The Wuhan virus—how are we doing? - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15093828
Looking over the thread titles, I don’t see one for just a general update on how we’re all doing, comparatively. Later when I have access to my desktop I’ll rank the states of the US, the nations of the EU, both the US and the EU in total, and the UK, for deaths per million and how that compares to the current ten-year average flu season. Maybe I’ll throw in some of my other favorite countries, like the rest of the Anglo cultural cluster and Japan. If anyone has some other favorite countries they’d like to see in the mix, let me know. Just don’t ask for China, Russia, or Iran, any stats their governments release are at best propaganda.

But to start off, an opinion-piece on Georgia (the US state, not the country):

    I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Atlanta is not burning. Bodies are not piled up in the streets. Hospitals in Georgia are not being overwhelmed; in fact, they are virtually empty. There is no mad rush for ventilators (remember those?). Instead, men, women, and children in the Peach State are returning to some semblance of normal life: working outside their homes, going to restaurants and bars, getting haircuts, exercising, and most important, spending time with their friends and families and worshipping God. The opening that began more than three weeks ago is continuing apace.

    Oh, my apologies, you were waiting for bad news? Sorry, I forgot, we were actually not supposed to be rooting for the virus. Despite the apparent relish behind headlines like "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice," one assumes that most Americans, even the ones most committed to omnidirectional prophecies of doom, were actually hoping this would happen. While it really is a shame that we do not get to gloat about the cravenness and stupidity of yet another GOP politician, I think on balance most of us will be glad to hear that Gov. Brian Kemp was not badly wrong here.

    What is happening instead of the widely predicted bloodbath? Confirmed cases of the virus are obviously increasing (though the actual rolling weekly average of new ones have been headed down for nearly a month) while deaths remain more or less flat. This is in fact what happens when you test more people for a disease that is not fatal or even particularly serious for the vast majority of those who contract it, for which the median age of death is higher than the American life expectancy.

    How was this possible? One answer is that the lockdown did not in fact do what it was supposed to do, which is to say, meaningfully impede transmission of the virus. In fact, data both from states like Georgia and from abroad suggests that the lifting of lockdowns is positively correlated with a decrease in rates of infection. This could be because lockdowns are inherently ineffective at slowing down a disease whose spread appears to be largely intrafamilial and nosocomial.

    It could also be the weather. That's right: another thing that we were told months ago not even to suggest aloud because it would be irresponsible to make assumptions of any kind about the virus, even sensible ones, like the idea that wearing masks just might help slow it down. This is not science. COVID-19 arrived from China, not from outer space. Unsurprisingly, it appears to behave very much like other respiratory viruses, including influenza. It hates sunlight and the outdoors generally and prefers cramped stuffy conditions, like those found in public transit systems and dense housing complexes with poor ventilation.

    It is worth pointing out here that journalists and Democratic politicians (most notably Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia state representative who labors under the bizarre illusion that she won a statewide election there two years ago and would now like to be vice president) were not the only critics of Gov. Kemp. After a series of spasmodic muscular contractions that seemed to have resulted in tweets calling upon unnamed persons to "liberate" various states, President Trump changed his mind and insisted on more than one occasion that he "strongly disagreed" with the decision to open Georgia. Expecting anything resembling consistency from this president is a fool's errand, but one hopes that at least some of his supporters remember that he was wrong here.

    None of what I have written above should be taken to suggest that Kemp's handling of the pandemic is above reproach, or that he should receive a medal for clear-sightedness here. (I might give one instead to Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, where amid shrill moaning about the non-existent dangers of people standing on beaches, thousands of lives may have been saved by a swift executive order banning the re-introduction of coronavirus patients to elder care facilities). Nor am I suggesting that things in the Peach State cannot possibly take a turn for the worse, especially if appropriate measures are not taken in nursing homes. Two much narrower claims are being made. The first is that those who insisted that Georgia would be transformed into a post-apocalyptic wasteland within days or even weeks of reopening were wrong, and predictably so.

    The second is that this is something about which we should be happy.
#15093910
Georgia

Covid-19
Confirmed:41,127

819 New cases, yesterday

Deaths:1,783

33 deaths, yesterday

Georgia COVID-19 cases, deaths tick up over last week
But in just the past day, 78 more deaths were reported - marking the fourth-highest daily total so far. We're going to watch that number closely over the next few days.
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 04a0367866
#15093923
Godstud wrote:Georgia

Covid-19
Confirmed:41,127

819 New cases, yesterday

Deaths:1,783

33 deaths, yesterday

Georgia COVID-19 cases, deaths tick up over last week
But in just the past day, 78 more deaths were reported - marking the fourth-highest daily total so far. We're going to watch that number closely over the next few days.
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 04a0367866

Naturally, there was an uptick in Georgia, I doubt anyone that's been paying attention didn't think there wouldn't. But today there was only 37 deaths. In the past three weeks Georgia has gone from 110.6 deaths per million to 171.6, an average increase of 2.9 per million per day. Meanwhile, New York has gone from 1,252.6 to 1,496.5, an average increase of 11.61 per day. So far there has been no explosion of Wuhan virus deaths in Georgia.

Image
#15093929
I never said there was an explosion, but there is no signs of it decreasing in infection rates, or death rates, yet.

Pretending everything is hunky-dory, is supreme stupidity.

Considering how the stupid flows downhill...

(2 minute video)
Gov. Kemp, local churches react to President Trump's comments on houses of worship reopening
The president announced at an abrupt White House briefing Friday that governors should allow churches and places of worship to open during the pandemic.
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 5ea145b460
#15093955
Godstud wrote:I never said there was an explosion, but there is no signs of it decreasing in infection rates, or death rates, yet.

Pretending everything is hunky-dory, is supreme stupidity.

Considering how the stupid flows downhill...

(2 minute video)
Gov. Kemp, local churches react to President Trump's comments on houses of worship reopening
The president announced at an abrupt White House briefing Friday that governors should allow churches and places of worship to open during the pandemic.
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/he ... 5ea145b460

Here in Georgia, many of the young people don't seem to be worried about it any more, because most of them that have gotten the virus have had very little symptoms and when they do it is not worse than a cold. I do wish they would be more considerate of us old people in our 70s and at least wear masks when they are out in public. However, I don't want to infringe on their liberty and pursuit of happiness, so I make sure I have a mask and keep my distance, at least for now.
#15093956
Hindsite wrote:I do wish they would be more considerate of us old people in our 70s and at least were masks when they are out in public. However, I don't want to infringe on their liberty and pursuit of happiness, so I make sure I have a mask and keep my distance, at least for now.


Had most people around the world done this the epidemic would have been lessened significantly.
#15093963
Hindsite wrote:However, I don't want to infringe on their liberty and pursuit of happiness, so I make sure I have a mask and keep my distance, at least for now.
And yet when I said that everyone's wearing masks in Thailand, you said:
It may be that people in Thailand are too scared to stand up for liberty.
He is contradicting himself, @Patrickov.

He says everyone should wear masks, and in the next breath he said that people should be allowed to do what they want. :knife:

Freedom to die, as long as it's not him, I guess.

You didn't notice the caveat at the end of Hindsite's statement: ",at least for now.", did you, @Patrickov ?
#15093968
Godstud wrote:And yet when I said that everyone's wearing masks in Thailand, you said:
He is contradicting himself, @Patrickov.

He says everyone should wear masks, and in the next breath he said that people should be allowed to do what they want. :knife:

Freedom to die, as long as it's not him, I guess.

You didn't notice the caveat at the end of Hindsite's statement: ",at least for now.", did you, @Patrickov ?

You either don't understand what you are reading or deliberately twisting the meaning to suit your hateful mind.
#15093971
Godstud wrote:He says everyone should wear masks, and in the next breath he said that people should be allowed to do what they want ...


I probably only noticed the part close to truth, and ignored the parts which aren't.

To me, the best way to deal with nonsense shit is to ignore it, given that it is not an assault on what I care.

He's a stubborn senior citizen, yes, but he's not in power like Trump or Xi, and he does not take a side to assault what I care (If anything, I probably have offended him more than he would ever offend me). Not to mention most of his posts are repetitions of his own comment and makes no difference (too ridiculous and petty to qualify as propaganda).

Therefore, dispelling every false information he's stated is a waste of my time and energy. It might be necessary for certain circumstances, but I don't find it so now.


EDIT: One more thing. I like appreciating someone when he or she does something right, more than attacking someone when he or she does something wrong. It is a pity Apologies if I do the latter more.
#15093975
Hindsite wrote:You either don't understand what you are reading or deliberately twisting the meaning to suit your hateful mind.
You are projecting again. Nothing I said was hateful. I was pointing out inconsistencies in what you were saying.

@Patrickov It's important to pay attention to everything a person says, and not forget the falsehoods. People are far from perfect, but what they lie about gives you insight into who they really are.
#15093984
Godstud wrote:You are projecting again. Nothing I said was hateful. I was pointing out inconsistencies in what you were saying.

@Patrickov It's important to pay attention to everything a person says, and not forget the falsehoods. People are far from perfect, but what they lie about gives you insight into who they really are.

There are no inconsistencies or falsehoods in anything I have said. You are twisting my words to fit your belief. I never said that all people should wear masks. I simply said I wish the young people would wear masks when out in public around people in their 70s. I am not interested in mandating draconian measures that everyone must wear masks.
#15093987
You assume that people are smart enough, or have other people's best interests at heart. Most people, like yourself who implies only following the rules, for now, aren't smart enough to do what is good for everyone. Selfishness can often be called liberty or freedom.

Reality proves that rules have to be put in place to protect most people from the few dumb ones. Is being pragmatic bad, or should we all live in a dreamworld where everyone cares for others, even when it might be hard, or inconvenient for them?

How is wearing a mask in public considered "draconian"? :roll:
#15093992
Godstud wrote:It's important to pay attention to everything a person says, and not forget the falsehoods.

People are far from perfect, but what they lie about gives you insight into who they really are.


I did.

I used a wrong word in my previous post. Instead of "notice", I actually selectively responded to the truth part of his message.

Instead of continuously calling out one's lies (which Hindsite's incorrigibly immersed himself into), I think it's a good idea to point it out when one does talk something correct.

IMHO encouraging people to do correct things is far more constructive, if the opportunity arises.

Conversely, I see me attacking his every lie is a waste of my time and energy.

Not to mention you are already doing it.
#15093997
If you ignore the lies, then people like Trump eventually become the norm. No one wants that, except the gullible who have bought into the lies, already.

Trump's lies have resulted in people ignoring lies, in the USA. When you ignore the little ones, the bigger ones become more palatable.
#15094001
Godstud wrote:If you ignore the lies, then people like Trump eventually become the norm.


This is a slippery slope.

As I said, I have a line for myself. If the said person is in power and I also find my words can make a difference I would be happy to join in.

Member Hindsite simply does not worth it, at least as an individual, because he has always been keen to demonstrate his thought's entertainment value being higher than debate value. By extension, PoFo members usually do not qualify that either, except those I find opening too many threads of the same topic or (conversely) constantly assaulting whatever thread I start.

And even under such circumstances I don't want to repeat whatever I said. If the said person just repeat his words or behaviour then I already "won" (vice versa is also true of course).
#15094042
Godstud wrote:If you ignore the lies, then people like Trump eventually become the norm. No one wants that, except the gullible who have bought into the lies, already.

Trump's lies have resulted in people ignoring lies, in the USA. When you ignore the little ones, the bigger ones become more palatable.

I ignore the rumors about so-called lies that Trump made because they are all made up lies by the left-wing media that deliberately twist what he says. So it all amount to Fake news as I have said many times before. Any of his campaign promises that he has not fully completed can't really be called a lie until he is no longer in office, and even then, it is still an attempt prevented by a hostile Congress in most cases.
#15094058
Godstud wrote:I never said there was an explosion, but there is no signs of it decreasing in infection rates, or death rates, yet.

Pretending everything is hunky-dory, is supreme stupidity.

Asserting that the low rate of deaths per million means that opening the economy is the right thing to do isn’t “pretending everything is hunky-dory.” Neither is pointing out that headlines like “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice” are overblown to the point of being slanderous.
#15094059
Godstud wrote:If you ignore the lies, then people like Trump eventually become the norm.

Ah here we have the nub of the matter. Trump has drastically lowered the level of political debate when it comes to grammar. But in terms of politicians speaking honestly and informatively I really don't see much difference between Trump and the politicians that preceded him. I generally minimise the amount of time I spend listening to politicians, preferring to hear a precis of the useful information second hand. If I'm ever in a position of running a discussion channel / programme, most politicians of any political stripe will not be welcome.

I'm totally opposed to separately elected executive Presidencies, as I am to Governorships and Mayors. So Trump making a mockery of the Presidency is a good thing. Unfortunately British politics has gone in this direction, the last election giving a choice of Boris or Corbyn.
#15094084
The Center for Disease Control has just released a new study that includes the current best estimate of hospitalization and fatality rates for those that develop symptoms. The overall averages are 3.4% for hospitalizations, and 0.4% for deaths. They estimate that the percentage that are asymptomatic is 35%, which seems really low to me. Broken out by age, they are:

Hospitalizations
  • 0-49: 1.7%
  • 50-64: 4.5%
  • 65+: 7.4%

Deaths
  • 0-49: 0.05%
  • 50-64: 0.2%
  • 65+: 1.3%

It looks like the ones really at risk are the elderly in nursing homes, and practically no one else. And remember, this is for symptomatics, factor that in and the overall numbers drop to 2.2% for hospitalizations and 0.26% for deaths. Assume the number of asymptomatics is more like 50%, and they drop to 1.7% for hospitalizations and 0.2%for deaths.
#15094512
An FT reporter does weekly updates of excess deaths on Twitter (see pinned tweet) which provide a good perspective that doesn't depend on the level of testing. For the US as a whole and some US states:

Image

The worst affected regions/cities worldwide to date:

Image

Various countries (mostly European):

Image

Doug64 wrote:The Center for Disease Control has just released a new study that includes the current best estimate of hospitalization and fatality rates for those that develop symptoms. The overall averages are 3.4% for hospitalizations, and 0.4% for deaths. They estimate that the percentage that are asymptomatic is 35%, which seems really low to me. Broken out by age, they are:

Hospitalizations
  • 0-49: 1.7%
  • 50-64: 4.5%
  • 65+: 7.4%

Deaths
  • 0-49: 0.05%
  • 50-64: 0.2%
  • 65+: 1.3%

It looks like the ones really at risk are the elderly in nursing homes, and practically no one else. And remember, this is for symptomatics, factor that in and the overall numbers drop to 2.2% for hospitalizations and 0.26% for deaths. Assume the number of asymptomatics is more like 50%, and they drop to 1.7% for hospitalizations and 0.2%for deaths.

The results of the Spanish antibody study, which to my knowledge is the largest to date, also show that about a third of cases is asymptomatic, so I don't think this parameter is necessarily too low.
El Pais wrote:One out of every three people who tested positive for antibodies was asymptomatic and did not realize they had contracted the virus.

That said, I tried to find sources at the link to see on what basis they made this assessment, but as with all the other data there don't seem to be any. Quite poor for a study by a public body in my view.

Another parameter of interest is their best fatality rate estimate which seems very optimistic, with an overall implied IFR of 0.27% and an IFR for the 65+ age group of 0.87%. Again, would really like to see the data they're working with, but they don't seem to provide it.

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