[Puffer Fish]

I know a lot of Americans might not realize this, but the majority of babies being born come from younger women between the ages of 16 to 26.

If economic circumstances are such that it becomes difficult for women in the younger age demographic to have babies and begin families, it's going to have a very profound impact on the overall birth rates for the country.

In 2004, the median age at which women in the U.S. gave birth to their first child was 24.9 years of age.

I suspect the housing affordability issue in the U.S. is having a huge impact on the birth rates.
If it becomes financially difficult for younger women to start new families, the average birth rate for the country is going to go way down.


In 1960 the average fertility rate for women in the U.S. was 3.65 .

(source: Number of Children to Women Aged 40-44, 1980-2022 (bgsu.edu) )

In 1980, the average fertility rate was 1.84 . That dropped even further down to 1.66 by 2021.

In 2001, the average number of births for white women was 40% less than for Hispanic women in the U.S.

(source: U.S. Fertility Rates Higher Among Minorities | PRB )

In 1980, 10% of U.S. women between the ages of 40 to 44 did not have children. That increased to 19% by the year 2000.

[Puffer Fish]

related thread: Nearly half of U.S. women under 45 are childless (in North America, 2 Sept 2023 )


snippet from news article:

American women not having babies

Americans aren't just waiting longer to have kids and having fewer once they start -- they're less likely to have any at all.

The shift means that childlessness may be emerging as the main driver of the country’s record-low birthrate.

Women without children, rather than those having fewer, are responsible for most of the decline in average births among 35- to 44-year-olds during their lifetimes so far, according to an analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey data by University of Texas demographer Dean Spears for The Wall Street Journal. Childlessness accounted for over two-thirds of the 6.5% drop in average births between 2012 to 2022.

While more people are becoming parents later in life, 80% of the babies born in 2022 were to women under 35, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics data.

"Some may still have children, but whether it’ll be enough to compensate for the delays that are driving down fertility overall seems unlikely," says Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

The change is far-reaching. More women in the 35-to-44 age range across all races, income levels, employment statuses, regions and broad education groups aren't having children.

Women who do not have a child by the age of 40 are likely to remain childless.
The number of American women over 40 who had no children was declining until 2018, according to Current Population Survey data, when it then began to rise again. ​

Why Americans Aren't Having Babies, by Rachel Wolfe, The Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2024


Probably the reason women "across all income groups" are not having children is either they are too poor and cannot afford to have children without a serious sacrifice in their standard of living, or for the women who do have more money, they are far too busy with their careers to be able to have time to raise children. The cost of housing is also extremely expensive in the areas that have higher paying career opportunities. With couples being unable to afford space, additional bedrooms and a yard, it is going to discourage them from having children.

Also there is a shortage of affordable housing, so younger families cannot afford children. This would be expected to have a profound effect on the birth rates since it is typically younger women (between the ages of 20 to 30 ) who have children, not older women.