[KurtFF8]

You do realize, @KurtFF8, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia do not recognize the result and are negotiating a way out for Maduro, right?

Nice pivot attempt there. None of them are recognizing the opposition though. They also aren't negotiating or asking for Maduro to leave, they're simply asking for more transparency.

[wat0n]

Nice pivot attempt there. None of them are recognizing the opposition though. They also aren't negotiating or asking for Maduro to leave, they're simply asking for more transparency.

Brazil, Mexico and Colombia issued an ultimatum saying that they expect the CNE to make the voting logs public.

Others like Ecuador, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Peru recognize González as the winner.

The US also recognizes him, as stated by Kirby yesterday:

Q Hi, Sam. Thank you so much. I have two questions. The first one on Venezuela. We asked this to Karine yesterday, but wondered if you can clarify a little bit more the U.S. position on Venezuelan leader Edmundo González Urrutia. It seems that it went from Secretary Blinken last week recognizing his victory to, kind of, now just supporting diplomatic efforts to return democracy to Venezuela.

If you can just clarify: Is the U.S. still calling him “president-elect”? Or have you ever called him “president-elect”? Just your latest position on that.

And then I have another question on Sinwar.

MR. KIRBY: We have not changed our formal recognition of the government of Venezuela since 2015, Patsy, and that is that we recognize the 2015 National Assembly.

Again, as has been said time and time again, based on all the evidence presented by the opposition but also civil society, other observers, polling, Mr. González won the most votes, and now Mr. Maduro needs to release the full, detailed voting data without delay to represent the aspirations of the, what, 12 million Venezuelans who turned out to vote.

But no change in our policy on recognizing the 2015 National Assembly.

Q Are you calling him “president-elect”?

MR. KIRBY: I have nothing more to add.

[KurtFF8]

Brazil, Mexico and Colombia issued an ultimatum saying that they expect the CNE to make the voting logs public.

That's not what the word ultimatum means. They are simply pressuring Venezuela over more transparancy, they aren't saying they're planning on recognizing the opposition. The countries you're citing tend not to follow the lead of the US.

Others like Ecuador, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Peru recognize González as the winner.

Yes, it's predominately the right wing governments doing this, no surprise there. Chile is the outlier although Boric has been awful on international issues and has gone further and further to the right for some time.

The US also recognizes him, as stated by Kirby yesterday:

Nope! Read the two separate articles I posted before. The US has walked this back for now.

[wat0n]

That's not what the word ultimatum means. They are simply pressuring Venezuela over more transparancy, they aren't saying they're planning on recognizing the opposition. The countries you're citing tend not to follow the lead of the US.

You have to read between lines. How long do you think they can hold out if Venezuela doesn't comply?

The weird part is that the CNE just needs to make some fake logs and they'll be placated. Instead, you have Maduro being confrontational with other leftists like Boric.

Yes, it's predominately the right wing governments doing this, no surprise there. Chile is the outlier although Boric has been awful on international issues and has gone further and further to the right for some time.

I wish this was true.

It's just that it's very much popular to push back against Maduro because there's widespread opposition to more Venezuelan immigration in Chile. Even among leftists (who tried to disenfranchise them since they tend to be more right wing than the average Chilean).

Nope! Read the two separate articles I posted before. The US has walked this back for now.

That presser is from yesterday.

[KurtFF8]

You have to read between lines. How long do you think they can hold out if Venezuela doesn't comply?

The weird part is that the CNE just needs to make some fake logs and they'll be placated. Instead, you have Maduro being confrontational with other leftists like Boric.

The idea that Mexico or Brazil would interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela is absurd and baseless. It shows you know little of how either country conducts foreign policy.

Calling Boric a "leftist" is of course laughable. He's a center-left politicians who generally aligns with the US on foreign policy.

I wish this was true.

It's just that it's very much popular to push back against Maduro because there's widespread opposition to more Venezuelan immigration in Chile. Even among leftists (who tried to disenfranchise them since they tend to be more right wing than the average Chilean).

What is it I said that you "wish was true" rather than being true? All of the governments I cited are right wing, and as I said above, Boric is not a Leftist.

That presser is from yesterday.

Indeed, and did you read it? At no point does he claim that the US position is to recognize Gonzalez as the President-elect. He largely deflects and brings up 2015 and then echos the calls by Brazil and Mexico.

[wat0n]

The idea that Mexico or Brazil would interfere in the internal affairs of Venezuela is absurd and baseless. It shows you know little of how either country conducts foreign policy.

Then why are they opining on which organ should communicate the election's results?

Calling Boric a "leftist" is of course laughable. He's a center-left politicians who generally aligns with the US on foreign policy.

It's not laughable, it's why Boric supported and still supports Cuba (for example). He may criticize Maduro a lot, but Cuba is a sacred cow he'll never touch.

What is it I said that you "wish was true" rather than being true? All of the governments I cited are right wing, and as I said above, Boric is not a Leftist.

I wish it was true Boric was having a pro-US turn.

He's not, he's just caving into domestic pressure to stop Venezuelan migration, the cause of which is the chavistas' failure (something even leftists like him cannot deny), and also because the fraud is way too obvious to ignore.

Indeed, and did you read it? At no point does he claim that the US position is to recognize Gonzalez as the President-elect. He largely deflects and brings up 2015 and then echos the calls by Brazil and Mexico.

The US however does recognize him as the winner of the election.

Brazil, Colombia and Mexico don't (for now).

[KurtFF8]

Then why are they opining on which organ should communicate the election's results?

My point is that you're falsely claiming that they're giving Venezuela "ultimatums." They aren't.

It's not laughable, it's why Boric supported and still supports Cuba (for example). He may criticize Maduro a lot, but Cuba is a sacred cow he'll never touch.

Cuba is an anomaly in many ways because it has been able to get support from even right wing governments in the past. Hell Franco's Spain supported Cuba in terms of the blockade. Boric is center-Left at most. This isn't really debatable.

I wish it was true Boric was having a pro-US turn.

He's not, he's just caving into domestic pressure to stop Venezuelan migration, the cause of which is the chavistas' failure (something even leftists like him cannot deny), and also because the fraud is way too obvious to ignore.

He is aligning fully with the US. This is because he is not an anti-imperialist but a center left reformist at best. Not sure what the point of pretending it's something different is here.

The US however does recognize him as the winner of the election.

Brazil, Colombia and Mexico don't (for now).

Yet the US refuses to call him the President-Elect. Like I said, they've walked this back. It seems like you're just trying to argue for the sake of having an argument here, you don't seem to have a coherent point.

[Deutschmania]

And now Maduro has shown himself to have gone full on anti-Semitic conspiracy theorist .

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has blamed “international Zionism” for the protests sweeping his country since he was accused of stealing its presidential election.

Maduro’s government has cracked down on thousands of protesters who took to the streets over the results of Venezuela’s July 28 election, arresting 2,000 people and killing 20. Venezuela’s electoral authority said that Maduro was reelected with 51% of the vote but has refused to release precinct-level tallies.

Detailed tallies from his opposition say that Maduro’s opponent Edmundo Gonzalez likely won with 67% of the vote, aligning with independent exit polls and analyses by the Washington Post and the Associated Press.

The disputed election quickly fanned unrest in Venezuela, ruled by Maduro’s socialist government for 11 years — a period that saw nearly 8 million Venezuelans flee the country amid a devastating economic collapse, exacerbated by U.S. oil sanctions. Maduro himself came into power in 2013 after being hand-picked by late President Hugo Chávez.

This week, he pinned the turmoil on his opposition, which he said was “supported” and “financed” by “international Zionism.”

“All the communication power of Zionism, which controls all the social networks, the satellites and all the power is behind this coup d’état,” Maduro said in a televised address.

Venezuela and Israel have not had formal relations since 2009, when Chavez broke off ties in response to that year’s Gaza war. Maduro is among a broad cohort of Latin American leaders who are deeply critical of Israel and strong supporters of the Palestinians.

His comment was slammed by Deborah Lipstadt, the U.S. special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, who accused him of harnessing historic antisemitic tropes about Jews controlling the world.

“Maduro’s absurd claim that Jews are behind election protests in Venezuela is antisemitic and unacceptable,” Lipstadt tweeted. “The Venezuelan people have gone to the streets to peacefully call for their votes to be counted. We reject all forms of antisemitism, and the use of these types of age-old tropes fans the flames of Jew hatred in Latin America and throughout the world.”

Venezuela is home to about 6,000 Jews, down from a height of about 25,000 in the 1990s. Many left over the economic policies of Chavez and Maduro.

The criticism adds to a wave of international condemnation over Maduro’s claim to victory. Though Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have stood by Maduro, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there was “overwhelming evidence” that Gonzalez won the election and Washington recognized him as the victor. The European Union also said that it does not recognize Maduro’s proclaimed result.

The leaders of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico have urged Maduro to allow an audit of the vote and called on the electoral authorities to release detailed voting data. Jewish Telegraphic Agency

As Venezuelan ruler Nicolas Maduro faces intense protests, he has found a new bunch of people to blame: Jews.

Echoing extremists’ conspiracy theories, Maduro has said the Jews control the international media and are driving the movement against him.

In the run-up to the last month’s vote in Venezuelan, it was expected that the Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzales would win. The vote was marked by widespread voter suppression and instances of violence by Maduro’s forces. The election had already taken place amid crackdown by Maduro on his Opposition and threats of a “bloodbath” in case he lost.

Following the election, while the Maduro-controlled election authority declared him the winner, the Opposition and much of the international community disputed the result and said Gonzalez had won. The Maduro’s regime has not shown paper tallies of votes cast for independent verification of the result. Along with this, considering Maduro has a history of manipulating elections, as he also won a sham election in 2018, the international community has rejected the result and have called for transparency.

Now, after suppressing voters and cracking down on opponents and critics, as the international community indicts him for electoral fraud, he has turned to antisemitism to make his case. In a press conference, he said that “far-right” and “international zionist” forces were working against him.

‘Zionist powers behind this coup’

Maduro, who unleased his regime’s forces on the protestors agitating against what’s deemed as a stolen election, accused the Jews of funding his rivals and driving the narrative against him.

In a speech late last week, Maduro said Venezuela’s “extremist right” was “financed” and “supported by international Zionism”, according to The Jerusalem Post.

“All the communication power of Zionism, who controls all social networks, the satellites, and all the power behind this coup d’état,” said Maduro.

Zionism refers to the ideology of political Judaism. It is under the ideology that the State of Israel was formed where Jews, after systemic persecution of centuries in Europe and the Middle East, found a homeland where they say they historically originate from.

Maduro continues to rule Venezuela even as the Opposition holds demonstrations against his rule. After days of hiding owing to threats to her life from Maduro’s regime, Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has now started leading protest marches against Maduro’s rule. She remains the most popular leader in the country and, as part of the regime’s crackdown on Opposition, she was barred from contesting the elections. Her supporters were also jailed and criminal cases were slapped on them.

Maduro has ruled Venezuela with an iron fist since 2013. Over the decade, he has presided over the economic ruin of the country. The crisis in the country is such that more than 7 million people have fled the country as food and other essentials either scarce or unaffordable for them. Such conditions have arisen despite Venezuela having the largest known oil reserves in the world but the corruption of Maduro’s regime has been such that the country’s GDP has fallen by up to 80 per cent since he came to power.

Ahead of the election, a Gallup survey found that as many as 68 per cent Venezuelans struggled to find food and the condition is so dire that even 59 per cent of the richest 20 per cent say said they were unable to afford food because of inflation. First Post

It seems to me , especially given the example of @KurtFF8 's commentary here in this thread , that , in terms of Latin American dictators, Maduro has become to a number of the far-left hardliners what Pinochet had been for the hard right . In that it suits their agenda , they'll unconditionally throw in behind such repressive regimes. And so I will post this song , in Spanish , that was used against Pinochet , in Chile below . I feel that continuing to stand by Maduro , no matter what , will only serve to further over all discredit the radical left in America .

[wat0n]

^ This is a much smarter take from a leftist perspective. And yes, Maduro is currently starting to look like the Left's Pinochet, which is kind of odd IMO since one would think Castro takes that role better.

My point is that you're falsely claiming that they're giving Venezuela "ultimatums." They aren't.

Read between the lines, what do you think will happen when Maduro doesn't listen to them for the nth time?

Cuba is an anomaly in many ways because it has been able to get support from even right wing governments in the past. Hell Franco's Spain supported Cuba in terms of the blockade. Boric is center-Left at most. This isn't really debatable.

Franco even supported Allende, and both governments enjoyed good relations. That doesn't really mean much.

However, your position on Cuba is probably the best way to tell a leftist from a non-leftist in the Latin American context.

He is aligning fully with the US. This is because he is not an anti-imperialist but a center left reformist at best. Not sure what the point of pretending it's something different is here.

If so he would oppose Cuba (duh) but he does not because he's a leftist.

Yet the US refuses to call him the President-Elect. Like I said, they've walked this back. It seems like you're just trying to argue for the sake of having an argument here, you don't seem to have a coherent point.

The US is claiming he won this election, although the election itself is already suspect because Corina Machado, not Edmundo Gonzalez, should have been the candidate.

[KurtFF8]

Read between the lines, what do you think will happen when Maduro doesn't listen to them for the nth time?

At most they will likely condemn the results. Again, you just falsely claimed that they issued ultimatums, they didn't.

If so he would oppose Cuba (duh) but he does not because he's a leftist.

He's a "leftist" in the same way that someone like Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are "leftists" (They aren't)

The US is claiming he won this election, although the election itself is already suspect because Corina Machado, not Edmundo Gonzalez, should have been the candidate.

The US is not recognizing a result yet, simply claiming fraud. Although the US has of course yet to produce evidence of fraud. Like I said before, they're walking back their recognition of the person who is not the President (which is what the US has done before of course).

[wat0n]

At most they will likely condemn the results. Again, you just falsely claimed that they issued ultimatums, they didn't.

...Then, they will refuse to recognize Maduro as the legitimate President.

After that, if Maduro decides to just kill all the protesters, they won't object to a military intervention to end him.

Same if Maduro invades Guyana.

He's a "leftist" in the same way that someone like Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are "leftists" (They aren't)

No True Scotsman hits again.

The US is not recognizing a result yet, simply claiming fraud. Although the US has of course yet to produce evidence of fraud. Like I said before, they're walking back their recognition of the person who is not the President (which is what the US has done before of course).

The opposition has produced evidence of fraud.

The CNE itself produced evidence of fraud lol.

[Deutschmania]

He's a "leftist" in the same way that someone like Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are "leftists" (They aren't)

If Gabriel Boric , and the Broad Front is not leftist , then neither am I ( I am) . It's just that I concur with him on the topic of Venezuela .

Boric stated that the democratic left should not uphold a double standard when it comes to human rights or employ the principle of self-determination to justify violations of human rights. He believes that, "just as the left must condemn the violation of human rights in Chile during the dictatorship and also today, the soft coups in Brazil, Honduras and Paraguay, the Israeli-occupied territories, or the interventionism of the United States, we must from the left with the same force condemn the permanent restriction of freedoms in Cuba, the repressive government of Ortega in Nicaragua, the dictatorship in China and the weakening of the basic conditions of democracy in Venezuela". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Boric#Foreign_policy

[Negotiator]

Oh right, the good old fight what is left and right.

Forget it.



The current dominant ideology of our elites is commonly called "wokeism".

Wokeism took classic leftwing issues such as human rights and blew them up to a parody, while ignoring the most important, most central leftwing issue, the fight of interests between the workers and the rich.

Woke people believe they are leftwing, when they really arent.

So our elites think they are "left" now, when they really arent.

This means that classic leftwingers like me see no point anymore in the whole term, because if you say you're left, you get assigned to a ton of garbage that has absolutely nothing to do with being left.


Which means the whole category "leftwing" is useless now, because people dont understand anymore what you mean.

Heck, even "Marxism" is useless as a term now. The rightwingers like Trump literally call the worst capitalists on earth "Marxist" now. Constantly.

The original Marxism is simply the demand to democratize the economy. Capitalists want the exact opposite. They want to continue to run the economy mediveal-alike style, as a feudalism and a religion of greed.

[KurtFF8]

...Then, they will refuse to recognize Maduro as the legitimate President.

After that, if Maduro decides to just kill all the protesters, they won't object to a military intervention to end him.

Same if Maduro invades Guyana.

What a wild hypothetical situation. Venezuela is not the Israeli regime, they don't just massacre civilians.

And the likelihood of Mexico or Brazil supporting military intervention, even if they no longer support the government, is almost 0.

No True Scotsman hits again.

Nope, not what that term means. Just because you claim that X politician has Y politics doesn't mean that anyone who disagrees is engaging in the No True Scotsman fallacy.

The opposition has produced evidence of fraud.

The CNE itself produced evidence of fraud lol.

Even the US has walked back its recognition of the opposition due to calling for more transparency. The idea that this is an accepted conclusion is of course inaccurate.

If Gabriel Boric , and the Broad Front is not leftist , then neither am I ( I am)

Maybe you aren't then. One of the cornerstones of being a Leftist is opposition to imperialism. Aligning with the US State Department is a sure sign that someone is likely not a real opponent of global capitalism.

Oh right, the good old fight what is left and right.

Forget it.



The current dominant ideology of our elites is commonly called "wokeism".

Wokeism took classic leftwing issues such as human rights and blew them up to a parody, while ignoring the most important, most central leftwing issue, the fight of interests between the workers and the rich.

Woke people believe they are leftwing, when they really arent.

So our elites think they are "left" now, when they really arent.

This means that classic leftwingers like me see no point anymore in the whole term, because if you say you're left, you get assigned to a ton of garbage that has absolutely nothing to do with being left.


Which means the whole category "leftwing" is useless now, because people dont understand anymore what you mean.

Heck, even "Marxism" is useless as a term now. The rightwingers like Trump literally call the worst capitalists on earth "Marxist" now. Constantly.

The original Marxism is simply the demand to democratize the economy. Capitalists want the exact opposite. They want to continue to run the economy mediveal-alike style, as a feudalism and a religion of greed.

I'm going to go ahead and guess that this post was created by AI from a prompt.

[wat0n]

What a wild hypothetical situation. Venezuela is not the Israeli regime, they don't just massacre civilians.

The FANB has killed tens of thousands of civilians according to the UN

And the likelihood of Mexico or Brazil supporting military intervention, even if they no longer support the government, is almost 0.

They don't need to actively support it, just staying out of the way would be enough.

By the way, Brazil did deploy troops to its border with Venezuela and Guyana when the former started to threaten to invade the latter.

Nope, not what that term means. Just because you claim that X politician has Y politics doesn't mean that anyone who disagrees is engaging in the No True Scotsman fallacy.

It is exactly what it means.

What I don't understand is why don't you just apply it to a failure like the chavistas. Even the Venezuelan communists have already jumped ship

Even the US has walked back its recognition of the opposition due to calling for more transparency. The idea that this is an accepted conclusion is of course inaccurate.

The US has not changed its position. It's still calling the election a fraud.

Maybe you aren't then. One of the cornerstones of being a Leftist is opposition to imperialism. Aligning with the US State Department is a sure sign that someone is likely not a real opponent of global capitalism.

The Left never had an issue with supporting Soviet imperialism.

[Deutschmania]

On the topic of the political spectrum of left to right , I would agree with these two history YouTubers , that the dichotomy is outdated , and not an useful descriptor , especially given how anyone who is not a neo-reactionary is technically , in the historic sense at least , somewhat left-wing . As to my own point of view , to be exact , while I can certainly understand how my politics could on the surface get mistakenly conflated with that of a number of neo-conservatives , especially In regards to those whom are Shactmanist , I notably differ from neocons on foreign policy , as the neocons , such as for example those who had been part of the Social Democrats USA , are inclined to advocate liberal internationalism / interventionism , which I would deride as constituting social imperialism . Instead my approach to military policy would be one of revolutionary defensivism .

[Deutschmania]

The Left never had an issue with supporting Soviet imperialism.

This is the only part of your post that I disagree with , as there had been an anti-Stalinist left that had opposed Soviet hegemony . Plus , even Maoists denounced what they perceived as the social imperialism of the Brezhnev Doctrine . But , as I alluded to before , a number of Shactmanists went so far as to support Cold War militarism against the Soviet Bloc , and wound up becoming the nuclei for neo-conservatism , especially as it has related to the Social Democrats USA . As to myself , I imagine that had I lived in Europe , during the Cold War , and before the development of Eurocommunism , I would have supported the position of popular socialism , as I consider myself to be more so a Centrist / Western Marxist .

[wat0n]

This is the only part of your post that I disagree with , as there had been an anti-Stalinist left that had opposed Soviet hegemony . Plus , even Maoists denounced what they perceived as the social imperialism of the Brezhnev Doctrine . But , as I alluded to before , a number of Shactmanists went so far as to support Cold War militarism against the Soviet Bloc , and wound up becoming the nuclei for neo-conservatism , especially as it has related to the Social Democrats USA . As to myself , I imagine that had I lived in Europe , during the Cold War , and before the development of Eurocommunism , I would have support the position of popular socialism , as I consider myself to be more so a Centrist / Western Marxist .

Yours was still a minority position, though. I don't really find it surprising, in the end it's just geopolitics, but I don't like it when people aren't honest about what their priorities are.

[Deutschmania]

Nicolás Maduro has baptised his political crackdown Operación Tun Tun (Operation Knock Knock) after the spine-chilling visits his security forces pay their targets. But when members of Venezuela’s secret police came for Aixa Daniela Boada López, they announced their arrival with a thump not a tap.

“It was about half past midnight when we heard this loud bang on the roof,” said one witness to her detention in the industrial complex of Ciudad Guayana early on 1 August.

Black-clad agents from the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service, Sebin, were seen smashing their way inside. They carried guns and a picture of the 19-year-old law student they had come to arrest. López was bundled into a vehicle as panicked relatives looked on.

“Neighbours came out to try and protect her but they pointed their weapons at them and took the girl,” said the witness, asking to remain anonymous for fear of suffering a similar fate.

Nearly a month after López’s capture, her future remains uncertain, as do those of more than 1,600 people detained during Maduro’s roundup of perceived opponents. For protesting against his widely doubted claim to have won the 28 July presidential election, López and others face charges of criminal association and terrorism that could lead to decades in jail.

Venezuela’s outlook is equally unsure. “These days, fear and uncertainty are the most accurate words to describe the situation,” said Gonzalo Himiob, a writer and activist involved in documenting rights violations some compare to those committed under the Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Maduro’s administration tried to draw a line under the crisis this week with the announcement from the pro-government supreme court that it had corroborated the president’s victory over his rival, Edmundo González. The court’s verdict flew in the face of growing international suspicions – even among leftwing politicians traditionally supportive of the movement created by Maduro’s mentor, Hugo Chávez – that the incumbent’s claim to victory did not stack up.

“I’ve no doubt this election has been stolen,” Chile’s leftist president, Gabriel Boric, said after the court’s judgment, accusing what he called Maduro’s “dictatorship” of falsifying the result.

Even Brazil and Colombia, whose leftist presidents have long-established ties to Chavismo, are refusing to recognise Maduro’s win, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro on Saturday renewing their call for the publication of disaggregated results data at polling station level.

Distrust and outright rejection of Maduro’s claim to victory are based on studies of detailed voting tallies that González’s campaign published after the government-controlled electoral court declared Maduro the winner, without offering proof.

The author of one such study, Dorothy Kronick, a political scientist at University of California, Berkeley, said she was initially sceptical about the opposition’s claim that those tallies showed González had won a landslide.

“If the data from the opposition campaign are true, then these results are shocking. If you believe these data, then the opposition candidate likely got more than 8m votes, maybe even 8.5m votes nationwide, which is more than Hugo Chávez got in the 2012 presidential election before a fifth, or more than a fifth of Venezuelans emigrated. So that’s incredible, right?” added Kronick, whose past work debunked electoral fraud claims that helped topple Bolivia’s leftist leader, Evo Morales, in 2019.

Kronick said her investigations of Venezuela’s electronic voting system and election had led her to conclude that the opposition’s claim was almost certainly correct and that González had therefore won comfortably.

Of last week’s supreme court’s ruling in Maduro’s favour, Kronick said: “I think their attitude is: ‘What are you [the opposition] going to do about it? … Knock yourself out.’”

Many experts believe that that tactic could work and that Maduro will manage to ride out the latest threat to his 11-year rule, just as he survived mass protests in 2017 and the botched 2019 attempt to topple him as well as one of the worst peacetime economic meltdowns in modern history.

It’s a “high probability scenario” that Maduro will start a third-term next January, said Harold Trinkunas, a Stanford University Latin America specialist who studies Venezuela’s politics and military. Maduro’s grip over the armed forces was a major part of why.

But Trinkunas did not believe that Maduro’s inauguration was inevitable. A Bangladesh-style uprising, like the one that forced the prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, to flee in a helicopter, could not be discounted. A gradual negotiated transition to democracy such as the one that ended Pinochet’s military regime, in 1990, was also possible.

Venezuelan history offered a third possible denouement. In December 1957, its dictator, Marcos Pérez Jiménez – who, like Maduro, was notorious for unleashing his secret police on political foes – called a referendum he hoped would help extend his 10-year rule.

“He stole that election, and it was widely perceived as stolen, and the next five weeks saw an increasing buildup of popular mobilisation, street protests and increasing violence,” Trinkunas recalled. “Finally, the generals under him told him he had to go.”

Pérez Jiménez fled Caracas in a presidential plane nicknamed La Vaca Sagrada (The Holy Cow), and was welcomed to the Dominican Republic by its dictator, Rafael Trujillo.

Some wonder whether growing pressure might force Maduro to seek shelter from an ally such as Cuba or Turkey. The US has reportedly offered him amnesty from drug trafficking charges if he steps down. But Maduro, who blames criticism of his election on a US-spawned conspiracy to overthrow his “revolution”, has offered no hint that he will go.

Instead, in a sign of his determination to retain power, he has called a three-day conference in October to discuss plans for his next six-year term, which would run from 2025 to 2031.

That is an agonising, though very real prospect for relatives of those jailed during Maduro’s crackdown, and for millions of Venezuelans who have fled abroad since he took office in 2013.

María De Grazia, whose father was detained by secret police on 7 August, urged the international community to keep up the pressure, “not just to secure my father’s freedom, but the freedom of all Venezuela”.

Américo De Grazia, a 64-year-old opposition politician, is believed to be being held in a notorious political prison and torture centre called El Helicoide.

“We represent peace and they represent torture. We represent freedom and they represent dictatorship,” said María De Grazia, 30, urging the world not to forget her country. “We can’t do it on our own.” The Guardian

[wat0n]

Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice also ruled in favor of the government. Its president had called people to vote for the PSUV, Maduro's party.