- 29 Oct 2017 02:07
#14857022
I find myself hoping that this rather devastating assessment turns out to be an exaggeration. My view of the social sciences has been quite dim for a while now, and economics was one of the few fields that moved the balanced in a more positive direction.
Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences wrote:
The Power of Bias in Economics Research
Tom Stanley, friend of BITSS and one of the leaders of the Meta-Analysis of Economics Research Network (MAER-Net), recently published a paper in The Economic Journal with John Ioannidis and Chris Doucouliagos on statistical power in economics research that should be of interest to the BITSS network.
From Tom:
“The power of bias in economics research” is the first large-scale study of the bias, statistical power, and hence the scientific credibility of economics. A survey of 64,076 economic estimates from 159 areas of research and 6,700 empirical studies finds that the median statistical power is 18%, or less. That is, the probability that an empirical economic investigation is able to identify what it seeks is usually 18%, or less. Impotence begets bias. This survey also identifies widespread bias. Typically, reported economic effects are inflated by 100% with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more. In other words, over half of economic research results are reported to be twice as large as they actually are, and one-third are exaggerated to be four times too big. Lastly, 90% of economics findings are under-powered, relative to the widely accepted convention that 80% defines ‘adequate’ power, for half of these areas of economics research.
Download the paper here.
I find myself hoping that this rather devastating assessment turns out to be an exaggeration. My view of the social sciences has been quite dim for a while now, and economics was one of the few fields that moved the balanced in a more positive direction.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts"
Richard Feynman
Richard Feynman