- 16 Aug 2004 11:31
#407124
Who will control the US Senate after the upcoming elections?
We have looked at the House of Representatives. Now a chance to look at the outcome of the upcoming Senate elections.
Currently the Senate is controlled by the Republicans 51-48, with one, nominally Democrat, independent. 34 Senate seats are up for election this year, 19 of them currently held by the Democrats, and 15 by the GOP. Of these the Democrats have 5 open seats up in November and the GOP has 3 open seats. (An open seat is one in which no incumbant is running. Normally incumbancy will almost guarentee re-election)
The 5 open Democrat senate spots are all in Southern states - Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. I believe they are particully vulnerable in the Carolina's. The extremely conservatice Zell Miller currently holds the South Carolina spot and he is retiring. I predict his senate seat will be won by the Republicans. In North Carolina the Democrats will have a hard time holding onto the spot which John Edwards now holds. Minority leader Daschle also has a battle on his hands in South Dakota. However, I believe he will be able to hold on to his senate spot, in part because of the amount of money he has to spend on the campaign.
From the Republicans point of view - they have 3 open seats up this year, in Colarado, Oklahoma and Illinois. I think the Democrat Barack Obama has basically sealed victory in Illinois already, as he is a strong candidate going up against Keyes - a relatively weak candidate. Although some pundits see the Democrats as mounting a strong challenge in Oklahoma, I find it doubtful that the Democrats could pick a senate seat in Oklahoma. Colarado may be interesting to watch - I am unsure about this senate spot. The GOP may also be vulverable in Alaska, where the incumbant republican was appointed by her governor father in 2002. It seems this may have created some anger amonst Alaskans. I do not know too much about this and am unsure who will win the seat.
Overall I am predicting the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate. The Democrats will pick up Illinois and, in my opinion, at best, two other senate spots from the Republicans. However, the challenge that the Democrats face in the South will prove too great. So I predict the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate, with a slightly increased majoity (perhaps 52-47-1)
I have included in the poll the option of tie. Because Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont will probably side with the Democrats this is an interesting option. Essentially the Democrats will only need to hold 49 Senate seats for a tie to occur. If this happens, control of the Senate will be determined by the Vice President.
We have looked at the House of Representatives. Now a chance to look at the outcome of the upcoming Senate elections.
Currently the Senate is controlled by the Republicans 51-48, with one, nominally Democrat, independent. 34 Senate seats are up for election this year, 19 of them currently held by the Democrats, and 15 by the GOP. Of these the Democrats have 5 open seats up in November and the GOP has 3 open seats. (An open seat is one in which no incumbant is running. Normally incumbancy will almost guarentee re-election)
The 5 open Democrat senate spots are all in Southern states - Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. I believe they are particully vulnerable in the Carolina's. The extremely conservatice Zell Miller currently holds the South Carolina spot and he is retiring. I predict his senate seat will be won by the Republicans. In North Carolina the Democrats will have a hard time holding onto the spot which John Edwards now holds. Minority leader Daschle also has a battle on his hands in South Dakota. However, I believe he will be able to hold on to his senate spot, in part because of the amount of money he has to spend on the campaign.
From the Republicans point of view - they have 3 open seats up this year, in Colarado, Oklahoma and Illinois. I think the Democrat Barack Obama has basically sealed victory in Illinois already, as he is a strong candidate going up against Keyes - a relatively weak candidate. Although some pundits see the Democrats as mounting a strong challenge in Oklahoma, I find it doubtful that the Democrats could pick a senate seat in Oklahoma. Colarado may be interesting to watch - I am unsure about this senate spot. The GOP may also be vulverable in Alaska, where the incumbant republican was appointed by her governor father in 2002. It seems this may have created some anger amonst Alaskans. I do not know too much about this and am unsure who will win the seat.
Overall I am predicting the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate. The Democrats will pick up Illinois and, in my opinion, at best, two other senate spots from the Republicans. However, the challenge that the Democrats face in the South will prove too great. So I predict the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate, with a slightly increased majoity (perhaps 52-47-1)
I have included in the poll the option of tie. Because Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont will probably side with the Democrats this is an interesting option. Essentially the Democrats will only need to hold 49 Senate seats for a tie to occur. If this happens, control of the Senate will be determined by the Vice President.
- By Rich
- By Bill_Nye
- By Potemkin