month.

This will intensify fears that Britain’s economy is suffering from Brexit anxiety, the trade war between the US and China, and weakness in the eurozone (where Italy has fallen into recession).
By Atlantis
#14987428
B0ycey wrote:I have no opinion on Tusks comments actually. It was misunderstood by the British Press and was said with the purpose to create a reaction. So it fulfilled its objective.


No, it wasn't misunderstood. Tusk's statement was deliberately misquoted by the media and by MPs to provoke a hostile reaction just like the Brexitters have deliberately and systematically misrepresented everything about the EU for decades. They'll have to face the bill now, or more precisely, the country they have hitchhiked will have to pay the bill.

According to the Brexitters, freed from the shackles of the EU, global Britain would be able to flourish like of old. By the time Britain would leave the EU, new ambitious trade deals would be prepared and ready for signature with countries around the world. The EU would beg for a deal and all major trading nations would line up eager to do deals with the UK.

That always was a lie, a complete fantasy without any substance, and totally unlikely to happen. The EU as a bigger trading block will always get better trading conditions then a single country like the UK.

Now, another Brexit lie is about to crash like a red bus into a stony wall of tough trade negotiators who will use the UK's weakness to extort more advantageous conditions for themselves.

Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU, and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group.

Struggle

The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal – a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 – highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better.

Source


If the UK crashes out without a deal, Japanese car makers can close their factories in Britain because with the new EU-Japan free trade deal (reducing tariffs on cars to zero), it'll be cheaper to import them from Japan than from Britain.

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User avatar
By ingliz
#14987431
Atlantis wrote:According to the Brexiteers, freed from the shackles of the EU, global Britain would be able to flourish like of old.

It seems not.

‘No deal’ and WTO rules.


:|
By Atlantis
#14987571
ingliz wrote:It seems not.

‘No deal’ and WTO rules.


:|


Thanks, good read!

Leading Brexiters assert confidently that World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would allow the UK to trade with the EU on current terms for up to ten years. They say that the UK could leave the EU on 29th March with no deal and, from a trade perspective, nothing much would change. Unfortunately, it is a false claim that seems designed to encourage people to think that a no-deal ‘WTO Brexit’ would be manageable.

A preferential trade deal with the EU, the UK’s largest trading partner, will be essential in a post Brexit world. The UK would gain nothing by going to WTO rules, and then trying to negotiate a deal. ‘Going to WTO’ would not only severely damage the UK economy but it would surrender the UK’s negotiating leverage to the EU.


Any trade negotiator will know this. T. May's bluff just makes her look stupid.
User avatar
By Ter
#14987595
Project Fear is in full swing...

It seems to me that the EU members in general, and Germany in particular, are very sorry to see the UK leave, and they are applying all their influence to sabotage Brexit.

The UK would gain nothing by going to WTO rules, and then trying to negotiate a deal.

Well, they would regain their independence from the Brussels Eurocrats, that is not nothing , and they will be able to control their own borders.
By Atlantis
#14987624
Oh @Ter, we are long past that, the discussion has moved on.

Let Tusk take you to this special place.

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By Ter
#14987629
Atlantis wrote:Oh @Ter, we are long past that, the discussion has moved on.

I don't think so, the powers in charge are desperate to sabotage any Brexit.
The whining and wailing goes on in full force.
I think the EU and the Europhile arse-lickers are very frightened that the UK might do well after leaving the club.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#14987630
@Atlantis @Ingliz

Actually the situation is a bit dire for UK. Let me quote you some statistics. Exports of goods and services make around 31% of the UK gdp. For comparison this number for Germany is 47%. This is the place where the need for the EU comes from.

So in a nightmare scenario if all exports are cut and factories/services shut down then UK will loose 31% of its gdp while Germany will loose 47%. EU makes sure that those number remain stable, in a sense there is no way to cut this GDP from export via external means.

So lets do some math. UK is one the largest importers of German goods and services that average around 6.8-7% of german total exports of goods and services. This adds up to 3.4-3.5 of germany gdp. (A bit less)
Now if we calculate UK. Without throwing massive numbers we know that EU makes around 45% of good exports and around 40% of services export. We need to adjust this number a bit because a lot of the exports go through the EU to Switserland, Norway, etc -> basically countries that are not part of the EU but require EU permission to a degree to import/export goods since they are linked to the common market or otherwise are not accessible because EU surrounds them.

So if we adjust that then around 55-60% of goods exports and 60-65% of services exports are linked directly or indirectly to the EU. Lets round it up to 60%. A WTO deal will put a large chunk of those under threat. (May be even majority, depending on the tarifs etc) So if we do the math 0.6*0.31 = 0.186*100= 18.6% of UK total gdp

18.6 of UKs gdp is a large number compared to 3.4 of German gdp.

This doesn't even considers the usage of EU trade deals. So it is very complicated for the UK. In a sense UKs is gambling with 31% of its GDP and thinks it can increase that number for some reason. But definately not in the short or medium term. There are 3 massive buyers of Goods in the world.
1) The American Market
2) The European Market
3) The Japanese Market
The rest of the world are insignificant compared to the 3 in the grand scheme of things. Ultimately these 3 markets set the prices for goods by the virtue of wanting to buy the goods or not.

Statistics taken from home office and World Bank mostly.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#14987739
JohnRawls wrote:UK GDP fell 0.4% in December

Remember December is the month when UK businesses started launching Brexit contingency measures. Just the contingency measures are putting UK economy in decline. What do you think Brexit itself will do? What if it is a hard Brexit?

Very funny. :lol:

Guess which economy couldn't fall by 0.4% to 0.2% growth in the forth quarter because it was already at 0.2% in the third?

And tangentially, to paraphrase you from a while back, the problem of major EU economies at the moment is that they don't grow faster than the UK. Clearly proof of decline!
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#14987778
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Very funny. :lol:

Guess which economy couldn't fall by 0.4% to 0.2% growth in the forth quarter because it was already at 0.2% in the third?

And tangentially, to paraphrase you from a while back, the problem of major EU economies at the moment is that they don't grow faster than the UK. Clearly proof of decline!


So your defense is that if somebody else is doing shit then we are okay? Thats not much of a defense honestly.(Unless there is a global crysis i guess which there is none at the moment) Estonia grew by 4.5 percent. Germany was in negative growth during summer mostly related to them being an export based economy while the global market was in a downturn so their export are in a downturn. (Also US tariffs dispute take a small toll)

Bottom line being that countries have different dependencies in Europe. Some will grow and some will not. Overall the EU is growing.

UK was mostly loosing growth over every quarter though until it reached the point in December. There was no particular underlying factor that could have caused this besides Brexit instability.
By layman
#14987783
Germany’s slowdown is not good news for the uk just like the uks impending crash is not good news for Germany. The difference is that one is blatantly related to brexit. Anyone who blames collapsing investment, falling currency, falling growth and fleeing business on coincidence is a cretin. Anyone who claims it will be fine once “uncertainty” is gone is a simpleton.

Talking of simpletons, David Davis claimed a 20 percent fall in the pound in the event of a no deal would be good because, exports. It’s a point worthy of a 12 year old. Boris followed up by saint “the pound will go where it goes”.

We are dealing with extremists here on both sides of the house. The crisis capitalists want a return to 19th century laissez faire - even when business don’t. Meanwhile, The Marxists of Corbyn side want a Tory induced recession so they can rebuild the uk as a socialist utopia.

Meanwhile my visa application is making good progress ...
By Atlantis
#14987786
@JohnRawls, thanks for the quantitative analysis. Now to the qualitative analysis. If tariffs are introduced, that doesn't mean that trade comes to an end. A 10% tariff on cars will make the price for consumer higher, but most manufactures, especially high value manufacturers, will manage. They will adjust their costing accordingly. Even if sales dip a bit it won't be a catastrophe.

So exports will manage. What will suffer is the international supply chains. And non-tariff barriers will have a greater impact in this than tariffs. This will force many companies to redirect their investments. Since the EU market is bigger than the UK market, the relocation of business will be primarily from the UK to the EU and not vice versa.

So whatever loss the EU may experience due to Brexit may well be compensated for by investment redirected from the UK to the EU.

I have lost count of the hundreds of companies that have announced their plans to relocate out off the UK. Nissan, Ford and Airbus are just the latest examples.

Ford has become the latest carmaker to sound the alarm over Brexit, saying that it is stepping up preparations to move production out of Britain.

The business, which has 13,000 staff in the UK, told the prime minister on a private call with business leaders that it was preparing alternative sites abroad.

The warning comes after Nissan announced last week that it was cancelling plans to build a new model in its Sunderland plant, a decision that it attributed in part to Brexit uncertainty.

During the call Theresa May confirmed reports that the government was preparing a package of financial support for businesses affected by a no-deal Brexit but declined to elaborate.

Another participant said that other companies delivered the same warning as Ford. “The general message was that this isn’t about contingencies any more — we are taking steps already because of the uncertainty. It’s real.”

Carolyn Fairbairn, head of the Confederation of British Industry, told Mrs May that a no-deal Brexit would be a “monumental act of self-harm”. “Our members are getting desperate, I feel we can’t pull our punches,” she said.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has said that businesses are being left to “hang out to dry” by Brexit uncertainty. The group, which represents 75,000 companies employing six million people, has demanded answers to 20 questions covering “fundamental aspects of how companies operate”. These include whether they will need to pay tariffs on imported goods, if they’ll be able to move skilled workers between the UK and EU after Brexit day or how trade over the Irish border will be conducted.

The BCC warned that growing uncertainties over Brexit had already had a chilling effect on the economy, stifling investment and causing some of its members to lose overseas customers.

Its bleak assessment of the economic damage being wrought by the paralysis in Westminster came as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, delivered his strongest warning yet on the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. “We should not be under any illusions — no-deal Brexit would be a shock for this economy and send a signal globally about the prospects of refounding globalisation,” he said at an event in the City organised by the Financial Times.

He also said that the right Brexit deal could be the “first test of a new global order” and a possible means to “broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability”.

“There is a very real risk that a lack of clear, actionable information from government will leave firms, their people and their communities hung out to dry,” Adam Marshall, director-general of the BCC, said. “It is little wonder that many firms have been holding back on investment, stockpiling, and even opening offices and moving operations and jobs elsewhere. The imperative remains to avoid a messy and disorderly exit on March 29, but businesses need answers they can base decisions on, no matter the outcome. The lack of clear, precise answers is now causing real damage to many businesses, and to the wider economy.”

A spokesman for the government said that the “best way to support our economy, protects jobs and provide certainty for businesses” is to back the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement.

Source


@Kaiserschmarrn, the UK had the greatest loss of growth. From the top of the list of OECD countries it dropped to the very bottom. The German economy is not in recession, as has been erroneously claimed, growth has been revised downward because of the international trade war, which has resulted in less demand, particularly in China.

@Ter, don't worry, the EU is indestructible.



Perhaps they should have used that at Grenfell Tower.
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By Nonsense
#14987787
Atlantis #14987786

" So whatever loss the EU may experience due to Brexit may well be compensated for by investment redirected from the UK to the EU".

Losses of trade are probably less important in the immediate future than the flow of goods & services between the E.U & U.K.

If the E.U experiences more 'investment', as opposed to 'transfers' of business operations for the purpose of regulations in the E.U, then, that is not something necessarily negative, because the purpose of 'investment', is to obtain a return on capital, the remissions, of which, are repatriated to the U.K side of the business.

It would be diferent if the whole business moved to the E.U, but that would damage a company's trade to the U.K & company or personal customers might adopt a negative attitude to companies that have been 'opportunistic', by moving to the E.U.

Had the E.U not been dogmatic about immigration, free movement from 'Third Countries', along with many other dislikes, such as creating a superstate, which is really negative to satelite countries of the E.U, then people may well have voted differently in the referendum,but it's too late now & the people will deal with the politicians here who think that they rule the roost.
User avatar
By Ter
#14987790
Atlantis wrote:@Ter, don't worry, the EU is indestructible.

Thank you @Atlantis I am happy to read that.
I was getting worried about all the news I see about Hungary, Italy, Poland, Austria, and a couple of other countries, and the anger on the streets in France.
I hope the EU can weather the storm and live without the British contributions to the EU budget.
By Rugoz
#14987890
JohnRawls wrote:UK was mostly loosing growth over every quarter though until it reached the point in December. There was no particular underlying factor that could have caused this besides Brexit instability.


If you make such a claim you have to provide hard evidence. GDP growth fluctuates for all kinds of reasons. It might be due to Brexit, or it might not.
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