Election 2020 - Page 14 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By foxdemon
#15025441
Rugoz wrote:This US cannot effectively disentangle its economy from China while the rest of the world doesn't, unless the US is willing to disentangle itself from the rest of the world as well. There is no global US economic hegemony.

As for the trade deficit, tariffs won't do jack shit when Trump makes record deficits and needs foreign capital to fund it.



Not necessarily, as long as the trade war is limited to the US and China:

Image
Image

https://qz.com/1684207/mexico-canada-an ... trade-war/



That is interesting.

First off, I can’t see long term prospects being good for these smaller countries if both the US and Chinese economies go into recession.

Secondly, it ignores geo-politics. The US is winding back naval control of sea routes not vital to them. EG: telling other nations to guard their own shipping in the Gulf. The global economy had depended on US naval dominance to ensure uninterrupted sea trade. That state of affairs is in question now.

Regarding Australia, the financial sector is a mess at present. I think we are about to lose miracle economy status. Trade figures aren’t the only thing that matters.

I do find it interesting that China is buying gold in such large quantities. Could they be preparing for an attack on the USD status as global reserve currency?
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15025449
foxdemon wrote:That is interesting.

First off, I can’t see long term prospects being good for these smaller countries if both the US and Chinese economies go into recession.

Secondly, it ignores geo-politics. The US is winding back naval control of sea routes not vital to them. EG: telling other nations to guard their own shipping in the Gulf. The global economy had depended on US naval dominance to ensure uninterrupted sea trade. That state of affairs is in question now.

Regarding Australia, the financial sector is a mess at present. I think we are about to lose miracle economy status. Trade figures aren’t the only thing that matters.

I do find it interesting that China is buying gold in such large quantities. Could they be preparing for an attack on the USD status as global reserve currency?


China can't attack the unless it is willing to commit suicide. They are transition right now to a bit different model which is causing problems:
1) Growing middle and upper middle class are annoying the CCP with such things as civil liberties, rights, etc
2) The economic growth in the last 10 years has been fueled by a large debt expansion which had enormous waste. China is most indebted country in the world right now which won't be returned. They are indebted to themselves though so who cares right? (Until all that money burns) There is a price to pay if you Pump trillions of loans in to the economy every year for 10+ years. (Their economic transition is not that successful actually. Its a mixed legacy.)

Meanwhile:

Image

As for the US, we are good friends. We our your SoyBoyz:

Image
By Rugoz
#15025749
JohnRawls wrote:China can't attack the unless it is willing to commit suicide. They are transition right now to a bit different model which is causing problems:
1) Growing middle and upper middle class are annoying the CCP with such things as civil liberties, rights, etc
2) The economic growth in the last 10 years has been fueled by a large debt expansion which had enormous waste. China is most indebted country in the world right now which won't be returned. They are indebted to themselves though so who cares right? (Until all that money burns) There is a price to pay if you Pump trillions of loans in to the economy every year for 10+ years. (Their economic transition is not that successful actually. Its a mixed legacy.)

Meanwhile:


1) I don't see any evidence of that, China is not Hong Kong.
2) We've heard of a supposed bubble for a while now. Note that China is not indebted towards the rest of the world, like other developing countries are/were.

As for that plot, do you have a source? Seems to have much higher numbers than mine.
By Hindsite
#15025756
Rugoz wrote:1) I don't see any evidence of that, China is not Hong Kong.
2) We've heard of a supposed bubble for a while now. Note that China is not indebted towards the rest of the world, like other developing countries are/were.

As for that plot, do you have a source? Seems to have much higher numbers than mine.

I believe Hong Kong is part of China now. I am pretty sure that the trade war will hurt those companies in Honk Kong.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15025786
Hindsite wrote:I believe Hong Kong is part of China now. I am pretty sure that the trade war will hurt those companies in Honk Kong.


That is a complicated question and probably not because Hong Kong is treated differently compared to China at least for US-China trade purposes. HK has special trading status compared to the rest of China which means that tariffs usually do not apply unless stated otherwise.

There is a chance that this status might be removed from Hong Kong if the situation won't improve on the side of China.
User avatar
By colliric
#15026312
Hindsite wrote:I believe Hong Kong is part of China now. I am pretty sure that the trade war will hurt those companies in Honk Kong.


Having been there myself and being of direct Cantonese descent, I categorically state Hong Kong is NOT part of China. I think your opinion is absurd for two reasons:

- Hong Kong is geographically seperated from Mainland China by mountainous terrain, originally it was only accessible by Boat/Sea(especially HK island itself). This is still mostly the case which is the reason why the CCP continues to issue Propaganda about "how great it is that we now have a single train line that managed to be punched through".

- Hong Kong still maintains it's borderline with the mainland, both physical and financial.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15026523
Interesting turn of events tonight has caused me to reconsider my predictions.

The bond market is in bad mojo.

Germany is officially in recession and overseas markets are all but one, down. Asian markets suck.

Hickenlooper has dropped out of the presidential race and could easily unseat a the republican senator in Colorado if he runs.

The president seemed completely out of control in his speech in Pennsylvania.

The president's poll numbers are getting suckier.

So I am calling it a toss up. Biden beats him and maybe Warren. Too close to call.
By Hindsite
#15026525
Drlee wrote:Interesting turn of events tonight has caused me to reconsider my predictions.

The bond market is in bad mojo.

Germany is officially in recession and overseas markets are all but one, down. Asian markets suck.

Hickenlooper has dropped out of the presidential race and could easily unseat a the republican senator in Colorado if he runs.

The president seemed completely out of control in his speech in Pennsylvania.

The president's poll numbers are getting suckier.

So I am calling it a toss up. Biden beats him and maybe Warren. Too close to call.

I don't believe even the Democrats are that dumb. Trump wins again.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15026528
I don't believe even the Democrats are that dumb.


Troll? Do explain what this nonsensical one liner of yours means. I didn't use any big words so there is no excuse for your being confused about what I said.
User avatar
By annatar1914
#15026533
Drlee wrote:Interesting turn of events tonight has caused me to reconsider my predictions.

The bond market is in bad mojo.

Germany is officially in recession and overseas markets are all but one, down. Asian markets suck.

Hickenlooper has dropped out of the presidential race and could easily unseat a the republican senator in Colorado if he runs.

The president seemed completely out of control in his speech in Pennsylvania.

The president's poll numbers are getting suckier.

So I am calling it a toss up. Biden beats him and maybe Warren. Too close to call.


I'm no Hindsite, but I think you should reconsider your reconsideration. Trump is going to win and win big, because of how he's going to play his next moves, which are not in spite of the negative economic news but because of it. It's still a long way off, the 2020 Presidential Election, and I still think Marianne Williamson is going to be the Democratic nominee.
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15026545
A 'settlement' was made between Margaret THATCHER & China in 1997 when Chris PATTEN was the then 'Governor'.
That 'settlement' was a transfer of administrative rights to China,in exchange for Hong Kong retaining the 'Capitalist' economic system for the next 50 years.

My opinion of it, is that it was a 'sell-out' by the Tories, of which the current protest will only get louder.

It takes some believing, that a 'Tory' like THATCHER, could sell out the people of Hong Kong for the continuation of an economic system that preserves the privileges of the rich, better-off & serves to exploit the less affluent.
They exchanged one corrupt system for another(after 50 years), a case of, ' My kingdom, my Kingdom, for a horse'.

It happened, mainly because of the U.K's diminished global reputation as a major power on the world stage, with the implied recognition that China was a growing power on the world stage, ironically, a result of a favourable U.S.A - China relationship in politics & economic affairs.

The USA-China relationship balance has, as TRUMP rightfully acknowledges in the way that only he can express, become so lop-sided, that he sees it as his task to re-balance that situation & he is now using Hong Kong to leverage more advantage from China.
User avatar
By Down East
#15026551
The adults in both the democrat & republican parties took the train for the coast a long time ago. All we have left now are whiny and petulant children posing as leaders.

I didn't vote on the presidential election this past cycle, and will most likely not vote in the next

America is in a very bad place if the Hillary's and Donald's are the best we have to vote on.

I will still vote on my state and local representatives.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15026601
I didn't vote on the presidential election this past cycle, and will most likely not vote in the next


Adults, as you seem to think you are, know that sometimes they have to make hard choices. Even when you have to choose the lesser of two evils. Children run from the responsibility.
User avatar
By BigSteve
#15026611
Drlee wrote:Adults, as you seem to think you are, know that sometimes they have to make hard choices. Even when you have to choose the lesser of two evils. Children run from the responsibility.


To not support anyone is also a choice, and often a difficult one.

You, on the other hand, should just sit back and do what you're told...
User avatar
By jimjam
#15026613
Down East wrote:The adults in both the democrat & republican parties took the train for the coast a long time ago. All we have left now are whiny and petulant children posing as leaders.

I didn't vote on the presidential election this past cycle, and will most likely not vote in the next

America is in a very bad place if the Hillary's and Donald's are the best we have to vote on.

I will still vote on my state and local representatives.


Do you live in the best state in the union …… Maine? It's a beautiful warm sunny day today on the Maine coast next to Casco Bay.

To officially stay on topic: Donald is apparently suffering from dementia which will contribute to increasingly unhinged performances during the coming year and the economy was headed for a "correction" even without Donald's blundering. He is simply speeding things up. Hopefully he will go down bellowing about Hillary, Bill and Obama and the Fed. The buck never stops with him when the situation turns South.
User avatar
By Drlee
#15026662
To not support anyone is also a choice, and often a difficult one.


But always a cowardly one. Hard choices are what adults do.

You, on the other hand, should just sit back and do what you're told...


What? :eh:

I think you are losing it. Your post makes no sense. I have really gotten under your skin and everyone can see it. Stand-down and regroup. You could have a stroke. Once you have regained control come back and put your toe in the water.
User avatar
By colliric
#15026695
Nonsense wrote:A 'settlement' was made between Margaret THATCHER & China in 1997 when Chris PATTEN was the then 'Governor'.
That 'settlement' was a transfer of administrative rights to China,in exchange for Hong Kong retaining the 'Capitalist' economic system for the next 50 years.

My opinion of it, is that it was a 'sell-out' by the Tories, of which the current protest will only get louder.


This is not how the Cantonese Chinese view the situation, and they're right. It's is a fact that Britian was at risk of war with China, and communist invasion, if they did not agree to hand back Hong Kong to Beijing. Britain would have been in violation of current International law, allowing the CCP to portray itself as the "victim" and move in the troops to take the city back by force. The Hong Kong people understand this situation, which is the reason they do NOT blame the UK for what had happened. The UK approached the situation in a level-headed manner and successfully avoided putting the Hong Kong people at risk of immediate communist invasion.

The Communist Party are bastards. Attempting to transfer the blame for the situation to Thatcher is dishonest. Her hands were tied and the Cantonese people know more about that fact than you, they have lived under constant threat of Communist invasion their whole lives.
User avatar
By jimjam
#15026697
Drlee wrote:I think you are losing it. Your post makes no sense. I have really gotten under your skin and everyone can see it. Stand-down and regroup. You could have a stroke. Once you have regained control come back and put your toe in the water.

He is a sensitive young man :|

Hindsite wrote:Honk Kong


I think it is Honk Konk :lol:
By Hindsite
#15026707
jimjam wrote:I think it is Honk Konk :lol:

It will be once China gets complete control. Ha, ha. :lol:
User avatar
By Down East
#15026735
jimjam wrote:Do you live in the best state in the union …… Maine? It's a beautiful warm sunny day today on the Maine coast next to Casco Bay.

To officially stay on topic: Donald is apparently suffering from dementia which will contribute to increasingly unhinged performances during the coming year and the economy was headed for a "correction" even without Donald's blundering. He is simply speeding things up. Hopefully he will go down bellowing about Hillary, Bill and Obama and the Fed. The buck never stops with him when the situation turns South.


Grew up in Rumford Me.
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