[JohnRawls]

War or no war?

China holds military drills around Taiwan as 'strong punishment'

China has started two days of military exercises around Taiwan, with its military calling them "strong punishment" for the self-ruled island's "separatist acts".
The drills come three days after the inauguration of President William Lai, who called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control, but the island sees itself as distinct.
Taiwan's defence ministry condemned the Chinese drills as "irrational provocations".
Taipei dispatched naval, air, and ground forces to "defend the [island's] sovereignty", its defence ministry said.
Thursday's drills for the first time simulated a full-scale attack, Taiwanese military experts said, rather than an economic blockade.
The exercises took place all around the main island, and for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin which lie close to the Chinese coast, according to maps released by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
The drills also included a component to the east of Taiwan - the island's rugged east coast on the other side of a mountain range has long been its military redoubt.
Taiwan has built much of its hardened military infrastructure along this coast, including a large underground airbase inside a mountain near the city of Hualien. It is also close to Japan’s southern islands, and a natural resupply route.
By sending naval and air patrols to the east of Taiwan, China aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
The PLA said its drills focused on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, precision strikes on key targets, and integrated operations inside and outside the island to test the "joint real combat capabilities" of its forces.
Taiwanese media cited military expert Chieh Chung saying the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan".
map
China has repeatedly rehearsed encircling Taiwan with fighter jets and navy ships over the past year. Taipei had reported an uptick in incursions into Taiwanese waters and airspace in the run-up to Mr Lai's inauguration.
China carried out its first “encirclement” operation in August 2022, following a historic visit by then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, simulating a blockade of the main island of Taiwan with ships, aircraft and missile strikes.
The PLA said Thursday's drills were a "strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces."
Meanwhile China's foreign ministry insisted the drills were a "necessary and legitimate move" to safeguard national sovereignty.
"I need to stress that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. This is both a fact based on history and the true status quo. This will not change in the future. Taiwan independence is doomed to fail," spokesman Wang Wenbin said.
In his inauguration address last Monday, Mr Lai called on China to "stop threatening Taiwan".
Beijing denounced the speech, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi describing Mr Lai as "disgraceful".
After Mr Lai's election victory last January, Beijing issued a statement insisting that "Taiwan is part of China". It has also repeatedly rebuffed Mr Lai's offers for talks.
Beijing has previously labelled Mr Lai a "separatist" and "troublemaker" over remarks he made in the past supporting Taiwanese independence.
Taiwan's defence ministry said the drills on Thursday "highlight [Beijing's] militaristic mentality".
"In recent years, the continuous harassment by Chinese aircraft and ships has significantly harmed global peace and stability," it said.
Taiwan’s presidential office has said it was “regrettable” to see China “using unilateral military provocations to threaten Taiwan's democracy and freedom”.
Meanwhile Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council - which oversees relations with China - said Taiwan's aim of maintaining cross-strait peace has not changed.
"Beijing should understand that its intimidating tactics will not win hearts and minds," said spokesman Liang Wen-chieh.
While China and Taiwan remain trading partners, they no longer have a formal channel of communication and much of the world offers diplomatic recognition to China, but not Taiwan.
Analysts say Bejing’s claims have become far louder and unyielding under Xi Jinping, who has repeatedly stressed that “reunification” will happen - most recently in December, weeks before Taiwan’s election.
So far, China's military manoeuvres around Taiwan have fallen short of an invasion and stayed within a grey zone.
Analysts have told the BBC that grey zone warfare tactics are aimed at weakening an adversary over a prolonged period - and say that is exactly what China is trying to do with Taiwan.
China and Taiwan - the basics
Why do China and Taiwan have poor relations? China sees the self-ruled island as a part of its territory and insists it should be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Taiwan sees itself as distinct
How is Taiwan governed? The island has its own constitution, democratically elected leaders, and about 300,000 active troops in its armed forces
Who recognises Taiwan? Only a few countries recognise Taiwan. Most recognise the Chinese government in Beijing instead. The US has no official ties with Taiwan but does have a law which requires it to provide the island with the means to defend itself

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqvv29gpqn1o

[JohnRawls]

Not sure why people are not thinking that this time is not serious. There are many global factors that are moving more in the China will overstep direction than before:

1) Bad economic situation in China. (Chinese economic model being on decline? Failing is a bit too much to say right now?)
2) Xi actually needing a conflict to re-ignite his support among the party and people (Putins way)
3) Time wise, if we compare it to Russia than as I said before China is around 5-10 years behind Russia in its behavior due to its level of development. Perhaps it was 3 years.
4) A clear reason and election of a very unfavourable candidate compared to even before. (Casus Beli of sorts for internal explanation)
5) Timing. China won't get a better time to do this in the next 50 years... (US is sort of already busy helping Ukraine and assisting a bit to Israel. Although different weapons will be used they are still counted in dollars)

I might be wrong obviously but this might be one of those times that the obvious scaremongering is actually way more scarier than most think.

[Skynet]

Timing. China won't get a better time to do this in the next 50 years... (US is sort of already busy helping Ukraine and assisting a bit to Israel. Although different weapons will be used they are still counted in dollars)

@JohnRawls This will a limited WW3 cause not a total war but limited WW3.

This will determine if autoritarianism or liberal democracy will be the ruling force on the planet.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls This will a limited WW3 cause not a total war but limited WW3.

This will determine if autoritarianism or liberal democracy will be the ruling force on the planet.

War doesn't decide this. To rule the world you have to win the war and peace. Soviet Union won several wars but it always lost the peace for example. War for one place or several places is not that simple.

Loss of Afghanistan or loss in Korea did not stop the USSR from being a superpower the same way as Vietnam didn't stop US from being a superpower or ruling idea/ideology.

Your idea is basically over semplistic irrelevant of who wins or looses.

[Skynet]

@JohnRawls You might be right but Taiwan is not a 3rd world country like Korea in the 50s or Afghanistan. Taiwan produced about 90% of sophisticated semiconductors on this planet!

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls You might be right but Taiwan is not a 3rd world country like Korea in the 50s or Afghanistan. Taiwan produced about 90% of sophisticated semiconductors on this planet!

They do around 50% but thats irrelevant. They have the fabs sure but all those fabs are kinda useless if nobody can't work with them and if equipment is destroyed or doesn't work(which ASML can shut down remotely) or doesn't get serviced.

When it comes to semiconductors having fabs is just one part, having the architecture know-how, software and so on is as much as important. Just making a 5nm semiconductor lets say by itself is good but not even half of it.

So all that industry will go down in flames in case of war and if Taiwan gets occupied heavily impoverishing the country.

[Skynet]

@JohnRawls

TSMC (officially Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) produces an estimated 90% of the world's super-advanced semiconductor chips.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/22/tech ... plications.

TSMC threatened to kill switch the litography machines but I doubt it, TMSC could continue to exist even under CCP rule...

[Fasces]

Not sure why people are not thinking that this time is not serious.

What the fuck...?

1) Bad economic situation in China. (Chinese economic model being on decline? Failing is a bit too much to say right now?)
2) Xi actually needing a conflict to re-ignite his support among the party and people (Putins way)
3) Time wise, if we compare it to Russia than as I said before China is around 5-10 years behind Russia in its behavior due to its level of development. Perhaps it was 3 years.
4) A clear reason and election of a very unfavourable candidate compared to even before. (Casus Beli of sorts for internal explanation)
5) Timing. China won't get a better time to do this in the next 50 years... (US is sort of already busy helping Ukraine and assisting a bit to Israel. Although different weapons will be used they are still counted in dollars)

1) Not the case. Chinese economy outperformed forecasts for 2024 so far.

2) Xi hasn't lost significant amounts of support.

3) China's aim is to have peer capacity in the first island chain by 2027, by their own white papers and Western intelligence. 2024 is premature.

4) Ding ding. Extremist politician uses extreme rhetoric, goads an extreme response. (See: Spain-Argentina spat or Greece-North Macedonia spat which are concurrent)

5) Assumes a lot about the trajectory of both China and the US.

I might be wrong obviously but this might be one of those times that the obvious scaremongering is actually way more scarier than most think.

Don't scare yourself too much.

TSMC threatened to kill switch the litography machines but I doubt it, TMSC could continue to exist even under CCP rule...

Taiwan had to pass laws banning TMSC engineers from willingly moving to China for better pay and working conditions.

I guess threatening their families with imprisonment is better than just paying them better.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls


TSMC threatened to kill switch the litography machines but I doubt it, TMSC could continue to exist even under CCP rule...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/867 ... ket-share/

TSMC marketshare is 60% and not all fabs are in Taiwan just saying. They have around 12 in Taiwan, 2-3 in USA with 2 more under consturction and then 2 in Japan and 2 in Europe. So what is it then 12 in Taiwan 7 abroad.

The most advanced ones are also produced by Samsung and some others which can technically include intel since they overcompensate by architecture nowadays but not on the smallest node.

TSMC can't exist under CCP rule because it uses orders from massive companies like apple, nvidia, amd etc to fill in the their orders. That is the reason why they have the advantage of size and quantity to improve. If US and EU sanctions TSMC then there will be no orders so there won't be a business case on one end. On the other end, there is a multitude of services, equipment manufacturers and special providers that are required to run those process without which proper 7nm, 5nm and lower can't really exist. Having machines by themselves is kinda meaningless if you don't know how to properly service or maintain them along with everything else. Its not like China never seen those machines before but they are super complicated and are made with precision that China can't build which incompasses many fields.

And if you think that US and EU won't sanction China after Taiwan invasion then you haven't been paying attention.

[JohnRawls]

What the fuck...?



1) Not the case. Chinese economy outperformed forecasts for 2024 so far.

2) Xi hasn't lost significant amounts of support.

3) China's aim is to have peer capacity in the first island chain by 2027, by their own white papers and Western intelligence. 2024 is premature.

4) Ding ding. Extremist politician uses extreme rhetoric, goads an extreme response. (See: Spain-Argentina spat or Greece-North Macedonia spat which are concurrent)

5) Assumes a lot about the trajectory of both China and the US.



Don't scare yourself too much.



Taiwan had to pass laws banning TMSC engineers from willingly moving to China for better pay and working conditions.

I guess threatening their families with imprisonment is better than just paying them better.

May be Fasces, I am not saying its a certainty. This time there are just many factors that might lead to this. At least there are way more than before. I wouldn't say that Chinese economy is doing good by the way. Even if you ignore everything else, net foreign investment is in negative or at the lowest point in decades.

[Fasces]

I wouldn't say that Chinese economy is doing good by the way. Even if you ignore everything else, net foreign investment is in negative or at the lowest point in decades.

I didn't say it was all sunshine and roses, but Xi is hardly in Gatlieri's position here.

Net foreign investment is down - part of this is the decoupling of Anglo capital from China post-Covid, and part of it is a deliberate effort from China to replace foreign investment with domestic investment as part of its fiscal strategy for replacing real estate investment among the general population.

[skinster]

at warmongering shitlibs.

[JohnRawls]

I didn't say it was all sunshine and roses, but Xi is hardly in Gatlieri's position here.

Net foreign investment is down - part of this is the decoupling of Anglo capital from China post-Covid, and part of it is a deliberate effort from China to replace foreign investment with domestic investment as part of its fiscal strategy for replacing real estate investment among the general population.

Well, here is the problem. China was acustomed to much faster growth and its still at 10k gdp per capita nominal a bit more now I think. That is still folds less than Europe or USA and that is mostly for "developed" places without counting a lot of rural population that Chinese statistics for some reason like to disregard.

This was the cause for Russian invasion for Ukraine 2014 and 2022. Putin was doing great before 2008-2009ish because economy grew fast. As soon as the growth slows and stagnates, it creates political/socioeconomic discontent.

@skinster

That is what your cohort said about Russia February 2022. You know it, I know it, lets not pretend here.

[Fasces]

China was acustomed to much faster growth and its still at 10k gdp per capita nominal a bit more now I think. That is still folds less than Europe or USA and that is mostly for "developed" places without counting a lot of rural population that Chinese statistics for some reason like to disregard.

Cost of living is significantly cheaper. Around 20% what I spent on rent in a US or Spanish city, even if buying an apartment is often 100-200%. Food is around 25%. Entertainment around 15-25%. Train and planes are significantly cheaper as well. What I earned in one year, and yes I fully recognize it was well above norm, was nonetheless enough for me to live off for 2 years without any significant effort to control my spending, and with 2-3 vacations abroad a year. 10k per year in China feels like 20-30k in the West - which does a lot to mitigate any 'unrest' from the population.

There are underdeveloped rural areas - though here we get into 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' territory regarding how the West approaches things. If China builds a HSR line to a marginalized area, it is criticized as financially unsustainable. Regional schools that require 5 night boarding by students to serve large areas that otherwise couldn't have proper schools is treated as 'kidnapping children from families'. Investment into regional infrastructure is called 'corruption' or 'building ghost cities'.

China did conciously decide on an approach of bootstrap development that depends on a few areas being highly developed so that they can then finance the areas of lagging development, rather than developing everywhere a little more equitably. Of course, with the demographics China (and the rest of the world) face this may actually prove to be wise - even if China's population declines, in the short-to-medium term the cities and major areas of development are not.

That being said, there are vast swathes of abysmal development in every country that gets washed over in general statistics - West Virginia is one of the most depressing areas I've ever visited, and Spanish villages seem stuck in the 50s but are rapidly disappearing. The UK government seems utterly unable to build anything outside of London. Even Estonia's countryside is developmentally stagnant and suffering population collapse. To say governments ignoring rural areas when patting themselves on the back is uniquely a Chinese sin seems a stretch.

[JohnRawls]

Cost of living is significantly cheaper. Around 20% what I spent on rent in a US or Spanish city, even if buying an apartment is often 100-200%. Food is around 25%. Entertainment around 15-25%. Train and planes are significantly cheaper as well. What I earned in one year, and yes I fully recognize it was well above norm, was nonetheless enough for me to live off for 2 years without any significant effort to control my spending, and with 2-3 vacations abroad a year. 10k per year in China feels like 20-30k in the West - which does a lot to mitigate any 'unrest' from the population.

There are underdeveloped rural areas - though here we get into 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' territory regarding how the West approaches things. If China builds a HSR line to a marginalized area, it is criticized as financially unsustainable. Regional schools that require 5 night boarding by students to serve large areas that otherwise couldn't have proper schools is treated as 'kidnapping children from families'. Investment into regional infrastructure is called 'corruption' or 'building ghost cities'.

China did conciously decide on an approach of bootstrap development that depends on a few areas being highly developed so that they can then finance the areas of lagging development, rather than developing everywhere a little more equitably. Of course, with the demographics China (and the rest of the world) face this may actually prove to be wise - even if China's population declines, in the short-to-medium term the cities and major areas of development are not.

That being said, there are vast swathes of abysmal development in every country that gets washed over in general statistics - West Virginia is one of the most depressing areas I've ever visited, and Spanish villages seem stuck in the 50s but are rapidly disappearing. The UK government seems utterly unable to build anything outside of London. Even Estonia's countryside is developmentally stagnant and suffering population collapse. To say governments ignoring rural areas when patting themselves on the back is uniquely a Chinese sin seems a stretch.

Obviously its understandable to some degree what you mean but there is some underlying problematic logic with it. A lot of things are sold for nominal price instead of locally adjusted and this is where nominal understanding comes to play. The goods that you purchase for everyday life is usually all locally produced irrelevant of country you are in (food, some checmichals for body washing, dish washing etc) But there are plenty of goods that are sold for nominal price even if they are manufactured locally (Cars, Computers, Machinery, foods that can't grow in your country x, etc etc etc)

Usually unless you are in a severely unstable country politically or economically then locally manufactured things are in fine shape but as people usually want more of what they see they wanna get it. While this is an simplification but you should understand the general idea. It might be anything really not just goods but services. And then those nominal conversions come in actually. Larger housing, better cars, better education etc etc etc That is just how we are. And if people see that life is not moving in that direction then it causes instability, especially in broke down places that any government is not taking care of.

The Europe and US function exactly the same in this regard and really no country functions differently unless there are no communications with the outside world at all. The USSR kinda fell to this problem but their economy was way, way, way worse than China for obvious reasons of full state planning and militarisation. China moved away from that but there are signs that Xi kinda wanna move back a bit at least if not more than a bit. The reason why Europe and US have it a bit better is because we usually have the first mover advantage and that "new" stuff comes from Europe or US that everyone wants whatever it might be. And since China focuses on copying stuff especially as of late then China is in inherent disadvantage. Note I am not saying that China doesn't invent its own stuff but for now, China is mostly copying while EU and US are mostly inventing something new.

[Rancid]

I say war happens.

China gets its way.

[Rancid]

Well, here is the problem. China was acustomed to much faster growth and its still at 10k gdp per capita nominal a bit more now I think. That is still folds less than Europe or USA and that is mostly for "developed" places without counting a lot of rural population that Chinese statistics for some reason like to disregard.

This was the cause for Russian invasion for Ukraine 2014 and 2022. Putin was doing great before 2008-2009ish because economy grew fast. As soon as the growth slows and stagnates, it creates political/socioeconomic discontent.

@skinster

That is what your cohort said about Russia February 2022. You know it, I know it, lets not pretend here.

Classic case that authoritarian regimes require higher (and unsustainable) levels of growth to maintain stability.

[Unthinking Majority]

I say war happens.

China gets its way.

If China takes the island, the US will probably destroy all of the key chip infrastructure on its way out. A bunch of the vital IT folks will probably defect.

The Biden admin is currently doing what it can to get as much domestic chip infrastructure/know-how as it can. Chips are like the new oil.

[Rancid]

If China takes the island, the US will probably destroy all of the key chip infrastructure on its way out. A bunch of the vital IT folks will probably defect.

The Biden admin is currently doing what it can to get as much domestic chip infrastructure/know-how as it can. Chips are like the new oil.

I don't think Xi cares about that. He's a man of history. Taking the island itself is all he needs to cement himself in history. The island could be complete rubble, doesn't matter. In his eyes, it would be a win.

[Fasces]

Xi is a true believer. Putin wasn't, but may have become one. Xi was one from the start. True believers are always dangerous.