Wolfman:
How about doing the same without completly destroying our economy?
Cut the bullshit spending (we could happily live on about 40% of our national spending), but keep the same federal tax rates. Doing that would create a massive surplus, which would pay off our debts over a few years.
Me:
I know I’m going to regret this, but here goes once more. Do you plan on cutting the Social Security benefits and continue taking the SS taxes? That would reduce the deficit nicely . Right now, with benefits as they are, and taxes as they are, SS is 245 billion in the black. That money goes straight to treasury to fund the general insanity. This is always a popular suggestion.
The combined social security benefits and Medicare benefits are 51 billion in the black. When you look at expense, they look like juicy targets. The propagandists love to do that.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy ... ummary.pdfDefense spending is a little hard to figure on the positive side, but it contributes. However, it is a net loss.
The interest payment on the national debt is not all red, but the part that goes outside the US is. It’s a little hard to cut.
If you add up defense and payment on the national debt, just how much of your 40 % are you going to have left over.
Much of the recent deficit spending is a desperate attempt to save the dollar. Success is in doubt. Yes, they don’t mind a weaker dollar up to a point, nobody quite knows what that point is, but we will know after we get there. Well maybe not, there seems to be no limit to the gullibility of the American public.
Our debt at present is 12 trillion, and that’s not all of it. The debt only becomes official when bonds are sold to support it. Federal guarantees don’t count until we have to pay them. They remain obligations.
However consider this. 2 % of 12 trillion is 240 billion.
4 % 480
6 % 720
8 % 960
10 % 1.2 Trillion
12 % 1.44
Most of our debt is short term because its cheaper that way. If short term interest rates hold at historically low figures, then fat city. If the dollar falls significantly they will be unable to do that. After all, that’s what inflation really is.
Now in 08, Expense was about 3 trillion.
Intake about 2.5 trillion
Deficit about 0.5 trillion
Now if you cut expense, you can’t simply say that’s how much the deficit will be cut. When you cut expense, you also cut intake. That’s one of the reasons deficit spending looks good. Intake goes up, so does the GDP, and while you come up farther in the hole, it’s not as bad as you would think, especially in relation to GDP. Of course, in an economy that’s smoke and mirrors, what does GDP really mean? Remember waste counts towards the GDP.
However, the one constant in this game that is pretty much locked in is interest on the national debt. The only significant variable other than principal is interest rates. That’s one of the reasons the Fed has been holding interest rates ridiculously low. Obviously, they can’t keep this game up. So as long as you haven’t reduced the national debt, the interest on it is going to be setting there. Slashing expense to 40% is going to play Hell with the economy. If that causes inflation to a degree that they can’t hide it, that means the interest on the national debt goes up. It also means that intake will fall. You can’t say that you are going to get a simple result, because right now, no one knows what the effect of slashing the budget to 40 % would be. If it resulted in short term interest rates going to 12% or greater, then the interest rate payment would be more than half of the annual budget. If interest rates go significantly above 12 % and stays there, the payment could reach a point beyond our means to pay. I doubt very much if the IMF could bail out the United States.
However, the point is moot, because the Obama administration is not about to do it now. Four years from now, who knows what interest rates will be? One thing is certain, the national debt will be higher, a lot higher, and the payment on it will be higher. If they replaced Obama with a competent President and replaced Congress with a competent Congress, it would still be almost impossible to straighten this mess out. The odds on that happening are close to infinity to one. On the other hand, if you get an incompetent President, always a good bet, and an incompetent Congress, almost a sure thing, then the hyperinflation bet is a reasonable possibility.
“Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler”, A. Einstein
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.” A. Einstein.