[JohnRawls]

It is a bit too early for this but we all know it is coming so why not start it now?

Predictions:
1) Biden wins by a big land slide. (Land slide is not a given but he will probably win by a decent margin)
2) Republicans fully enter their civil war stage and the party might even collapse or fracture.
3) If Republican party doesn't fracture then real soul searching will have to begin within the party on how to proceed forward unless they want to be the forever losers. This will be the 5th or 6th election in a row when they are going to suck massive PP that goes all beyond the general rules and cycles of US elections.

Discuss!?!?!?!

[late]

It is a bit too early for this but we all know it is coming so why not start it now?

Predictions:
1) Biden wins by a big land slide. (Land slide is not a given but he will probably win by a decent margin)
2) Republicans fully enter their civil war stage and the party might even collapse or fracture.
3) If Republican party doesn't fracture then real soul searching will have to begin within the party on how to proceed forward unless they want to be the forever losers. This will be the 5th or 6th election in a row when they are going to suck massive PP that goes all beyond the general rules and cycles of US elections.

Discuss!?!?!?!

I think Biden will win, that's as far as I go. Republicans are cheating like mad, well, actually they are cheating like psychotics..

If the Repukes lose, I expect it to fracture, possibly die. One possibility is that it remains as a party for Right wing extremists, a new party forms that is Center/Right (which is the traditional stance for Republicans, in the early 70s there were still liberal Republicans, although they were scarce even then). But the problem is what happens if states cheat massively. That could get very ugly, very quickly.

We haven't been this conflicted since the Civil War. I'd love to sit down with the ghost of FDR and ask him if he still thought building up the South was a good idea.

[JohnRawls]

I think Biden will win, that's as far as I go. Republicans are cheating like mad, well, actually they are cheating like psychotics..

If the Repukes lose, I expect it to fracture, possibly die. One possibility is that it remains as a party for Right wing extremists, a new party forms that is Center/Right (which is the traditional stance for Republicans, in the early 70s there were still liberal Republicans, although they were scarce even then). But the problem is what happens if states cheat massively. That could get very ugly, very quickly.

We haven't been this conflicted since the Civil War. I'd love to sit down with the ghost of FDR and ask him if he still thought building up the South was a good idea.

How are Republicans supposed to win this? They have sidelined even large parts of hardcore old republicans and independent republicans. Sure they will probably fall in line but they have totally lost unaligned independents that are usually the most important group who swings elections. They are going to get massacred. Trump ain't helping also with his border/not helping Ukraine bullshit and taking all of the US government hostage.

This all assumes Trump is the Republican candidate and not Nicky. Nicky probably has advantage against Biden and highly likely could beat him but that is not going to happen by the looks of it.

[Beren]

It is a bit too early for this but we all know it is coming so why not start it now?

Predictions:
1) Biden wins by a big land slide. (Land slide is not a given but he will probably win by a decent margin)
2) Republicans fully enter their civil war stage and the party might even collapse or fracture.
3) If Republican party doesn't fracture then real soul searching will have to begin within the party on how to proceed forward unless they want to be the forever losers. This will be the 5th or 6th election in a row when they are going to suck massive PP that goes all beyond the general rules and cycles of US elections.

Discuss!?!?!?!

If Biden wins by a big land slide or a decent margin, then the main problem of the GOP will be solved and they can go ahead leaving Trump behind, why would they fracture or collapse?

[JohnRawls]

If Biden wins by a big land slide or a decent margin, then the main problem of the GOP will be solved and they can go ahead leaving Trump behind, why would they fracture or collapse? :?:

Because the Trumpists will not disappear?

[late]

How are Republicans supposed to win this? They have sidelined even large parts of hardcore old republicans and independent republicans. Sure they will probably fall in line but they have totally lost unaligned independents that are usually the most important group who swings elections. They are going to get massacred. Trump ain't helping also with his border/not helping Ukraine bullshit and taking all of the US government hostage.

This all assumes Trump is the Republican candidate and not Nicky. Nicky probably has advantage against Biden and highly likely could beat him but that is not going to happen by the looks of it.

They cheat their ass off, it winds up in the court, and just like 2000 they hand it to the Republican.

[Beren]

Because the Trumpists will not disappear?

But Trump will, and he's going to take Trumpism with himself, and the whole thing disappears sooner or later. If Trump loses as you predict, the GOP will be saved and relieved.

[JohnRawls]

But Trump will, and he's going to take Trumpism with himself, and the whole thing disappears sooner or later. If Trump loses as you predict, the GOP will be saved and relieved.

Oh no, no, no. This jack in the box has been let loose long ago and there are people beyond just Trump or Russian bots/manipulation that inflamed the flames. They are a decent chunk of the Republican base right now from 15-20%. They are people at the end of the day so the fun part is that it is a problem that Republicans let loose thinking that it will give them more power but it spectacularly backfired in their face.

[JohnRawls]

They cheat their ass off, it winds up in the court, and just like 2000 they hand it to the Republican.

Ain't gonna happen. US institutions are strong. One thing is to whine on social media and spout bullshit, a whole another level is to try an insurection that they already did and failed and got prosecuted for but not all have been punished. One of the main reasons why all independants have abandoned the Republicans if Trump is the candidate. Even their own party is not happy. I mean, if you put all interest of independents in to category of we don't give a shit then why should they support you? And there are just too many of them.

[Beren]

Oh no, no, no. This jack in the box has been let loose long ago and there are people beyond just Trump or Russian bots/manipulation that inflamed the flames. They are a decent chunk of the Republican base right now from 15-20%. They are people at the end of the day so the fun part is that it is a problem that Republicans let loose thinking that it will give them more power but it spectacularly backfired in their face.

The GOP may lose some of its base, especially in presidential elections, for a while indeed.

[Rugoz]

Turnout is arguably more important than winning over centrists/independents.

Trump can certainly win this. As experience from other countries shows, people are oblivious to democratic backsliding in a highly partisan political environment.

If the economy gets a lot worse before November for example, I wouldn't bet on Biden.

[Beren]

Trump could win if it was only up to the electorate but it's going to be his Waterloo instead. It's an illusion that it's possible to prevail against the establishment. Trump could win in 2016 only because the establishment preferred him to the Clintons, who could have got too influential if they'd returned to the White House, and the Obama camp and the left-wing of the Democratic Party were especially uninterested in a Clinton victory. Besides being in charge of major urban centres all over the country the Democrats are also in control of the top battleground states except Florida, and I really wonder if DeSantis is really such a huge fan of Trump or he'd rather kick him in the arse out of Florida if he could.

[late]

Trump could win if it was only up to the electorate but it's going to be his Waterloo instead. It's an illusion that it's possible to prevail against the establishment. Trump could win in 2016 only because the establishment preferred him to the Clintons, who could have got too influential if they'd returned to the White House, and the Obama camp and the left-wing of the Democratic Party were especially uninterested in a Clinton victory. Besides being in charge of major urban centres all over the country the Democrats are also in control of the top battleground states except Florida, and I really wonder if DeSantis is really such a huge fan of Trump or he'd rather kick him in the arse out of Florida if he could.

Trump got 4 million fewer votes in 2016, 7 million fewer in 2020. If it was up to the electorate, he would never have won.

[Beren]

Trump got 4 million fewer votes in 2016, 7 million fewer in 2020. If it was up to the electorate, he would never have won.

However, he still would have some chance with the voters, while he wouldn't have any with the establishment.

[Rugoz]

Trump could win if it was only up to the electorate but it's going to be his Waterloo instead. It's an illusion that it's possible to prevail against the establishment. Trump could win in 2016 only because the establishment preferred him to the Clintons, who could have got too influential if they'd returned to the White House, and the Obama camp and the left-wing of the Democratic Party were especially uninterested in a Clinton victory. Besides being in charge of major urban centres all over the country the Democrats are also in control of the top battleground states except Florida, and I really wonder if DeSantis is really such a huge fan of Trump or he'd rather kick him in the arse out of Florida if he could.

Oh look, MAGA conspiracy shit.

[JohnRawls]

Trump could win if it was only up to the electorate but it's going to be his Waterloo instead. It's an illusion that it's possible to prevail against the establishment. Trump could win in 2016 only because the establishment preferred him to the Clintons, who could have got too influential if they'd returned to the White House, and the Obama camp and the left-wing of the Democratic Party were especially uninterested in a Clinton victory. Besides being in charge of major urban centres all over the country the Democrats are also in control of the top battleground states except Florida, and I really wonder if DeSantis is really such a huge fan of Trump or he'd rather kick him in the arse out of Florida if he could.

Conspiracy 101s are coming

[Beren]

Is it really a blasphemy on PoFo that politics is very much about conspiracies and power plays within the ruling class?

[JohnRawls]

Is it really a blasphemy on PoFo that politics is always about conspiracies?

The idea that "The Estblishment" or some "Devious Group XXX" is all power is a conspiracy theory. Every election, especially in systems takes all, are basically 2 coalitions of very wide interests coming together to elect somebody. We call them the Democrats and Republicans in America. Each of those groups consists of MANY interests which conflict against each other in many cases. The fact that you think that "The Establishment" is preventing somebody from getting elected is a buzz word for somebody being a shit candidate and not being able to manage that interest within their own party or independents and has always been that way. So it is a moot point to complain about it.

And this is the point that I was making. Trump is a shit candidate that harms the interest groups within the Republican party and alienates all independents who are not Republican or Democrat. Sure he gets the die hards in exchange but die hards are a vast minority compared to everyone else. The long story sure, he managed to fortify his candidacy forever but he will never win this way.

When you follow your own radicals and tell lets say tell softcore Republicans like the military or pro-business to fuck off while also saying to all independent "Who the fuck are you? You are not even R party members!" then what do you expect? The military interest in the Republican party will vastly vote for Biden now. Pro-business is a good question but it is not a secret that Trump hates them and they hate him in return. Not supporting Ukraine by itself is not a popular choice among the American electorate either.

There were many examples of this. I remember there was a case of not let promotions in the military and other ranks because of some internal Republican issue also.

[Beren]

The idea that "The Estblishment" or some "Devious Group XXX" is all power is a conspiracy theory.

It's not really a conspiracy theory, it's just a vulgarity or oversimplification and I certainly didn't say it.

[late]

The idea that "The Estblishment" or some "Devious Group XXX" is all power is a conspiracy theory.

There are a lot of power groups, and they fight with each other, and sometimes they form alliances.

The Military Industrial Complex has a long standing alliance that is prob permanent with Big Ag. For no good reason, the Ag Dept cuts all the payroll checks. So if Congress tried to really audit the military, suddenly there is a technical problem, and everyone in Congress doesn't get their paycheck.

There are a ton of players, Billionaires have an absurd amount of power, they can afford it. Banks, Wall St, manufacturing, mining, and a thousand others have varying degrees of influence.

One of the reasons people that understand this keep hammering on income inequality is that this is corruption, and it's getting worse.