So we've had enough games now to see how teams are playing. Australia, New Zealand and India are all looking good - no or just one loss. England is underperforming - losses to Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and only in 4th place thanks to Sri Lanka getting half points from 2 rained-off matches they probably would have won.
So England are 2 points ahead of Sri Lanka, but England's final 3 matches are against the top 3, while Sri Lanka face India, South Africa and the West Indies. Form says Sri Lanka should win the latter 2. That would mean England need to win against one of the top 3, and keep their net run rate good (better than Sri Lanka at the moment). By all their current forms, England could easily lose all 3.
Which means the odds still apparently on offer from William Hill and BoyleSports of 12/1 for Sri Lanka to reach the semi-finals are absurd - see
https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/wor ... semi-final (for comparison, the BetFair exchange has them at 20/21). If anyone bets, this is something to take advantage of. I reckon England are going to balls this up.