How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

"It's the economy, stupid!"

Moderator: PoFo Economics & Capitalism Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please.
#15149408
Atlantis wrote:You probably haven't followed the news in the last 4 years. Did you know that the US had a president called Trump who cancelled TPP?


I think his point was that the very existence of TPP (before it was canceled) is evidence that some of those nations were in fact selecting western exploitation over Chinese exploitation. If they were against western exploitation completely, they would have never even bothered to discuss terms on TPP with the US.
#15149414
Rancid wrote:How is their foundation not solid?


And @Beren

Name me an authoritarian system that has survived intact and prospered for the last 100 years? Now compare it to lets say Europe who destroyed itself 2 times in the last century and managed to rebuild itself back up with no problems.

Western Liberal Democratic systems can absord shock and crysis, learn from it and move on onwards. Even if Western Democracies make mistakes then they self correct through different mechanisms. It is not a perfect process but it is something. This is not the case for China. You can see it happening already with XI actually. Memory of Mao times was a motivator for the previous generations but as we move forward those checks and balances are being eroded in China. What I am trying to say is that China has no system besides fear and memory to deal with problems within the country. Previously China changed leaders every 10 years without any oversight because they remember what happened under Mao but now, as the memory fades away, XI sees no problems in violating that term limit of sorts. This is the reality and the erosion of checks and balances without having a system in place.

This is again one of those things that people will laugh about when I talk about it, like my predictions about Trump winning and then loosing or more conflict happening etc. This is a slow process but it will eventually lead China to major problems or even outright collapse if nothing is done about it. Probably within this decade since I can clearly see problems piling up and not getting resolved.

To name a few:
1) XIs violation of term limits. They were not a law in China but it was expected for the chairman to change every 10 years.
2) Oppression of territories that do not agree with the mainland: HK, Uyghurs, Mongols etc
3) Local officials that outright falsify reports to make the social and economic pictures look better what it is.
4) Economic growth that is fuelled by non-stop credit.
5) General lack of transparency for almost everything in China.

There are more I can write on this but I doubt I will be able to change anybodies mind. Let us just wait till the end of the decade and see.
#15149423
It's so typical, @JohnRawls, that you claim to understand China, world history, or anything substantial while thinking in decades or a century at most. The West has been ruling the world for 500 years and now China says 'Well, that's been impressive, now it's our turn.' All you speak of are just details, particularities, or practicalities to them, in which you apparently enjoy getting lost and always interpret them according to your biases while Western moronism and barbarism are unleashed and thriving, especially in the Anglosphere. Without China's help they couldn't even get rid of Trump, for example, while Europe has already got in line with China, actually. China already leads the world silently, and self-confidently, only god knows what plans they have and in what time span they think while the West is loudly and spectacularly struggling to keep themselves together somehow.
#15149432
@Rancid knows what's up.

JohnRawls wrote:3) Local officials that outright falsify reports to make the social and economic pictures look better what it is.

A bigger concern is politicians refusing to request help during an emergency and trying to fix the problem themselves because the moment you admit that you made a serious mistake your career is over. China's gov't is very results orientated and gains legitimacy by the results it provides. Sooner or later a mistake will be made that the people won't be willing to forgive especially when they see the system is more motivated to conceal it than to protect them from it..

That being said western institutions are suffering their own crises of legitimacy that led to Brexit and Trump amongst other populist movements. I doubt many Chinese wish to emulate the poverty and chaos the US system leaves in its wake.
#15149440
AFAIK wrote:@Rancid knows what's up.


A bigger concern is politicians refusing to request help during an emergency and trying to fix the problem themselves because the moment you admit that you made a serious mistake your career is over. China's gov't is very results orientated and gains legitimacy by the results it provides. Sooner or later a mistake will be made that the people won't be willing to forgive especially when they see the system is more motivated to conceal it than to protect them from it..

That being said western institutions are suffering their own crises of legitimacy that led to Brexit and Trump amongst other populist movements. I doubt many Chinese wish to emulate the poverty and chaos the US system leaves in its wake.


Refusing to request help isn't just an issue with the government officials. That's a feature of the entire culture. To the Chinese, requesting help on any task is seen as an admission of failure/weakness/incompetence, which is why they never ask for help even though they desperately need it. This is also why they obsess so much over studying for exams and passing them. They are raised to be deathly scared of failure. They are so scared of failure, it makes them all willing to lie and cheat to avoid admission of failure. This is the ridiculous side to the obsession with "saving face" that they have. In that sense, I agree with @JohnRawls that this cultural attitude prevents problems from ever getting addressed properly. If those problems stack up enough, it could cause real issues for China.

I've experienced this cultural element a lot two different ways. My wife's parents (very stubborn and never admit their fuck ups, even when it's obvious). Also when I've work with people in China. They will often tell you to your face that they understand a task/concept. They will always say yes, they will always say that they can complete a task, they will always say they don't need help. Then they go silent for days/weeks and get nothing done. When you ask them what happened, they just say a bunch of random shit. Then you have to just take the initiative to help them along, this way they get help but don't have to actually ask you for help.

In that sense, i can believe @JohnRawls, but despite all of this, the whole of China just looks like a train that won't stop for anyone.
#15149447
Beren wrote:Yeah, I guess. How did you end up marrying a Chinese woman? ;)


Two points:

- Pointing out a cultural feature of a specific culture doesn't mean I hate the culture or the people.
- I came to the realization of this culture feature after getting married. :lol: Watching the family dynamics gave me a lot of insight for example. Also, working in China and with Chinese people as well. These aren't realizations you just know when you are young. This isn't common knowledge, just knowledge gain through experience.
#15149451
Rancid wrote:
Refusing to request help isn't just an issue with the government officials. That's a feature of the entire culture. To the Chinese, requesting help on any task is seen as an admission of failure/weakness/incompetence, which is why they never ask for help even though they desperately need it. This is also why they obsess so much over studying for exams and passing them. They are raised to be deathly scared of failure. They are so scared of failure, it makes them all willing to lie and cheat to avoid admission of failure. This is the ridiculous side to the obsession with "saving face" that they have. In that sense, I agree with @JohnRawls that this cultural attitude prevents problems from ever getting addressed properly. If those problems stack up enough, it could cause real issues for China.

I've experienced this cultural element a lot two different ways. My wife's parents (very stubborn and never admit their fuck ups, even when it's obvious). Also when I've work with people in China. They will often tell you to your face that they understand a task/concept. They will always say yes, they will always say that they can complete a task, they will always say they don't need help. Then they go silent for days/weeks and get nothing done. When you ask them what happened, they just say a bunch of random shit. Then you have to just take the initiative to help them along, this way they get help but don't have to actually ask you for help.

In that sense, i can believe @JohnRawls, but despite all of this, the whole of China just looks like a train that won't stop for anyone.



I've never been to China, but that tracks with what I've learned. One guy that used to live in China and do youtube videos about it said that most Chinese were only a generation away from the farm. There's a lot they don't understand yet. I mean that in a very general way. He says when Chinese go on vacation, they keep busy. But it's not about enjoyment, it's about creating an appearance of a Western lifestyle. They have wedding photographers, but most of what they do is create scenes. They will go places the couple has never been, and take pictures that make it look like they have a glamorous Western lifestyle. These get done up into leather bound books that are displayed prominently, and even given away as souvenirs.

Anyway, I am somewhere in the middle between you two. They are having problems adjusting to their new status as a mature economy. That will cause them problems. They are also having problems balancing their soft power initiatives (like Silk Road) with their revanchist ambitions to become an empire again.

I think the tension between their intellect and their ego will get worse. You can easily see them succumb to the allure of power. You can see it in the way Xi has consolidated power, in the way they build islands to try and dominate the East China Sea, and in the way they aren't letting their plans for Taiwan play out without drama. They need allies as badly as we do, and these things rattle them. The allure of being the tough guy is easy to understand. But you can see the limits of Realpolitik in the wreckage of all the empires that came before them. They always look great, until things start going wrong.
#15149454
Rancid, doesn't Japan also have that phenomenon and that's why they rarely invent anything brand new? It didn't prevent them from becoming a significant power under a fascist or liberal gov't, though.
#15149458
Rancid wrote:I've experienced this cultural element a lot two different ways. My wife's parents (very stubborn and never admit their fuck ups, even when it's obvious). Also when I've work with people in China. They will often tell you to your face that they understand a task/concept. They will always say yes, they will always say that they can complete a task, they will always say they don't need help. Then they go silent for days/weeks and get nothing done. When you ask them what happened, they just say a bunch of random shit. Then you have to just take the initiative to help them along, this way they get help but don't have to actually ask you for help.


First of all, hello Rancid. Then I will say this cultural thing that you are talking of is not 'chinese' per se but again is linked to developing countries. I have seen the same complaints about South Asian specially in IT sectors i.e. they will never say, they can't do it, will always say "yup" totally can.

Now its of course anecdotal, and I don't like saying it but dude, trust me. For I was like that too fresh out of college looking for better employment opportunities, I will never say I don't know or can't do it and at the back of my head my thought process was, yeah I will be prepared when push comes to shove. But if you go to rural parts and you will find people far more blunt and straight forward, even though my family and theirs just a couple generation ago came from basically same cultural background.

So basically what I am trying to say is that it will come to an end with more economical growth, our parents/grandparents left rural life recently and there is that fear that one or two lapses and this economical upliftment will come to naught or they won't ride the next stage of upliftment as many of their peers didn't, hell as a kid I was often scolded like, "You will end up in a village feeding cows all your life if you don't study hard". :lol:

Finally what I am saying that this culture that you speak of is a product of capitalism and not ingrained in a nation/ethnicity and will come to pass.
#15149463
AFAIK wrote:Rancid, doesn't Japan also have that phenomenon and that's why they rarely invent anything brand new? It didn't prevent them from becoming a significant power under a fascist or liberal gov't, though.


Before I answer your question. I didn't say I think China will fail due to this cultural feature. I said that in understanding that culture feature, I could see how johnrawls could potentially be right that the underlying problems in government in China could potentially never get addressed, and thus be a real problem.

I tend to believe that despite this culture "issue" that it likely won't be a problem for them.

As for the question, Koreans are similar too. I've worked with Koreans as well (recall my adventures with Verv there). My experience with the Koreans is that it isn't as bad with them as it is with the Chinese, but its there too. Seems like the younger Koreans are pushing back on this pretty hard. That could happen in China too assuming the CCP doesn't drop the hammer like they did in Tienanmen square.


fuser wrote:
First of all, hello Rancid. Then I will say this cultural thing that you are talking of is not 'chinese' per se but again is linked to developing countries. I have seen the same complaints about South Asian specially in IT sectors i.e. they will never say, they can't do it, will always say "yup" totally can.

Now its of course anecdotal, and I don't like saying it but dude, trust me. For I was like that too fresh out of college looking for better employment opportunities, I will never say I don't know or can't do it and at the back of my head my thought process was, yeah I will be prepared when push comes to shove. But if you go to rural parts and you will find people far more blunt and straight forward, even though my family and theirs just a couple generation ago came from basically same cultural background.

So basically what I am trying to say is that it will come to an end with more economical growth, our parents/grandparents left rural life recently and there is that fear that one or two lapses and this economical upliftment will come to naught or they won't ride the next stage of upliftment as many of their peers didn't, hell as a kid I was often scolded like, "You will end up in a village feeding cows all your life if you don't study hard". :lol:

Finally what I am saying that this culture that you speak of is a product of capitalism and not ingrained in a nation/ethnicity and will come to pass.


Hello. You're back. Welcome.

I mostly agree with you.

As I said above, I'm not convinced that this cultural attitude is a deep fundamental problem for China. Basically, I agree with you, they can get past this.

As for this being the product of capitalism. I don't know about that. Chinese culture has existed since before capitalism, and from my limited understanding of their history. This fear of failure sort of thing can be found in historical dynasties as well (though this is a third hand understanding, so could be totally wrong). None the less, I agree, this is not an insurmountable problem, no matter the cause of it.
#15149486
Beren wrote:It's so typical, @JohnRawls, that you claim to understand China, world history, or anything substantial while thinking in decades or a century at most. The West has been ruling the world for 500 years and now China says 'Well, that's been impressive, now it's our turn.' All you speak of are just details, particularities, or practicalities to them, in which you apparently enjoy getting lost and always interpret them according to your biases while Western moronism and barbarism are unleashed and thriving, especially in the Anglosphere. Without China's help they couldn't even get rid of Trump, for example, while Europe has already got in line with China, actually. China already leads the world silently, and self-confidently, only god knows what plans they have and in what time span they think while the West is loudly and spectacularly struggling to keep themselves together somehow.


I have re-read this 2 times and didn't get your point. Can you elaborate, please.
#15149509
Trump had a good idea in theory to go after China. He was arrogant and stupid to think it would be best to go it alone. He's a tough negotiator, but adding Europe and other western nations to the push to get better terms of trade from China would have added a lot more leverage for the US.

At least he's made some choices like banning Hauwei and TikTok that have put national security above neoliberal economics.

The Royal Family is better than watching the soap[…]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: This th[…]

Well said, @Drlee . You guys have a lot of wisdom[…]

I have said it multiple times before and I'll rep[…]