Predictions for the 2020's - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15057082
Not quite sure where to put this topic, but let's talk about the new decade.

I think it's going to be a wild and interesting decade. Here are a few things that I think will happen:

I expect major civil unrest in countries like the USA and Western European countries.

Many Jews living in the West will make aliyah.

More censorship on social media, and thus more ghettoization of the internet.

I expect more refugees and so-called refugees to come to the West.

It's very likely that a major economic crash will happen very soon.

AI technology and robotics are going to have a big impact on our lives by the late 2020's, perhaps even earlier.

There will be significantly more electric cars on the road in the EU.

Many countries will make the decision to become fully cashless.

Middle-Eastern countries will further balkanize.
User avatar
By Ter
#15057192
Code Rood wrote:Many Jews living in the West will make aliyah.

In other words, you do not want to see Jews in the West.
OK, fair enough from your point of view.
You do need to have a word with the real anti-Zionists like @skinster because she does not want to see all those Jews in the Jewish Homeland. :excited:
So where are all those Jews supposed to go ?
User avatar
By maz
#15057201
We are still not going to have flying cars or even hooverboards.

Jews in the west are not going to make aliyah, fortunately, if you believe in the prophecy kookery. Instead they will claim victimhood in their nations and demand more laws to protect them.

Greta Thurnberg will fade into obscurity because she the media will eventually turn on her global warming extremist cult.

AI won't be that big of a deal for awhile because you simply cannot train machines to do all of or even most of the work that humans can do in such a short amount of time. The best thing that we could do to confront the AI threat is for real people to figure out what humans can do better vs what machines can do better and strike a reasonable balance between the two.

We will see protests in the west but it really won't matter if the media remains under the control of the MSM and their allies in social media.

I see further violations of American's 2nd amendment.

Nothing will be done about immigration and American cities will continue their descent as 3rd world immigrants continue to poor in.
#15057237
Code Rood wrote:I expect major civil unrest in countries like the USA and Western European countries.

I expect some. However, I think there will be more unrest in Western Europe than in the United States.

Code Rood wrote:Many Jews living in the West will make aliyah.

Any particular faction? I'm guessing from the United States, that would involve more conservative factions.

Code Rood wrote:More censorship on social media, and thus more ghettoization of the internet.

I still watch YouTube, but primarily because I'm in my early 50s and YouTube has a television app. Unlike Millennials who will stare at their phones, I prefer a bit more comfort and a 4k 75-inch screen for that kind of fare. That said, I think censorship on YouTube is rapidly destroying the relevance of the platform. The name "You Tube" implied small scale content creators. Today, YouTube censors political content generally and forces people back to FoxNews, CNN, MSNBC, etc. Yet, some of the best coverage is from independent sources. I remember when CNN had one of the best foreign desks in the business. It's pretty much worthless today.

I do think government funding for social media may dry up. You have to remember that a lot of US big tech companies got funding from CIA fronts like In-Q-Tel. My speculation is that they thought they could inject US cultural attitudes into the third world, but they did not anticipate blowback like ISIS being able to radicalize people in the West.

I don't think YouTube/Twitter/Facebook censorship will work. I never used Twitter, quit Facebook, and will dump YouTube as soon as someone comes up with a decent TV app from another platform. I think the genie is out of the bag on smaller content creators. They are competitive with major media personalities on a shoe string budget--something I think they find painfully embarassing.

Code Rood wrote:I expect more refugees and so-called refugees to come to the West.

Asylum seeking is down under Trump. Barring an economic calamity before November, I'm inclined to think Trump is going to win re-election. So I don't think he's going to open the floodgates to the US. Merkel is out next year principally because of how badly she managed the refugee situation during the Obama years--leading to populist parties throughout Europe.

Code Rood wrote:It's very likely that a major economic crash will happen very soon.

How? Where? Why? And how deep?

We're 12 years into a bull market. We SHOULD see something happen by 2021-2022 at the latest. The US has cut interest rates and the yield curve has normalized. However, with negative interest rates overseas, banks cannot make money in a negative interest rate environment. In my travels to Dubai this year, it struck me just how much of a real estate bubble there is outside of the West.

Code Rood wrote:AI technology and robotics are going to have a big impact on our lives by the late 2020's, perhaps even earlier.

Machine learning for sure. Self-driving vehicles are not far away.

Code Rood wrote:There will be significantly more electric cars on the road in the EU.

New battery technologies will start paying dividends--allowing grid storage, buffering of renewables like wind and solar, etc. I hear talk of electric planes, but the power-to-weight problem is quite a way off. I do think electric cars will be a factor, particularly if oil prices increase--Middle East instability could trigger that very easily.

Code Rood wrote:Many countries will make the decision to become fully cashless.

It will be interesting if smaller countries do this to avoid counterfeiting as a black market seignorage. I still think the US dollar and EU Euro will have large denomination bills, because the global black market runs on them.

Code Rood wrote:Middle-Eastern countries will further balkanize.

There are going to be some astonishing changes there. Women driving in Saudi Arabia is just the beginning. KSA wants to open up to the West, but it's going to be a huge culture shock.

Basically, the main country worrying Israel right now is Iran. It was interesting to see Iran back attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad only to call them off. They actually taunted Trump saying he couldn't do anything, and I'm sure Trump started talking more sanctions rather than the military response that Iran seems to be hoping for.

maz wrote:We will see protests in the west but it really won't matter if the media remains under the control of the MSM and their allies in social media.

Yeah, I'm kind of impressed by the French state's ability to repress the negative news coming out of France. It's a virtual blackout in the US too.

maz wrote:I see further violations of American's 2nd amendment.

Mass resistance to gun control could arise too. Have you seen the reporting out of Virginia?
#15057239
Ter wrote:In other words, you do not want to see Jews in the West.
OK, fair enough from your point of view.
You do need to have a word with the real anti-Zionists like @skinster because she does not want to see all those Jews in the Jewish Homeland. :excited:
So where are all those Jews supposed to go ?


Jews should stay in the West and even in Israel.

I'm allowed to support the "Palestine and Israel" or "Israel and Palestine" single state solution.

Your country needs to ban Kahanist politics and take action against Jewish Racism too. If you want to see anti-semetism go down.

Maybe consider sidelining the Talmud even more.

Jews in the west are not going to make aliyah, fortunately, if you believe in the prophecy kookery. Instead they will claim victimhood in their nations and demand more laws to protect them.


Some will, it's probably going to increase. The Internet made things even more difficult for their community. Not just because of the networking of anti-Semites.

I mean YouTube is now full of Videos of Jesus speaking Lashon Koydesh(thanks Mel Gibson!) and being called Yeshua. That makes things much more difficult for Hasidic Jews who avoid such things like the plague.
#15057321
Ter wrote:In other words, you do not want to see Jews in the West.


It's a prediction. I didn't say anything about Code Rood wanting Jews to leave the Western world.

You see, draconian laws about ''anti-Semitism'' and ''hate speech'' are being created and heavily pushed. I believe this is going to backfire at some point. And of course, quality of life in the West will drop even further as time goes on, due to things like ''diversity''. This will also make Jews flee to Israel.

Ter wrote:OK, fair enough from your point of view.


You don't understand my point of view, or don't want to understand it. That's the whole problem here.

Ter wrote:You do need to have a word with the real anti-Zionists like @skinster because she does not want to see all those Jews in the Jewish Homeland. :excited:


My criticism of Zionism comes more from a pro-Western perspective, whereas Skinster's criticism of Zionism comes from a left-wing humanitarian ''we are the world'' perspective. You see, people like me want the spotlight on the USS Liberty survivors and the theft of Western riches. I don't think Skinster is really thinking about that kind of stuff, but I could be wrong.

Ter wrote:So where are all those Jews supposed to go ?


I guess Jews can live in the West or Israel, but their elite in the West needs to behave and stop undermining our interests.
#15057372
blackjack21 wrote:Yeah, I'm kind of impressed by the French state's ability to repress the negative news coming out of France. It's a virtual blackout in the US too.


It is so obvious that the media gets to pick and choose which demonstrations and revolutions they want to support. They love the Hong Kong demonstrators, and absolutely hate the Yellow Vests and similar demonstrations.

Obviously they hate the alleged Iraqi militas demonstrating against the US occupation, and they don't seem to like the India protests very much. I heard that there were numerous demonstrations a few months ago in Latin American nations, particularly in Ecuador.

That dickhead Trump is always cheering for any kind of unrest in Iran, and all of his shills on Twitter immediately start supporting changing Iranian women's fashion to protest their government. We're definitely going to be seeing more of that probably this year.
blackjack21 wrote:Mass resistance to gun control could arise too. Have you seen the reporting out of Virginia?


I've been following it a little bit, but not too close to be honest. It definitely seems like it could be a big issue; possibly even a very dangerous issue. Is there a thread about it yet?
#15059311
My main prediction is that ACC will get far worse by 2030.
We may see a major release of methane from the Arctic Ocean and arctic permafrost soils. Since methane is like 100 times worse than CO2 in the very short time spans of a decade, {but then converts to CO2 so it decays away}, a major spike in methane can cause a major spike in temp.

If the above do happen then you will see major disruptions of food production which always leads to civil disorder.

I now do not expect to see a major rise in Progressive power in the US or EU.

I do not expect to see vindication of Straus and Howes' predictions about a 4th Wave or Turning sweeping the US & EU in the 2020s. Tech seems to have blocked the normal projection of history.
#15059316
The collapse of the American empire, and the end of the American century.

Which means the dollar will lose reserve status (sometime in the next 20 years). Which will set off the same sort of debilitating crisis that happened to Britain when they lost reserve status.

That will also be when we get told to get with the program, vis a vis climate change. Which will be brutal on top of our other economic woes.

Stupid comes with a price tag.
#15059323
late wrote:The collapse of the American empire, and the end of the American century.

Which means the dollar will lose reserve status (sometime in the next 20 years). Which will set off the same sort of debilitating crisis that happened to Britain when they lost reserve status.

That will also be when we get told to get with the program, vis a vis climate change. Which will be brutal on top of our other economic woes.

Stupid comes with a price tag.
Very wishful thinking, not least by ignoring how much worse some of its biggest challengers are.

And frankly, this Friend's endless whining, and the opposition's incompetence as a whole, might also be complicit.
#15059358
Patrickov wrote:
Very wishful thinking



Other countries accept reserve status because they are highly valued allies.

That is clearly changing.

To be honest, I think reserve status for a single currency has outlived it's utility. A dynamic formula would make more sense. You see countries talking about using a basket of currencies as the reserve. They want the benefits, even if they have to share.

But the economy has gone global, the next step, as I see it, is a neutral mechanism to adjust the value of currencies.
#15059412
late wrote:
Other countries accept reserve status because they are highly valued allies.


It might be surprising to this Member, but many people in China or North Korea, both of which certainly not American allies, value the US Dollar much more than their own currency. The Chinese government's push for RMB reserve status did not go far, because Chinese Law System's independency is next to non-existent.

With Brexit inspiring some other countries, the EU is simply too unstable to make Euro a reliable member for reserve. Considering it a vital member in a basket this would mean the basket itself will be unstable too.

In conclusion, the "hegemony" of the US Dollar still has a long way to go.
#15059437
Patrickov wrote:
It might be surprising to this Member, but many people in China or North Korea, both of which certainly not American allies, value the US Dollar much more than their own currency. The Chinese government's push for RMB reserve status did not go far, because Chinese Law System's independency is next to non-existent.

With Brexit inspiring some other countries, the EU is simply too unstable to make Euro a reliable member for reserve. Considering it a vital member in a basket this would mean the basket itself will be unstable too.

In conclusion, the "hegemony" of the US Dollar still has a long way to go.



Actually, reserve status does tend to last longer than you would think, just based on the facts.

But an economic crisis can change that, and quickly. I think we're one war away from that.
#15059440
late wrote:
Actually, reserve status does tend to last longer than you would think, just based on the facts.

But an economic crisis can change that, and quickly. I think we're one war away from that.
It is a bit early to conclude on when the war is to start (or has been started) or who is the victor. Also, IMHO both of us have some kind of bias against a side, arguably too strong to come to an agreement.
#15059467
Patrickov wrote:It might be surprising to this Member, but many people in China or North Korea, both of which certainly not American allies, value the US Dollar much more than their own currency. The Chinese government's push for RMB reserve status did not go far, because Chinese Law System's independency is next to non-existent.

With Brexit inspiring some other countries, the EU is simply too unstable to make Euro a reliable member for reserve. Considering it a vital member in a basket this would mean the basket itself will be unstable too.

In conclusion, the "hegemony" of the US Dollar still has a long way to go.

As I understand it, the EU & EZ gave away the reserve status of the euro when it --

1] Confiscated euros out of bank accounts in the Cypress crises a decade or 2 ago. This was much like a partial default. If 'you' default on your fiat currency, no one will trust you for a long while.

2] When the central bank has negative interest rates the currency loses its value as a reserve currency because the central bank eats some of your money every day and inflation also does its thing.

Look it up.

____ _________________________________ ____________

Combining posts.

As I understand it the World Bank or IMF have a fiat currency that they issue. This might make a good reserve currency if the IMF sold bonds with positive interest rates.

Also, in a proper world, the IMF would give some of this "currency" each year or month to poor nations to buy stuff. This is an MMT idea, and is like the US Gov. deficit spending in poor states in the US to bolster their economies. It doesn't cost the IMF anything to give away some what that currency is called. Everything will be fine as long as it is done in moderation.
. . But we don't live in a proper world. We currently live in a dog eat dog world and poor nations are the dogs being eaten by the big dogs who have the help of the IMF. The small dogs have no chance against big dogs with IMF help.
#15059642
- Another financial crisis. Not as sudden or dramatic as 2007/8, but as bad.

- More "secular stagnation". Very low productivity and wage growth become the new normal.

- More QE and similar "unconventional monetary policy", which will be mostly futile or even counterproductive.

- Increasing calls by central banks for govt fiscal intervention. Govts, instead, cede fiscal authority to central banks. Central banks are increasingly de-facto govts.

- Ever more turbulent and unpredictable weather. Climate change becomes a real thing for ordinary folks.

- More "Pasokification" i.e. centre-left social democratic parties disappearing while conservative parties are co-opted by nationalist right-wing populists.

- Increasing conflict between sovereign govts and tech giants.

- Self-driving automobiles turn out to be of limited use compared to predictions.

- All pop music will be at the same tempo and of the same I-IV-VI-V harmonic structure.

- All TV shows and movies will be remakes/spinoffs of earlier movies or TV shows.
#15059747
The "reserve currency" thing is fairly unimpressive to me. Certainly, there will arise new alternative channels for international settlement, which will slightly affect certain nations that are either export or import driven. It won't significantly affect the major self-sufficient economies, like that of the US or China.

Other things we will see in 2020s:

* Escalation of mass starvation and political unrest in Africa and the Indian subcontinent.
* Reversal in the direction of economic globalism. Energy/transportation costs will tick up, and the cost of long just-in-time supply lines will prove unsupportable, especially considering political instability in many of the supplier countries. The new economic paradigm will transition into localism and self-sufficiency.
* Rapid, unexpected die-offs in fish populations & climate change aggravating crop yield unpredictability.
* Spot food shortages will induce panic hoarding of food in food exporting countries. This in turn will intensify food shortages and create more panic and political instability in developing world.
* Intense wildfires (a la Australia) in arid regions of the US will become more frequent and last longer. These arid areas will experience increasing dryness, while some areas in central/southeast US will transition into a more subtropical humid climate. Violent weather will increase and particularly afflict coastal areas.
* Internal climate refugees in the US. Southwest will experience rapid depopulation. Coastal areas will move inland.
* Increasingly authoritarian government in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe, as they struggle to deal with multiple simultaneous crises.
* By the end of the decade US will abandon posse comitatus and use troops to preserve order. Every major city will have troops garrisoned in barracks.
* World population in 2030 will be less than in 2020.
* Rapid advance in technology (comparable to WWII) era as nations are forced to adapt to rapidly changing climate/environmental conditions. Solar, wind, and battery tech will overtake fossil fuel in economic viability.
* Era of global projection of force will end. No more international security regimes. Regional powers will be obsessed with guarding their national borders against waves of refugees, and preserving internal order. All others will be left to their own devices.
* By 2030 major geo-engineering climate projects will be contemplated.

You can pretty much deduce what is going to happen from a single chart (note, this is the orginal CoR predictions from the 1970s, updated by MIT):

Image

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