3 German scenarios for the corona epidemic - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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the German ministry of the interior has modeled 3 scenarios:

1. the epidemic will spread without intervention to 70% of the population by end of May
= 1.2 million deaths

2. in the "stretching" scenario the epidemic slows due to contact reduction (7 months lockdown)
= 220,000 deaths

3. in the "hammer and dance" scenario, the epidemic is contained by contact analysis, testing and isolation of infected (loosening of contact restriction starting April 20th)
= 12,000 deaths

https://taz.de/Strategiepapier-des-Inne ... /!5675014/

why do 12,000 have to die?

by using the Chinese method early enough, nobody would have had to die and the economic loss would have been minimal - that ship has sailed

Asians are dumbfounded about why the West has chosen such destruction

Ministry of Interior strategy paper

In the fight against Corona, the Horst Seehofers Ministry relies on mass tests and tracking. And on a harder communication strategy.

BERLIN taz | It is a document of astonishing clarity: In a confidential strategy paper, the Federal Ministry of the Interior outlined possible scenarios for the course of the corona epidemic, as well as the countermeasures sought and the associated communication strategy. The 17-page paper, which was first reported by the research association from the Süddeutscher Zeitung , NDR and WDR and which is available from taz, is pushing for a strong expansion of the corona tests and the increase in the number of intensive care beds as well as for a changed communication strategy.

The ministry headed by Horst Seehofer (CSU) confirmed the existence of the paper on Friday, but did not want to comment on it because it was “not intended for the public”.

The Ministry compares three scenarios regarding the course of the epidemic. The “worst case” scenario assumes that the doubling of the number of infected people will increase from 3 days in the beginning to 6 days in mid-April and to 9 days in late April (currently it is just under 5 days ). In this case, around 70 percent of the population would have been infected by the end of May. Up to 350,000 people would need intensive care at the same time - which, given the available capacities, would mean that 85 percent of those who need them would have to be turned away.

In this scenario, almost 1.2 million people would die from the corona virus within two months. Based on projections from other countries, the Ministry of the Interior assumes a mortality rate of 1.2 percent if sufficient hospital care is guaranteed; At times when capacity is insufficient, a mortality rate of 2 percent is assumed. These values ​​are significantly higher than in a scenario of the Robert Koch Institute on March 20: This assumed a mortality rate of 0.56 percent, but explained that this value was "rather at the bottom of existing estimates".

In a scenario called “stretching”, it is assumed that the doubling of the number of infected people will increase to 6 days by the beginning of April and to 9 days by mid-April due to stricter measures to reduce physical contact. In this case, only about 20 percent of the population would be infected. The need for intensive care beds would only slightly exceed the capacity, so that only 16 percent of the patients would have to be rejected. In this scenario, only about 220,000 people would die. However, the state of emergency with extensive contact restrictions would have to last around 7 months.

The third scenario is called "Hammer and Dance", apparently based on a much-cited article on containment strategies for the corona epidemic. This assumes that in addition to extending the doubling time, the spread of the virus can be greatly reduced by extensive testing and isolation of infected people. This reduces the number of infected people to a total of around 1 million and that of the dead to 12,000.

Exit restrictions until at least the end of April

To achieve this, the number of corona tests had to be increased rapidly and massively. "Both people with self-suspicion and the entire circle of contacts of people who tested positive should be tested," says the paper. The Ministry of the Interior also wants to use cell phone data to identify people who have been in contact with an infected person: "To make testing faster and more efficient, the use of big data and location tracking is essential in the long term ." All positively tested people would have to then be isolated, "at home or in a quarantine facility".

If these test capacities were increased rapidly, the general exit restrictions could gradually be relaxed from April 20 - which the Ministry of the Interior believes is also necessary. "A longer period of exit restrictions is neither economically nor socially sustainable," it says.

In addition to strategies to contain the epidemic, the paper also deals extensively with political crisis communication - and urges to emphasize the dangers more than has hitherto been the case. "We have to get away from communication that is centered on the case mortality rate," the authors write. So far, this has given young and healthy people the impression that they themselves are hardly affected.

Consequential damage also for young people

From the perspective of the Interior Ministry, however, this is not the case. On the one hand, consequential damage such as reduced lung capacity also threatened in young people. On the other hand - at least in the more negative scenarios - the consequences in the family environment would be felt immediately. "Many seriously ill patients are brought to the hospital by their relatives, but are rejected, and die painfully at home, struggling for air," warns the paper - and demands: "In order to achieve the desired shock effect, the concrete effects of an epidemic on human society must be clarified . "

In addition to the health consequences, the Ministry of the Interior also gives drastic warnings about the economic and social consequences. In the best case of rapid containment and control of further expansion, the gross domestic product would only decrease by 4 percent. In the worst case, a 32 percent slump is conceivable. The paper describes what this could mean: "It threatens that this changes the community into a completely different basic state up to anarchy."

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